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Touchdown Regression Report

2021 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESPaTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKPaTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Josh Allen (BUF) 165.61%4.92%393.715.79%5.29%401.11 0
Justin Herbert (LAC) 165.65%4.76%367.325.59%6.42%372.12 0
Tom Brady (TB) 165.97%7.14%361.735.77%7.54%356.53 0
Patrick Mahomes II (KC) 165.70%3.57%348.045.49%3.44%342.34 0
Joe Burrow (CIN) 166.55%5.00%328.255.25%5.87%303.28-3
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 166.82%0.00%327.266.38%1.78%320.16 0
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 156.95%9.09%322.176.81%7.70%316.37 0
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 153.70%7.19%321.284.19%6.98%328.05 +3
Dak Prescott (DAL) 155.62%2.13%298.895.26%4.46%297.19 0
Kyler Murray (ARI) 134.97%5.62%293.4105.17%5.56%296.910 0
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 155.87%3.45%285.4115.19%3.72%270.611 0
Derek Carr (LV) 163.67%0.00%255.6123.94%2.14%267.412 0
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 163.95%12.73%255.1134.45%10.39%258.014-1
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 124.19%1.48%253.0144.22%2.52%261.913 +1
Carson Wentz (WAS) 165.23%1.75%252.9155.16%3.59%257.815 0
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) 154.04%1.69%231.8163.98%3.69%237.717-1
Mac Jones (NE) 164.22%0.00%226.1174.44%0.90%233.118-1
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 144.52%7.89%224.8184.57%6.08%221.521-3
Russell Wilson (DEN) 136.25%4.65%223.8194.97%4.35%202.623-4
Matt Ryan (IND) 163.57%2.44%223.1204.22%5.15%244.216 +4
Ben Roethlisberger 153.64%5.00%215.7214.28%5.35%231.619 +2
Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) 144.23%6.67%209.7224.45%6.86%213.922 0
Trevor Lawrence (JAC) 161.99%2.78%197.4232.89%3.93%224.120 +3
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 144.08%2.70%193.9244.05%2.50%193.124 0
Jared Goff (DET) 133.85%0.00%185.0253.87%2.76%188.425 0
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 124.12%6.98%178.8264.40%6.76%182.627-1
Daniel Jones (NYG) 112.77%3.23%173.5273.44%3.66%184.926 +1
Sam Darnold (CAR) 112.21%9.80%154.6283.13%8.21%164.728 0
Zach Wilson (NYJ) 122.35%13.33%153.0293.04%12.41%161.929 0
Davis Mills (HOU) 124.06%0.00%139.7303.52%0.70%131.931-1
Justin Fields (CHI) 122.59%2.78%136.8313.21%2.46%142.230 +1
Jameis Winston (NO) 78.70%3.23%120.4326.34%2.59%104.133-1
Taysom Hill (NO) 112.99%7.14%112.6333.17%5.69%107.532 +1
Cam Newton 73.17%10.64%91.4342.93%8.10%83.037-3
Tyrod Taylor (NYG) 63.33%15.79%86.7353.96%10.17%84.136-1
Trevor Siemian (CHI) 55.85%10.00%82.4366.01%5.58%81.039-3
Tyler Huntley (BAL) 61.60%4.26%77.8373.01%3.36%85.935 +2
Jacoby Brissett (CLE) 112.22%5.56%76.3383.25%7.16%87.334 +4
Andy Dalton (NO) 73.40%0.00%75.5393.59%5.62%82.738 +1
Mike White (NYJ) 43.79%0.00%52.0403.28%0.03%49.340 0
Mike Glennon 62.40%16.67%40.9413.04%10.28%42.941 0