Hope everyone had a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July! Now it’s time to get back to building your bankroll with today’s top MLB DFS picks and player props.
The DraftKings main slate today begins at 12:30 p.m ET and includes nine day games. We will look at FanDuel’s All Day slate for comparison.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/5)
- Unlike yesterday’s ace-heavy slate, today’s pitching pool leans much more toward offense. It was challenging to reduce the recommendations to only three. That’s not a problem today. Kyle Bradish has been erratic this season, to say the least. Nine of his 17 starts have resulted in at least 28 points on FanDuel, including a pair of 60s since mid-June. He’s also had five starts in which he didn’t reach 20 points, including nine points on FanDuel in his last start. His matchup today is against the Reds, who have a team OPS of .684 in the past 30 days.
- If you’re looking for a safer option, Casey Mize enters today’s slate with plenty of momentum. He pitched seven shutout innings, allowing a single hit and striking out 10 against the New York Yankees. His 2.63 is essentially in line with his 2.51 FIP. His strikeout rate of 26.9% is over four percentage points better than his previous career best.
- Here’s a fun stat. Griffin Jax is coming off his first quality start since August 16th of 2021. His most recent start went only 71 pitches, but the outing before that reached 88. Both of his most recent starts were against the Royals, but today he is facing the Astros. He has scored at least 27 points on FanDuel in his most recent five games.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Philadelphia Phillies Projected Lineup (7/5)
Hope everyone had a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July! Now it’s time to get back to building your bankroll with today’s top MLB DFS picks and player props.
The DraftKings main slate today begins at 12:30 p.m ET and includes nine day games. We will look at FanDuel’s All Day slate for comparison.
Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/5)
- Unlike yesterday’s ace-heavy slate, today’s pitching pool leans much more toward offense. It was challenging to reduce the recommendations to only three. That’s not a problem today. Kyle Bradish has been erratic this season, to say the least. Nine of his 17 starts have resulted in at least 28 points on FanDuel, including a pair of 60s since mid-June. He’s also had five starts in which he didn’t reach 20 points, including nine points on FanDuel in his last start. His matchup today is against the Reds, who have a team OPS of .684 in the past 30 days.
- If you’re looking for a safer option, Casey Mize enters today’s slate with plenty of momentum. He pitched seven shutout innings, allowing a single hit and striking out 10 against the New York Yankees. His 2.63 is essentially in line with his 2.51 FIP. His strikeout rate of 26.9% is over four percentage points better than his previous career best.
- Here’s a fun stat. Griffin Jax is coming off his first quality start since August 16th of 2021. His most recent start went only 71 pitches, but the outing before that reached 88. Both of his most recent starts were against the Royals, but today he is facing the Astros. He has scored at least 27 points on FanDuel in his most recent five games.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Philadelphia Phillies Projected Lineup (7/5)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| SS |
Trea Turner |
$5,200 |
$3,000 |
| OF |
Kyle Schwarber |
$6,200 |
$4,400 |
| 1B |
Bryce Harper |
$5,700 |
$4,100 |
| OF |
Brandon Marsh |
$4,800 |
$3,300 |
| 3B |
Alec Bohm |
$3,100 |
$2,700 |
| 2B/SS |
Bryson Stott |
$4,200 |
$2,900 |
| C |
J.T. Realmuto |
$3,700 |
$2,700 |
| OF |
Gabriel Rincones Jr. |
$2,600 |
$2,400 |
| OF |
Justin Crawford |
$3,100 |
$2,500 |
- Luinder Avila is scheduled to start today against the Philadelphia Phillies. His 5.40 ERA is a bit deceiving as his expected ERA and FIP are nearly a run lower at around 4.60. He’s had an issue with walking batters. If you drop the qualification to 40 innings, his 14.6% walk rate is tied for the worst rate in the league. All of those baserunners could lead to some big days for the Phillies’ offense.
- Bryce Harper is only playable against right-handed pitchers at this point in his career — 31 of his 38 extra-base hits have come against righties. He has a 1.042 OPS against right-handed pitchers, which falls to only .679 against left-handed pitchers. Harper has been hot recently, with five home runs in the last 14 games.
- It’s been a disappointing season for Trea Turner. He’s been better against right-handed pitchers all season, with a .696 OPS against right-handed pitchers as opposed to a .549 OPS against left-handed pitchers. He’s also starting to play better recently. He’s only had 25 extra-base hits on the season, but five have come in the last week, including three home runs.
- I still don’t think Alec Bohm‘s price tag has caught up to his production. He was bad in March and April with a single home run and a .426 OPS. Since then, he’s had 20 extra-base hits with an OPS of .781.
Chicago Cubs Projected Lineup (7/5)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| OF |
Pete Crow-Armstrong |
$6,700 |
$4,000 |
| 3B |
Alex Bregman |
$3,900 |
$2,800 |
| OF |
Seiya Suzuki |
$4,400 |
$3,400 |
| C |
Carson Kelly |
$3,000 |
$2,600 |
| 1B |
Michael Busch |
$4,200 |
$3,300 |
| 2B/SS |
Nico Hoerner |
$3,900 |
$2,900 |
| OF |
Ian Happ |
$4,500 |
$3,600 |
| SS |
Dansby Swanson |
$4,000 |
$3,300 |
| OF |
Kevin Alcantara |
$2,000 |
$2,100 |
- Left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore is scheduled to take on the Chicago Cubs today. The Cubs’ offense has been on fire with a league-leading wRC+ of 131 over the past 30 days. Liberatore has an ERA of 5.33, which is essentially in line with his expected ERA of 5.53 and his FIP of 5.11.
- How do you not start with Pete Crow-Armstrong? He already has 37 extra-base hits this season, including 19 home runs. Today’s game against the Cardinals is at Wrigley Field. He’s been fine in road games with a .799 OPS, but has excelled in home games with a 1.021 OPS.
- One of the rare players who has been performing similarly to Crow-Armstrong is teammate Dansby Swanson. In his last 14 days, he’s had a remarkable eight home runs and 26 RBI. To begin July, he had a 76-point game on FanDuel. That’s about as high a score as you’ll ever see.
- There aren’t many cheap options in the Cubs’ lineup. One of the cheapest is Carson Kelly, who has much more success against left-handed pitchers. Against lefties, he has a slash line of .338/.420/.549. That’s a .969 OPS.
Core Studs
- Miles Mikolas and Bryan Reynolds have an extensive history dating back to their time together in the National League Central. Mikolas has moved on to the National League East, but they’re going head-to-head again today. Reynolds is 15-for-44 against Mikolas with six extra-base hits.
- What a stretch we’re getting from Junior Caminero. He’s now hit 11 home runs in his last 11 games. That’s pushed his season OPS to .945. Peter Lambert is the starting pitcher for the team opposing him today.
- Two Kansas City Royals left-handed batters are $4,700 on DraftKings. If you’d prefer Jac Caglianone, that makes sense too. I recommend Carter Jensen, though. He’s coming off a June in which he had 14 extra-base hits, including five home runs.
Value Plays/Punts
- Lars Nootbaar has been impressive since returning from his injury. He already has eight extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs, in 24 games. While he doesn’t have the at-bats to qualify, his 94-mile-per-hour average (MPH) exit velocity and 56.7% hard-hit rate would be among the best in the league.
- Konnor Griffin‘s time as a value play is coming to an end. He has hits in six of the seven games since returning from injury. While only one of those hits was a home run, he has found a different way to provide DFS value with his three stolen bases since returning.
- Esmerlyn Valdez has seemingly settled into a role as the everyday cleanup hitter for the Pittsburgh Pirates. While there will certainly be strikeouts, given his 31.9% strikeout rate, that comes with prodigious power. He has a hard-hit rate of 53.7% and a barrel rate of 29.3%. Valdez has 12 extra-base hits, including six home runs, in his first 21 career games.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Nick Lodolo‘s strikeout rate is substantially lower than in previous seasons. The lowest strikeout rate in his first four seasons was 24.3% last year.
Whether it’s the blister issue or another factor, Lodolo is not generating strikeouts at nearly the same rate this season (18.2% strikeout rate). He’s had fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in five of his last six starts.
Juan Soto‘s 15.6% walk rate is a career low, and he’s drawn at least one walk in six of his last eight games. His matchup today is Martin Perez, who has a 9.6% walk rate.
Tyler Mahle last struck out at least five batters on May 20th. To be clear, he did miss a considerable amount of time in between with a hamstring injury.
Mahle has made two starts since returning from that injury — he didn’t reach five strikeouts in either. It’s hard to imagine that pitching at Coors Field is how he turns it around.
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