Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 16 | 8.65% | 2.88% | 411.4 | 1 | 6.57% | 2.50% | 368.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 16 | 5.80% | 11.76% | 385.0 | 2 | 5.17% | 9.72% | 360.3 | 4 | -2 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 16 | 6.60% | 4.76% | 367.8 | 3 | 6.54% | 4.47% | 365.5 | 2 | +1 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 16 | 5.21% | 4.05% | 360.6 | 4 | 4.93% | 4.74% | 361.4 | 3 | +1 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 16 | 7.19% | 5.00% | 359.2 | 5 | 6.14% | 4.14% | 332.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 16 | 6.86% | 0.00% | 324.2 | 6 | 6.20% | 2.31% | 314.7 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 15 | 4.97% | 9.33% | 320.1 | 7 | 4.82% | 8.86% | 313.6 | 7 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | 16 | 6.41% | 1.49% | 312.3 | 8 | 5.99% | 2.01% | 305.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 16 | 5.11% | 4.35% | 294.7 | 9 | 4.57% | 4.27% | 281.9 | 11 | -2 |
| Patrick Mahomes II (KC) | 16 | 4.48% | 3.45% | 293.0 | 10 | 4.99% | 2.86% | 303.0 | 9 | +1 |
| Kyler Murray (ARI) | 16 | 3.88% | 6.41% | 280.4 | 11 | 4.16% | 4.20% | 276.0 | 12 | -1 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 15 | 4.39% | 7.58% | 278.9 | 12 | 4.87% | 6.95% | 285.2 | 10 | +2 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 16 | 4.55% | 2.90% | 260.4 | 13 | 4.27% | 2.89% | 254.7 | 14 | -1 |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 16 | 3.63% | 3.77% | 254.7 | 14 | 3.65% | 3.64% | 254.7 | 15 | -1 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 16 | 3.56% | 0.00% | 249.6 | 15 | 3.67% | 0.73% | 255.7 | 13 | +2 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 14 | 5.88% | 4.00% | 242.1 | 16 | 5.46% | 5.61% | 237.4 | 17 | -1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 16 | 4.79% | 0.00% | 241.6 | 17 | 4.86% | 0.34% | 243.7 | 16 | +1 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 16 | 3.76% | 0.00% | 226.4 | 18 | 3.88% | 1.48% | 233.7 | 18 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 16 | 3.86% | 0.00% | 222.6 | 19 | 4.25% | 1.34% | 233.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 14 | 3.97% | 0.00% | 192.3 | 20 | 3.73% | 1.57% | 190.0 | 21 | -1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 11 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 188.6 | 21 | 4.86% | 0.58% | 190.8 | 20 | +1 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 13 | 4.42% | 3.70% | 187.1 | 22 | 4.27% | 2.79% | 182.0 | 22 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson Sr. (IND) | 11 | 3.03% | 6.98% | 174.4 | 23 | 3.03% | 7.12% | 175.1 | 23 | 0 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 13 | 3.90% | 13.95% | 167.6 | 24 | 4.11% | 9.91% | 160.5 | 25 | -1 |
| Russell Wilson (NYG) | 10 | 4.76% | 4.65% | 166.3 | 25 | 4.47% | 5.46% | 164.5 | 24 | +1 |
| Derek Carr | 10 | 5.38% | 5.88% | 155.9 | 26 | 4.39% | 7.57% | 146.6 | 28 | -2 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | 10 | 4.21% | 11.54% | 152.2 | 27 | 4.39% | 9.09% | 150.4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston (NYG) | 12 | 4.39% | 4.00% | 143.1 | 28 | 4.15% | 4.01% | 140.3 | 29 | -1 |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | 10 | 2.35% | 2.99% | 142.3 | 29 | 3.05% | 4.25% | 156.9 | 26 | +3 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 8 | 3.85% | 7.69% | 124.5 | 30 | 3.52% | 7.70% | 120.8 | 31 | -1 |
| Will Levis (TEN) | 11 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 120.1 | 31 | 3.64% | 0.92% | 114.5 | 34 | -3 |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 10 | 3.11% | 8.06% | 120.1 | 32 | 3.48% | 7.82% | 121.6 | 30 | +2 |
| Cooper Rush (BAL) | 12 | 3.90% | 0.00% | 114.6 | 33 | 3.97% | 1.25% | 117.4 | 32 | +1 |
| Gardner Minshew II (KC) | 10 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 106.3 | 34 | 3.68% | 0.77% | 116.2 | 33 | +1 |
| Mason Rudolph (PIT) | 7 | 3.95% | 4.00% | 101.5 | 35 | 4.04% | 2.81% | 100.5 | 35 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco (CLE) | 7 | 4.84% | 0.00% | 91.5 | 36 | 4.69% | 0.84% | 90.4 | 37 | -1 |
| Mac Jones (SF) | 9 | 3.05% | 3.57% | 90.4 | 37 | 3.30% | 3.68% | 93.1 | 36 | +1 |
| Aidan O'Connell (LV) | 8 | 3.29% | 4.76% | 80.6 | 38 | 3.43% | 3.84% | 80.8 | 39 | -1 |
| Deshaun Watson (CLE) | 7 | 2.31% | 3.23% | 79.7 | 39 | 2.69% | 3.60% | 83.6 | 38 | +1 |
| Drew Lock (SEA) | 6 | 3.31% | 11.11% | 76.3 | 40 | 3.13% | 7.75% | 71.3 | 40 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton (CAR) | 6 | 4.38% | 0.00% | 65.0 | 41 | 4.53% | 0.27% | 66.1 | 41 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler (NO) | 6 | 1.75% | 0.00% | 57.6 | 42 | 2.23% | 0.12% | 62.1 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 2.26% | 7.69% | 53.0 | 43 | 3.23% | 5.16% | 54.2 | 44 | -1 |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI) | 8 | 1.24% | 0.00% | 46.2 | 44 | 2.90% | 2.11% | 58.8 | 43 | +1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) | 4 | 2.86% | 14.29% | 21.1 | 45 | 3.60% | 14.20% | 24.2 | 46 | -1 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson (PHI) | 6 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21.0 | 46 | 1.52% | 0.78% | 29.1 | 45 | +1 |
