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Touchdown Regression Report

2023 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESPaTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKPaTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Josh Allen (BUF)165.01%13.64%385.614.60%10.85%357.81 0
Jalen Hurts (PHI)164.28%9.55%370.223.80%8.27%347.82 0
Lamar Jackson (BAL)165.25%3.40%338.234.80%3.46%330.43 0
Dak Prescott (DAL)166.10%3.64%325.745.95%3.96%323.14 0
Jordan Love (GB)165.53%8.00%311.555.12%6.19%296.66-1
Brock Purdy (SF)166.98%5.13%306.665.76%4.37%283.17-1
Patrick Mahomes II (KC)164.52%0.00%294.274.78%2.45%311.35 +2
Jared Goff (DET)164.96%6.25%282.384.62%6.02%273.69-1
Baker Mayfield (TB)164.95%1.61%277.994.43%2.84%270.710-1
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)165.18%0.00%274.7105.09%2.16%277.08 +2
Sam Howell (SEA)163.43%10.42%269.1113.61%7.45%265.111 0
Russell Wilson (PIT)155.82%3.75%264.9125.60%4.09%262.713-1
C.J. Stroud (HOU)144.61%7.69%259.5134.32%7.05%252.115-2
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)153.72%5.71%258.3143.68%5.43%256.114 0
Matthew Stafford (LAR)154.61%0.00%254.1155.00%1.84%264.612 +3
Justin Herbert (LAC)134.39%5.77%240.2164.56%5.79%243.516 0
Justin Fields (PIT)124.32%3.23%230.6174.35%3.35%232.017 0
Derek Carr (NO)164.56%0.00%222.0184.39%1.05%220.318 0
Geno Smith (SEA)144.01%2.70%214.9194.08%3.10%217.219 0
Joshua Dobbs (SF)133.12%7.79%210.7203.36%5.13%202.521-1
Gardner Minshew II (LV)153.06%8.82%196.7213.49%7.74%202.820 +1
Desmond Ridder (ARI)143.09%9.43%171.5223.65%6.85%171.923-1
Bryce Young (CAR)152.09%0.00%162.2232.65%2.67%180.222 +1
Kirk Cousins (ATL)85.79%0.00%154.7245.60%4.52%156.125-1
Joe Burrow (CIN)104.11%0.00%153.2254.39%0.29%157.824 +1
Kyler Murray (ARI)73.73%6.82%133.6263.83%7.73%137.026 0
Jake Browning (CIN)84.94%11.11%131.4274.46%10.39%125.628-1
Zach Wilson (NYJ)122.17%0.00%126.9282.65%0.45%134.927 +1
Mac Jones (JAC)112.90%0.00%118.4293.03%0.09%120.431-2
Aidan O'Connell (LV)103.50%5.88%115.0303.88%7.68%122.130 0
Kenny Pickett (PHI)121.85%2.38%114.2312.53%2.56%123.429 +2
Joe Flacco (IND)56.37%0.00%108.8325.04%2.10%99.133-1
Will Levis (TEN)93.14%4.00%106.0333.09%4.33%106.132 +1
Tommy DeVito (NYG)94.49%2.78%96.0343.94%2.10%90.634 0
Deshaun Watson (CLE)64.09%3.85%90.8353.75%2.45%86.335 0
Bailey Zappe (NE)92.83%5.88%75.4362.31%3.24%68.339-3
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)81.74%5.88%73.6372.79%3.39%80.836 +1
Jimmy Garoppolo (LAR)64.14%0.00%73.1384.13%2.00%75.437 +1
Tyrod Taylor (NYJ)92.78%0.00%71.7392.86%0.33%73.038 +1
Taylor Heinicke (ATL)53.68%6.67%70.0403.26%3.77%65.141-1
Daniel Jones (NYG)61.25%2.50%63.0411.95%2.17%66.740 +1
Tyson Bagent (CHI)52.10%8.70%59.3423.07%7.69%63.442 0
Mitch Trubisky (BUF)53.74%12.50%53.7433.02%10.90%49.145-2
Nick Mullens (MIN)44.73%0.00%52.1444.47%1.19%51.344 0
Easton Stick (LAC)41.72%3.70%52.0452.14%5.31%57.543 +2
Trevor Siemian (NYJ)41.31%0.00%28.1462.58%0.04%35.946 0
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE)70.89%0.00%26.1472.32%0.86%33.247 0
P.J. Walker (CLE)60.90%0.00%25.0482.39%0.24%31.848 0