Ryan Kirksey | Tue, Aug 18th 2026, 7:24am EDT

4 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on Fantrax (2026)

With such a small number of players on any given fantasy football roster, making a pick that does not return value — at any point in the draft — can be dangerous and lead to a season spent out of the postseason. Finding the right players in a draft on any platform, including Fantrax, is essential to building a championship roster.

All drafts are different, and Fantrax has its own unique average draft position (ADP) and nuances when you enter a league on its platform. After participating in several mock drafts on that site, I have noticed a number of players being selected much too high relative to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on Fantrax

Let’s look at four players to avoid based on Fantrax ADP compared to consensus ADP for redraft leagues. Fantrax’s default is PPR scoring, so we will compare that format to the FantasyPros ADP.

Kyler Murray (QB – MIN) | ADP: 118 (QB18)

Fantrax has Kyler Murray going around 118th overall, while FantasyPros’ consensus ADP has him closer to 140th, meaning Fantrax drafters are willing to spend roughly two rounds more to acquire him.

That premium might have something to do with Murray officially being named the starter in Minnesota, but it’s quite the jump from consensus. Murray finished as the QB3 in fantasy points per game in 2020 and QB4 in 2021, and he has never averaged fewer than 18.1 fantasy points per game in a season in which he played at least six games. But he hasn’t shown that elite upside in several years.

Fantrax is certainly making you pay for Murray’s ceiling, but there is a lot of risk here. Murray played only five games last season before being replaced by Jacoby Brissett, throwing for 962 yards and six touchdowns while adding 173 rushing yards.

The move to Minnesota gives him an intriguing opportunity to partner with Justin Jefferson, but there are still enough questions about his health, effectiveness, and ability to regain his early-career form that taking him around 140th overall is far more appealing than spending a pick around 118 overall.

Around that spot, you can find Bo Nix and Jared Goff just a few picks earlier. Murray’s ADP on Fantrax is ahead of Baker Mayfield, Tyler Shough and Jordan Love. I’ll take all of them before Murray this.

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ARI) | ADP: 140 (RB44)

Tyler Allgeier is an interesting late-round pick in fantasy football this season. Right now, Fantrax has him around 140th overall, while FantasyPros’ current PPR consensus ADP puts him at 153rd, a difference of roughly 13 picks.

That is a substantial premium for a running back who finished 2025 as a backup running back with 514 rushing yards, 96 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 143 carries. The touchdown production is encouraging, but his 3.6 yards per carry and only 16 targets demonstrate just how limited his role was on a team with another dominant running back (Bijan Robinson).

Allgeier has proven he can be a productive NFL backup, but his fantasy ceiling depends on circumstances rather than a large workload. And his circumstances have changed dramatically since he signed with the Cardinals.

With Allgeier now in Arizona, there is some potential for his goal-line role to grow, but prized rookie Jeremiyah Love played almost all the snaps with the starters in his first preseason game.

At 153rd overall, Allgeier’s FantasyPros price allows you to bet on that upside without paying a FLEX spot price. Fantrax drafters are effectively assuming that increased workload and a goal-line role are confirmed. They aren’t yet.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) | ADP: 66 (WR31)

Brian Thomas Jr. might be one of the most debated fantasy football players this offseason. Based on his disappointing 2025, how do we know what his right ADP should be?

Fantrax has Thomas going around 66th overall, while FantasyPros’ PPR consensus ADP has him at around pick 73-74, depending on the site. This isn’t nearly as dramatic a gap as the other players on this list, but it is still worth examining because Thomas is being drafted ahead of his consensus despite coming off an awful second season.

After exploding for 87 catches, 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie in 2024, Thomas fell to 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games in 2025. His 2025 production dropped to just 9.9 fantasy points per game after he averaged 16.7 as a rookie. Thomas still averaged 14.7 yards per reception in 2025, matching his rookie mark, and he produced 11 receptions of at least 20 yards despite the dramatic decline in production.

The issue is opportunity cost. In the seventh round, you’re drafting him alongside receivers who have considerably less uncertainty surrounding their projected roles. How do we know Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers won’t be the better receiver on this team?

Thomas absolutely has the talent to rebound, and Fantrax projects him for 61 receptions, 771 yards and four touchdowns in 2026, but that projection looks much more attractive at the consensus price than when Fantrax makes him an earlier selection. Give me Parker Washington two picks later on Fantrax.

Oronde Gadsden II (TE – LAC) | ADP: 148 (TE16)

After some truly astonishing performances as a rookie, the shine is starting to wear off on Oronde Gadsden II. Fantrax has Gadsden at approximately 148th overall, while FantasyPros’ current consensus ADP is around 174th. Essentially, on other sites, Gadsden is not drafted, but he is a borderline starter in Fantrax leagues, especially with uncertain news for Tucker Kraft and George Kittle.

Gadsden’s rookie production gives you a legitimate reason to consider him at either price, but the team circumstances tell the real story. He caught 49 passes for 664 yards and three touchdowns in 15 games, averaging 13.6 yards per reception. He also did it on only 69 targets, making his 664 yards particularly impressive for a tight end. That was good enough to finish TE20 in fantasy points per game (8.8 in PPR formats), but he was essentially useless at the end of the season.

There are other reasons to prefer the later FantasyPros draft slot. Gadsden’s situation is changing after the Chargers brought in Mike McDaniel, whose offense could create more opportunities for athletic tight ends, but they also brought in David Njoku and Charlie Kolar to play the position.

Gadsden’s rookie season gives him a very appealing ceiling, but because he isn’t yet a proven high-volume tight end, the better approach is to wait and see rather than get tantalized by the potential. When all the Los Angeles Chargers starters rested in their first preseason game, Gadsden suited up and played. That might be a harbinger that Gadsden is slotted for a backup role.

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