Josh Shepardson | Sun, Jun 7th 2026, 6:54am EDT

4 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2026)

Most players are worthwhile fantasy football selections at a certain point in drafts. However, the following players are undesirable selections near their average draft position (ADP).

A few of the players have varying injury concerns, but in the interest of casting a wider net, not every suggested player is featured due to those concerns.

Fantasy Football Busts

Trey McBride (TE – AR) | ADP: 17.3 (TE1)

I’m not enamored with Brock Bowers at his ADP. However, Trey McBride is selected as the TE1, and the opportunity cost for picking him with a top-20 selection is too steep.

McBride was the TE1 in total half-PPR points (252.9) and half-PPR points per game (14.9) in 2025. He was undeniably sensational last year.

Things broke perfectly for McBride, though. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, McBride’s 667 routes run were the most by a tight end in 2025, 156 clear of Travis Kelce‘s 511 routes in second.

The gap of 156 routes between McBride and Kelce would have been only six fewer than what Terrance Ferguson ran last year and ranked 54th among tight ends, ahead of Darren Waller and Elijah Arroyo.

The Cardinals were first in pass rate over expectation (7.3% PROE) last season, and Jacoby Brissett peppered McBride with targets. Arizona shouldn’t be expected to lead the NFL in PROE again, with Mike LaFleur as their new head coach and play-caller.

In addition, Brissett shouldn’t be expected to start the entire season. He’s currently holding out. The Cardinals also signed Gardner Minshew in free agency as a viable backup, and they picked Carson Beck with the first pick in the third round (65th overall) in this year’s NFL Draft.

Arizona is going nowhere, and it would behoove them to get Beck reps, even if only to evaluate whether he could be their cost-controlled backup behind a franchise quarterback they pick in next year’s draft.

Expecting McBride to lap the field at tight end in routes is unwise, and he could be saddled by rookie quarterback play during the fantasy playoffs. McBride is an outstanding player, but his ADP as a second-round pick is too high.

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) | ADP: 28.3 (WR12)

Malik Nabers was recently spotted moving gingerly after homering in a celebrity softball game.

Malik Nabers homered in his first at bat. Singled in his second. pic.twitter.com/GPYlRKHa2J

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) May 31, 2026

As expected, the response on Twitter has been measured and not reactionary. Bad joke aside, Nabers underwent a “cleanup” procedure on his right knee earlier in the offseason, removing scar tissue that was causing stiffness in his surgically repaired knee. Nabers’ first surgery was for a torn ACL and a full meniscus repair.

The multi-ligament procedure was already a red flag, and the secondary surgery is another. The following thread is informative on Nabers’ timeline and performance expectations for this season.

???????? Everyone is talking about Malik Nabers‘ knee “cleanup” surgery, but the public is completely misinterpreting the timeline.

As a PT, I dove into the peer-reviewed research on his exact injuries.

If you are drafting him at his current ADP, read this thread first. ????

— Brandon PT DPT (@FantasyFootyPT) June 4, 2026

Drafting Nabers as a WR1 in 12-team leagues or larger is entirely too ambitious given the significance of his injury and the likelihood of him missing time early in the year.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | ADP: 43 (WR19)

Garrett Wilson has played four seasons since the Jets drafted him 10th overall in 2022. Among wide receivers who played at least six games in each of their four years in the NFL, Wilson has finished tied for WR30 in half-PPR points per game (10.2), tied for the WR39 (9.7), tied for the WR22 (11.8) and the WR15 (11.6).

Wilson was basically a one-person show in the passing attack before he got hurt last season, resulting in a career-best WR15 finish in half-PPR points per game. He’s finished as a WR2 in 12-team leagues only one other time in his career.

Wilson still has questionable quarterback play, an unexciting play-calling offensive coordinator in Frank Reich and more target competition.

Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in the regular season last year, Geno Smith was 22nd in passing yards per game (201.7), 35th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.44), 24th in completion percentage over expectation (0.9% CPOE) and 27th in off-target throw rate (17.4%).

Finally, the Jets spent first-round picks on tight end Kenyon Sadiq and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., and Wilson didn’t have any overlapping games with Adonai Mitchell after the Jets traded for him last year. None of those three players is an accomplished pass-catching weapon at the NFL level, as two are incoming rookies.

Still, Sadiq and Cooper fetched meaningful draft capital, and Mitchell earned 0.26 targets per route run and a 52.6% air yards share in his eight games with the Jets. Wilson is likely being drafted closer to his ceiling than his median outcome for 2026.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | ADP: 52.3 (RB23)

Bucky Irving‘s electrifying 2024 rookie campaign feels like a distant memory after his inefficient and injury-plagued 2025 sophomore season. Among 49 running backs with at least 100 rush attempts last year, Irving recorded the following rushing statistics (ranking in parentheses):

58.8 rushing yards per game (23rd)
3.40 yards per carry (49th)
1.62 yards before contact per attempt (43rd)
1.78 yards after contact per attempt (46th)
0.13 missed tackles forced per attempt (tied-31st)
2.3% explosive run rate (43rd)
50.3% stuff rate (44th)
42.2% success rate (46th)
0.0% rate of rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (tied-48th)
1 rushing touchdown (tied-46th)

Irving’s lack of carries inside the 5-yard line is alarming, especially since the team brought Sean Tucker back. They placed a right-of-first-refusal tender on him, worth $3.52 million, per Over the Cap. Tucker handled 55% of Tampa Bay’s rushes inside the 5-yard line, and he paced the backfield with seven rushing touchdowns.

Irving remained an effective pass-catching option, but he’ll no longer be the team’s best pass-catching running back since they signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency. Moreover, Gainwell’s contract was fairly substantial, a two-year deal worth $14 million, with $9.83 million in guaranteed salary.

The following table shows the 2025 receiving production for Irving and Gainwell:

In addition, Gainwell earned a substantially higher pass-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF) in 2025 than Irving.

Gainwell is Tampa Bay’s best receiving back, and Tucker was their preferred goal-line runner last season. Zac Robinson is the team’s new offensive coordinator, but the potential for Irving to get pinched in receiving and touchdown production is a nightmare for his fantasy scoring outlook. His lackluster production and the addition of Gainwell are burying the lede.

Irving had offseason shoulder surgery, and his timeline for returning to the field is unclear. Even without the health concerns, Irving would be an ill-advised pick as a low-end RB2. However, with the shoulder concerns, his ADP is egregious.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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