MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (7/11)

It’s a bit of a smaller slate on this final Saturday before the All-Star break. DraftKings’ Featured Slate is only six games that begin at 7:05 Eastern Time. FanDuel has its main slate with the same six games.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/11)

PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	$10,800	$10,900
Trey Yesavage	$8,800	$9,300
Matthew Liberatore	$6,200	$7,400

The clear top option on this slate for starting pitchers is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His strikeout rate is down a bit this season, but 25.1% is still in the top-25 of all pitchers. His matchup today is against the Diamondbacks. The first time he faced them this season, he struck out six batters over six innings and allowed two earned runs.
It’s been a bit erratic, but Trey Yesavage seems to be settling into the pitcher we expected coming into this season. His most recent start was seven strikeouts in six innings with a pair of earned runs. That was the third time in his last four starts that he had at least 20 points on DraftKings. Before that, he had one such start in his first eight games.
Matthew Liberatore is the cheapest option on the DraftKings slate. There is a reason for that, as most of his starts this season have been underwhelming. However, at the end of June, he had his best DFS start of the season on either site. Plus, his matchup today is against an Atlanta Braves offense that has the lowest wRC+ over the past 30 days.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (7/11)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF/1B (DK)	Shohei Ohtani	$6,700	$4,300
OF	Andy Pages	$5,400	$3,500
1B	Freddie Freeman	$6,100	$3,600
SS	Mookie Betts	$5,100	$3,100
3B	Max Muncy	$5,300	$3,100
OF	Kyle Tucker	$4,800	$3,200
OF	Teoscar Hernandez	$4,400	$3,100
C	Dalton Rushing	$4,100	$2,900
2B/OF/ SS/3B (FD)	Tommy Edman	$4,300	$3,000

The Dodgers’ matchup today is against Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has had two good starts since being recalled from the minor leagues. In those two games, he has eight strikeouts in 10.1 innings with only a single earned run. While those are good starts, it feels like fool’s gold. This is still a pitcher with a 10% strikeout-minus-walk rate on the season.
Given that Pfaadt has played his whole career with the Diamondbacks, it’s not surprising that many of the Dodgers have extensive histories against him. Let’s begin our lineup with Freddie Freeman. He’s been performing well recently with a 179 wRC+ over the past two weeks. He has gone 8-for-24 against Pfaadt in his career with four extra-base hits, including a home run.
Somebody with an even better history of success against Pfaadt is Mookie Betts. In his career against Pfaadt, Betts has gone 10-for-24 with three extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs. He has had five home runs and an .845 OPS over the past 30 days.
Tommy Edman is one of the cheaper options in the expensive Dodgers’ lineup. He’s dealt with injuries this season, but when he’s been healthy, he’s delivered. He has five extra-base hits in 60 at-bats for a .918 OPS.

Chicago Cubs Projected Lineup (7/11)

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
OF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	$6,600	$4,300
3B	Alex Bregman	$4,000	$2,900
OF	Seiya Suzuki	$4,300	$3,400
C	Carson Kelly	$3,400	$2,700
1B	Michael Busch	$4,000	$3,100
2B/SS (FD)	Nico Hoerner	$3,600	$2,900
OF	Ian Happ	$4,600	$3,400
SS	Dansby Swanson	$4,100	$3,300
OF	Kevin Alcantara	$2,100	$2,100

Nick Lodolo has seemingly started to turn his season around in his last three starts. He’s pitched 15 innings in those games with only a single earned run. While he has struck out 14 batters, that still comes with seven walks. His strikeouts have been down this season, while his walks have been up. Before this season, he had posted strikeout-minus-walk rates around 20%, but this season it’s only 8.6%.
The Cubs have been a difficult matchup for left-handed pitchers, like Lodolo, this season. No team has a higher wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season. One expensive option in the Cubs lineup who has been specifically great against left-handed pitching is Seiya Suzuki. His OPS against left-handed pitchers is .947. Against right-handed pitching, it falls to .774.
One player who has had his share of success against Lodolo is Ian Happ. It’s a bit odd because Happ has struggled this season against left-handed pitching with only a .546 OPS. Regardless, he’s gone 8-for-23 against Lodolo in his career, with six of those hits going for extra bases.
When you see a left-handed pitcher facing the Cubs, you have to consider Carson Kelly at his price point. He has mashed left-handed pitching this season to a .934 OPS. Nine of his 15 extra-base hits this season have come against left-handed pitching, even though he’s had 60 fewer at-bats against them.

Core Studs

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
2B	Ketel Marte	$5,100	$3,600
3B	Manny Machado	$4,400	$3,000
OF	Wyatt Langford	$4,000	$3,400

Typically, I try to avoid recommending individual hitters against recommended pitchers, but with the smaller slate, that becomes difficult. Ketel Marte has a history of success against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Marte has gone 5-for-18 against him in his career with a pair of extra-base hits, including a home run.
It was such a poor start for Manny Machado that his season stat line hasn’t caught up with his recent production. In the last 30 days, he has an OPS of .963 with eight home runs.
Just when everything was clicking for Wyatt Langford, a hamstring injury struck. He’s been again, though. Since the start of June, he has a .971 OPS with 12 extra-base hits in 21 games.

Value Plays/Punts

POS	PLAYER	DraftKings Salary	FanDuel Salary
3B	Eugenio Suarez	$3,800	$2,700
3B	Kazuma Okamoto	$3,600	$3,200
OF	Lane Thomas	$3,500	$2,600

There haven’t been a lot of hits for Eugenio Suarez all season, but he has made the most of the ones he has gotten. He’s had 47 hits all season, and 19 of them have gone for extra bases. His matchup today is against Javier Assad. His hard-hit rate against is 49%, which is the second-highest rate in the league among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.
Kazuma Okamoto‘s price continues to confound me. There are 24 players with at least 20 home runs this year. Okamoto is among them with 21 home runs himself. Yet, his price continues to be cheaper than most of the players in that range.
The Baltimore Orioles and Coby Mayo take on the Kansas City Royals today. The Royals are using left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron. Mayo has an OPS against left-handed pitchers of 1.067.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Jordan Walker (OF – STL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI – Higher

Jordan Walker has started and played in 10 games so far in July. Yesterday’s game against the Braves was delayed, so that one doesn’t count yet. In the 10 games that Walker has finished, he has gone over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in nine of the games. His matchup today is against Reynaldo Lopez.

Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA): 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Logan Gilbert has a matchup today against the Tampa Bay Rays. They are the toughest team to strike out in baseball, at only 19%. Yet, when Gilbert is on, he can rack up strikeouts against anyone. He has had at least seven strikeouts in his last four starts and has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts. He’s made five starts against the Rays in his career and has at least six strikeouts in each game.

Eury Perez (SP – MIA): 16.5 Outs – Lower

Eury Perez had a perfect game through seven innings last time and was still removed from the game to preserve his health. That tells you how efficient he has to be to get to 17 outs. He just showed that he can do it, but keep in mind that in his first two starts back off the injured list, he was under 16.5 outs in both games.