Touchdown rate is the most volatile input in quarterback fantasy scoring, and it drives a huge share of the position’s year-to-year noise. Our 2025 regression report adjusts every quarterback’s passing and rushing touchdown rates toward sustainable levels, recomputes his fantasy points, and produces an adjusted rank. The RANK DIFF column, the gap between where a quarterback actually finished and where he “should” have finished on normalized touchdown rates, is a map of who got lucky and who got robbed. That map points toward 2026 fantasy football draft value. But raw regression is not destiny, so we have paired each signal with scouting reports from our analysts, because a rushing floor or a bad offense can override the math. Here is a look at 2026 draft values and players to avoid based on TD regression.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: TD Regression Candidates
Negative Regression Candidates
The single largest negative-regression quarterback in the report, and the clearest sell on the board. Jackson’s 2025 leaned on a 6.95 percent passing touchdown rate that normalizes to 5.96 percent, dropping his adjusted finish three spots. The scouting concerns compound the math: from Weeks 9 through 18 he was the QB20 in points per game, ranking near the bottom of the league in accurate-throw and catchable-target metrics, and he posted a career-worst 26.8 rushing yards per game. He now works behind a reworked offensive line with a new playcaller and a thin receiving corps behind Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. The QB1 ceiling is real, but at a top-two quarterback price the market is baking that ceiling in as a near certainty when it is anything but. This is the fade of the summer.
Stafford won MVP on the back of a league-topping 7.71 percent passing touchdown rate, a figure no quarterback sustains, and it normalizes to 6.82 percent. He offers essentially nothing on the ground to cushion the fall, which is why the report dings him even though his offense and situation remain excellent. He can still be a QB1 in 2026, but the takeaway from both the math and the notes is identical: do not chase last year’s MVP season up the draft board.
Williams graded out as a mild negative-regression case, and the notes explain why the risk is real: his QB7 fantasy finish badly outran his passing, as he ranked near the bottom of the league in accuracy and catchable-target rate. His fantasy value is propped up by rushing, so if that production dips even slightly, his stock slides. He should still return QB1 numbers, but he is a hold-with-caution, not a buy.
Positive Regression Candidates
The biggest positive-regression quarterback in the report. Prescott’s 5.0 percent passing touchdown rate normalizes upward, lifting his adjusted finish three spots into the top five. The notes back it fully: he commands an offense that ranked fifth in points per game with a loaded skill group in CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson, and there is genuine “meat on the bone” in his touchdown production. He is a locked-in QB1 with top-five upside going at a discount.
A positive-regression case that the notes love as a late-round lottery ticket. Ward’s rough rookie year came in a barren offense, and Tennessee overhauled it, adding Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson and, crucially, quarterback whisperer Brian Daboll, whose track record with Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, and Jaxson Dart is exactly the profile you want betting on a second-year leap. Cheap, and trending up.
Suppressed in 2025 and pointed sharply upward. Over Weeks 12 through 18 as a rookie, Shough was the QB6 in points per game with a real rushing contribution, and the Saints added offensive firepower around him. A wonderful late-round quarterback who could return QB1 weeks at a last-pick price.
Nix rounds out the buys. His passing touchdown rate cratered from 5.1 to 4.1 percent in 2025, a dip that regresses back up, and he still runs a top-five-neutral-pass-rate offense that just added Jaylen Waddle. A bounce-back to top-seven range is well within range.
Don’t Buy The Regression
This is the section that separates a real board from a mechanical one. Several quarterbacks carry a regression signal that the scouting picture flatly contradicts, and in these cases the notes win.
Sam Darnold (QB – SEA) grades as a mild positive-regression buy, but it is a trap. Seattle finished 25th in neutral passing rate and dead last in passing rate when trailing, an offense built to not throw. He is a real-life success and a fantasy avoid regardless of what his touchdown rate does.
Jordan Love (QB – GB) shows as a mild negative-regression case, but his touchdown rate has been stable and above average for three straight seasons (5.5, 5.9, 5.2 percent). His QB2 finishes owe to a run-heavy scheme, not touchdown luck. If Green Bay’s pass rate climbs even to average, he is a QB1 buy, not a sell.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) and Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) both grade as negative-regression cases driven by high rushing touchdown rates, but both are heavy-volume runners whose rushing floor is the stickiest asset in fantasy. Hurts is a buy-the-dip candidate coming off his worst year, and Dart profiles as a strong QB1 at a discounted cost. The touchdown rate may normalize; the carries will not.
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