Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Projections: Quarterbacks (2026)

Expert consensus rankings and points-based season projections don’t always agree. ECR factors in things like injury risk, offensive continuity, and role security that a pure projection can undersell, while raw projected points can miss context that rankers weigh heavily. Comparing the two surfaces some interesting gaps. Below, we sorted our projections by total projected FPTS to get a “projection rank,” then compared it to each player’s actual ECR to find the biggest mismatches.

Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Projections

Let’s dive into our expert fantasy football consensus and projections to see where they differ.

How to Use This for Fantasy Football Drafts

Neither number is “right” on its own. ECR is the wisdom of the crowd, and the projection is a model’s best guess at a full season. When the two line up, you can draft with confidence. When they diverge sharply, it’s worth asking which factor (health, rushing floor, offensive scheme, projected game script) is driving the gap before you decide who to trust.

Projections Are Higher on Them Than Their Ranking Suggests

These quarterbacks are projected to score more fantasy points, relative to the field, than their current ECR reflects.

Jaxson Dart (NYG) — ECR: QB11 | Projection Rank: QB6 | Projected FPTS: 311.5

After selecting edge rusher Abdul Carter No. 3 overall in last year’s NFL Draft, the Giants traded back into the first round to grab Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss at No. 25. That move looks shrewd so far, as Dart acquitted himself extremely well in 12 starts last year despite having a skeleton crew of pass catchers following a season-ending injury to WR Malik Nabers. Dart completed 63.7% of his throws and averaged a respectable 6.7 yards per pass attempt, with 15 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dart was dynamic as a runner, racking up 487 rushing yards and nine TD runs. But Dart was also a reckless runner at times. He took some hard hits, including one against the Bears in Week 10 that resulted in a concussion. But it’s appealing to fantasy managers that Dart is such a willing and able runner. Two reasons for concern: (1) Nabers has reportedly been slow to recover from his knee injury; and (2) new Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy isn’t considered one of the NFL’s top offensive designers.

Brock Purdy (SF) — ECR: QB12 | Projection Rank: QB8 | Projected FPTS: 306.2

Brock Purdy‘s pass-catching corps will look a lot different in 2026. Free-agent addition Mike Evans is expected to be Purdy’s new No. 1 receiver, and the 49ers added WR Christian Kirk in free agency as well. Ricky Pearsall is still around, but Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne are gone. TE George Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles and might not be ready for the start of the season. A nagging turf toe injury limited Purdy to nine starts in 2025. He threw 20 TD passes despite missing all that time, but he also threw 10 interceptions. Purdy has ranked inside QB1 range in fantasy points per game in each of his three full seasons as a starter. Consider him a low-end QB1 in 2026 fantasy drafts.

Patrick Mahomes II (KC) — ECR: QB14 | Projection Rank: QB11 | Projected FPTS: 303.6

Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy appeal has diminished in recent years, and now the nine-year veteran is trying to recover from a major knee injury. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee late in the Chiefs’ Week 15 loss to the Chargers in mid-December. Reports say he has been rehabbing aggressively in hopes of starting the Chiefs’ Monday-night season opener against the Broncos on Sept. 14, which comes three days before his 31st birthday. Even if Mahomes is able to return for Week 1, his mobility could be compromised. Mahomes’ rushing production helped him get off to a fast fantasy start in 2025. Through eight weeks, he was QB1 in fantasy scoring at 25 points per game, fueled in part by 280 rushing yards and four TD runs. Mahomes finished the year tied for QB2 in fantasy points per game behind Josh Allen, after finishing QB11 in FPPG (six games minimum) in both 2023 and 2024. Kansas City didn’t make any significant additions to Mahomes’ pass-catching arsenal in the offseason, but the Chiefs added RB Kenneth Walker III, who could make Mahomes’ life easier by providing the Chiefs with a credible running threat.

Tyler Shough (NO) — ECR: QB20 | Projection Rank: QB17 | Projected FPTS: 285.9

Second-round draft pick Tyler Shough was a pleasant surprise for New Orleans as a rookie. He now enters the 2026 season as the Saints’ undisputed starter, with an opportunity to prove that he can be the team’s long-term answer at quarterback. Spencer Rattler started the Saints’ first eight games in 2025, but Shough took over as the starter in Week 9 and guided the team to a 5-4 record down the stretch. Shough was QB12 in fantasy points per game from Week 9 through the end of the regular season, and he produced at least 17.1 fantasy points in each of his last six starts. The 26-year-old Shough completed 67.6% of his throws, averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and had 10 TD passes and six interceptions. He also averaged 16.9 rushing yards per game and had three TD runs. It should be noted that only one of the teams Shough faced in his nine starts last season, the Rams, ranked inside the top 10 in DVOA against the pass. Still, it was an impressive half-season for Shough, and the Saints should have an easy schedule again in 2026. The Saints feathered Shough’s nest in this year’s NFL Draft by drafting WR Jordyn Tyson No. 8 overall. With Tyson and veteran Chris Olave, Shough has more than adequate pass-catching weaponry.

Their Ranking Is Higher Than the Raw Projection Supports

These quarterbacks are ranked better by experts than their projected point total alone would suggest — a sign the market is pricing in factors (a full 17-game season, a schedule not yet baked into projections, more rushing equity than a passing-only model captures) that go beyond a season-long point projection.

Caleb Williams (CHI) — ECR: QB7 | Projection Rank: QB13 | Projected FPTS: 299.8

After an uneven rookie season in which he finished QB16 in fantasy scoring, Caleb Williams took a big step forward in 2025 under new Bears head coach and playcaller Ben Johnson, finishing QB6 in fantasy scoring. Williams threw for a franchise-record 3,942 yards. He boosted his yardage per pass attempt from 6.3 as a rookie to 6.9. He bumped his TD rate from 3.6% to 4.9%, while slashing his sack rate from 10.8% to 4.1%. There’s still room for improvement. Williams completed only 58.1% of his throws last season, and he’s a notoriously slow starter who sometimes slumbers through the first half of games. But Williams is a remarkable athlete capable of extraordinary throws. He adds some fantasy value as a runner (388 rushing yards and three TD runs last year), though he prefers to use his mobility to buy additional time to throw. Williams has a bright future, and with Johnson as his mentor and a pass-catching corps that includes TE Colston Loveland and WRs Rome Odunze and Luther Burden, a high-end QB1 fantasy season is within reach.

Justin Herbert (LAC) — ECR: QB8 | Projection Rank: QB12 | Projected FPTS: 300.3

Over the first three years of his NFL career, Justin Herbert averaged 287.5 passing yards and 1.9 TD passes per game. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 233.3 passing yards and 1.5 TD passes per game. There hasn’t been a discernible difference in Herbert’s passing efficiency over those two periods. The downturn can be traced to (at various times) conservative play-calling, offensive line injuries, or a shortage of quality pass catchers. Those problems appear to have been resolved, and Herbert could have a banner season in tandem with new Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel (under whom Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yardage three years ago).

Cam Ward (TEN) — ECR: QB24 | Projection Rank: QB28 | Projected FPTS: 232.2

Cam Ward struggled mightily for most of his rookie year but showed improvement late in the season, creating optimism for 2026. The No. 1 pick in last year’s NFL Draft averaged just 10.2 fantasy points per game over his first 12 starts. He averaged a paltry 5.7 yards per pass attempt over that span, with seven TD passes and six interceptions. Ward didn’t have more than one TD pass in a game until Week 14, but then he had three consecutive games with two TD passes. Over Ward’s last four starts of 2026 (not including a brief cameo appearance in Week 18), he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. A shortage of pass-catching weaponry was a major problem for Ward as a rookie. The Titans addressed that issue by signing WR Wan’Dale Robinson in free agency and drafting Ohio State WR Carnell Tate No. 4 overall. Hopefully Ward will get better protection from his offensive line in 2026 after taking a league-high 55 sacks last year. Ward is probably only a consideration in superflex leagues or extremely deep redraft leagues for 2026, but the talented youngster could come on quickly.

Joe Burrow (CIN) — ECR: QB4 | Projection Rank: QB7 | Projected FPTS: 310.6

Every year, it seems as if good health is the only thing standing in between Joe Burrow and a high-end QB1 season. The 29-year-old Burrow is unquestionably one of the best pure passers in the game, if not the best. His career completion percentage of 68.5% currently stands as the best of all time. He’s averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt over his six NFL seasons, and he’s had at least 34 TD passes in all three seasons in which he played at least 16 games. Two seasons ago, Burrow completed 70.6% of his throws and led the NFL in completions (460), passing yardage (4,918), and TD passes (43). Burrow played only eight games in 2025, missing nine starts with a turf toe injury that required surgery. Burrow missed seven games with a wrist injury in 2023. And as a rookie in 2020, Burrow missed the last six games of the season after tearing his ACL, MCL, and PCL. The injury history is worrisome, and Burrow adds little fantasy value as a runner. But Burrow’s passing proficiency is indisputable, and he has one of the league’s best WR tandems at his disposal with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Jordan Love (GB) — ECR: QB18 | Projection Rank: QB21 | Projected FPTS: 267.5

It’s possible Jordan Love is simply a better real-life fantasy quarterback than fantasy quarterback. In 2025, Love ranked second among all quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback, third in defense-adjusted value over average, third in QBR and sixth in passer rating. And yet Love averaged only 16.1 fantasy points per game, which ranked QB19 among quarterbacks who made at least eight starts. Love finished QB5 in 2023, his first full season as an NFL starter, and hasn’t finished in QB1 range since. It’s partly because the Packers have been so run-heavy the last two seasons, finishing 31st in pass rate over expected in 2024, 22nd in 2025. Love hasn’t offered much rushing production either, with 282 rushing yards and one TD run over the last two seasons. Love might be a top-10 quarterback in reality, but it’s best to regard him as a high-end to midrange QB2 in 2026 fantasy drafts.

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