MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (7/26)

The last Sunday of July has one of the biggest featured MLB DFS slates that you’re ever likely to see. DraftKings’ main slate begins at 12:35 p.m. ET and includes a whopping 12 games. FanDuel’s main slate is the same.

• Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer
• Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
• Fantasy Baseball Lineup Assistant
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/26)

• Be careful not to use Jacob Misiorowski in this slate. While he still has the most upside of any pitcher on any day, the Brewers are being uber-cautious with his pitch count. It’ll make it difficult for him to deliver at his price point. Instead, we’ll look at Logan Gilbert as an expensive pitcher. He’s been on a roll recently. Over his last six starts, Gilbert has a 2.90 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate. For the season, his ERA is 3.38, and his strikeout-minus-walk rate is 22%.
• Ronel Blanco made his season debut earlier this week against the Miami Marlins. It was his first time pitching in a Major League game in over a calendar year as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. While the overall stat line wasn’t fantastic, there were some encouraging signs. He allowed four earned runs over 4.2 innings, but did strike out eight batters. His matchup is against a White Sox team that strikes out 23.7% of the time.
• Luinder Avila moved to the starting rotation on June 1st. His performance as a starter looks pretty average when you look at it on the surface. He has a 4.75 ERA, 4.69 FIP and 37 strikeouts in 41 innings. However, in one of his starts, he barely lasted more than an inning with eight earned runs allowed. If you remove that start, his ERA as a starter would be a much more impressive 3.07. His matchup today is against a Tigers team with a bottom-10 team wOBA in July.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (7/26)

• For the second day in a row, we’re going with the Brewers as a lineup to stack. It worked yesterday with 13 hits and eight runs scored. Today’s matchup is against left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland. If you drop the qualification to 90 innings, no other pitcher is particularly close to Freeland’s 7.28 ERA. His 5.64 expected ERA is certainly better, but that’s still the sixth-worst among all pitchers.
• You want to look at Jackson Chourio whenever you see a left-handed pitcher facing the Milwaukee Brewers. While he has a fine .768 OPS against right-handed pitchers, he crushes left-handers to the tune of a .890 OPS. He’s gone 6-for-11 against Freeland in his career, with five extra-base hits.
• Andrew Vaughn continues to crush baseballs. Since he was traded to the Brewers a bit over a year ago, he has an .869 OPS over 386 at-bats. The lower at-bats are partially due to an injury earlier this season and settling into a bit of a platoon role with the emergence of Jake Bauers. Vaughn’s platoon role is against left-handed pitchers (1.115 OPS).
• Rookie Cooper Pratt has found his home run swing in the Majors. After hitting six home runs in 58 games at Triple-A, Pratt now has two home runs in his first 31 MLB games. Both of those home runs have come in his past four games, including one yesterday.

Pittsburgh Pirates Projected Lineup (7/26)

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have a matchup against Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon. He has pitched 72 innings over his 14 starts and has a career-worst 5.38 ERA. That’s actually substantially better than his 6.40 FIP, which is also far and away the worst mark in his career. Taillon’s groundball rate is down to 35%, so we could see some home runs from the Pirates today.
• Bryan Reynolds has been in a bit of a slump coming out of the All-Star break — 4-for-32 with two doubles in the eight games. A matchup with Taillon should help turn that around. Reynolds has gone 8-for-25 against Taillon in his career with three extra-base hits, including a home run.
• Brandon Lowe has to be part of our Pirates stack considering his previous success against Taillon. Lowe has faced Taillon 17 times in his career. He has five hits in those at-bats, with four of them going for extra bases, including three home runs.
• It’s actually a bit surprising that Esmerlyn Valdez‘s price hasn’t risen more than it has given his performance. It’s especially still affordable on DraftKings. We’ll take advantage of it, though. At some point, there are going to be struggles for a player with a 37% strikeout rate, but we also can’t ignore the prodigious power. Valdez has seven home runs in July in only 72 at-bats.

Core Studs

• It’s been a season to forget for Jarren Duran, at least in the batting average department. He’s still only batting .192 as we start play on July 26th. That does come with respectable counting statistics, including 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Perhaps a matchup with Kevin Gausman will help boost his batting average. Duran has faced Gausman 25 times in his career, and has recorded eight hits, six of which have gone for extra bases.
• Wyatt Langford just needs to stay healthy to remain in the Core Studs section for a long time to come. Since June 5th, when he returned from his first injured list (IL) stint, he has a .979 OPS. Of course, there was another IL stint in there, so he has only played in 32 games in that span. Langford hit three home runs in the past week, but there is a chance he doesn’t play today. He fouled a ball off his foot last night, so make sure he is in the lineup before locking him in.
• Drake Baldwin has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break. In the nine games since the break, he has five home runs. Most of his power this season has come against right-handed pitching, with a .910 OPS against. His matchup today is righty Shane Baz.

Value Plays/Punts

• Considering that Nolan Arenado and Miles Mikolas were teammates for five seasons, it’s surprising to see such an impressive track record from Arenado. He’s faced Mikolas 12 times in his career and has six hits, including three home runs.
• Isaac Paredes is only an option in MLB DFS contests against right-handed pitchers. The good news is that today he faces righty Erick Fedde. All 14 of Paredes’ home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, with three of those home runs coming in July.
• It wasn’t all that long ago that Christian Encarnacion-Strand was a highly regarded power prospect in his own right. That was when he was still with the Reds, but he has resurfaced with the Orioles. It’s only been six games, but Encarnacion-Strand already has three home runs and a double.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Rafael Devers (1B, DH – SFG): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Rafael Devers faces righty Jose Soriano today. Devers is beginning to look a bit like a platoon bat with a .914 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .530 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Devers has cleared this number in the last three games with home runs in his last two games.

Ranger Suarez (SP – BOS): 4.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Underdog must think that Ranger Suarez will have his innings limited as he returns from injury. This will be his first start in exactly three weeks, so it’s certainly possible.

However, the line still seems low. Suarez has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in his last seven starts. Even in his most recent start, which lasted only 2.2 innings, he struck out five.

Drake Baldwin (C, DH – ATL): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

The hot streak that Drake Baldwin is on was already referenced above. Considering that he has a matchup against a right-handed pitcher, he should be able to go over this number for the third consecutive game.

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