In fantasy football, every player has value depending on where they’re drafted. With that, I’m avoiding the three quarterbacks featured below based on their average draft position (ADP). I also have concerns about their overall upside.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
Patrick Mahomes is going off the board in drafts as the QB12 (100 overall) in PPR leagues. That’s a fine value overall; however, we should be concerned about his statistical upside.
The Chiefs didn’t add any new wide receiver weapons, and they may have Rashee Rice for the entire season. However, they also brought in Kenneth Walker III to help with the running game after they were abysmal in that department last season.
Rice and Walker are capable pass-catchers, but adding Walker and also drafting running back Emmett Johnson, along with Mahomes coming off a torn ACL, signal a more run-heavy approach.
We can’t entirely fade Mahomes, but be ready to pivot away from him and his lack of upside.
Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)
Last season, Jaxson Dart started 12 games (Weeks 4-10 and Weeks 13-18). In that stretch, with a cut-off at Week 17, Dart was the fantasy QB12. However, after he came back in Week 13, he was the QB24, averaging 15.7 points per game, which was good enough for QB20.
Dart’s superpower is his rushing upside. He ran for 487 yards on 86 attempts, with nine touchdowns. However, he dealt with numerous injuries.
I also wonder about the offense around Dart. The elephant in the room is Malik Nabers’ health heading into the season. Running back Cam Skattebo should also be back, which will assist the ground game.
Under head coach John Harbaugh, the team will improve, but I’m a bit wary of Dart given his performance down the stretch last season and his injury issues. I’m also waiting to see what’s going on with Nabers.
There’s also a reality where Dart may run a bit less to avoid injury, which could limit his upside more.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
When I say avoid Josh Allen, this is purely a fade at his ADP. He’s definitely the best quarterback to have for fantasy, but his 33rd overall ADP leaves so much value on the board around that spot. Players like Tee Higgins, Javonte Williams, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Devonta Smith are all within 10 picks of Allen’s ADP.
Allen was the fantasy QB1 last season with 374.6 points. However, there were eight quarterbacks who scored 300+ fantasy points, so focus on a skill-position player and take a quarterback later who offers upside, similar to Drake Maye last season.
One of my favorite candidates is Kyler Murray at his QB18 ADP. He offers rushing upside and also has great weapons, headlined by Justin Jefferson. Does Murray possess Allen’s QB1 overall upside? No, but where you get him, coupled with the players you take over Allen, will be a net positive.
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