The best fantasy football value at quarterback often hides in plain sight: A proven producer coming off a down year, whose price has quietly dropped while his path to a rebound stayed intact. Our 2025 regression report helps surface these names by flagging quarterbacks whose production was suppressed by low touchdown rates or lost games, and the scouting notes fill in whether the dip was situational and fixable. These are the post-hype buy-lows for 2026, the quarterbacks the market cooled on who are positioned to reward the managers still paying attention.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Quarterback Values to Target
Here are a few fantasy football draft values at quarterback to target.
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
The headliner, and the largest positive-regression quarterback in the report. Prescott’s 2025 touchdown rate sat at just 5.0 percent, leaving obvious room to climb, and his adjusted finish jumps three spots into the top five. The situation could hardly be better set up for a rebound: Dallas ranked fifth in points per game, he directed a top-13 neutral passing rate at a top-ten pace, and his skill group of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams is fully intact. There is real “meat on the bone” here, as the notes put it. He is a locked-in QB1 with top-five upside going at a price that treats him like neither.
Patrick Mahomes II (QB – KC)
The nuanced buy, and worth being precise about. The regression report grades Mahomes as a positive-regression case, and the reason is partly volume, as his 2025 ended in Week 15 with a torn ACL while he sat as the QB2 in points per game. The floor is enormous and the price has cooled. But calibrate the ceiling honestly: Our analysts flag that his passing efficiency was uninspiring in 2025, and coming off the ACL he is likely to work from the pocket more, especially early, which trims the rushing that briefly spiked his value. Read Mahomes as a strong-volume QB1 buy who could settle back into the low-end QB1 range he lived in during 2023 and 2024, not as a lock to return to his MVP peak. At his softened cost, that is still a bargain.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
A classic post-hype target. Mayfield cratered from a QB4 breakout in 2024 to the QB17 in 2025, but the collapse came with a clear, fixable cause: A battered throwing arm, a sprained knee, a bicep strain, and a shredded receiver room. Health is the whole story. Assuming a cleaner 2026, he still has a deep cupboard of pass-catchers and a rushing contribution that has topped 378 yards in each of the last two seasons to prop up his floor. He profiles as a top-12 quarterback you can draft as a mid-range QB2, which is exactly the shape of a buy-low.
Bo Nix (QB – DEN)
Nix regressed as a passer in 2025, his touchdown rate falling from 5.1 to 4.1 percent and his rushing dipping, yet he still finished QB11. That is a soft floor to build on, and the report flags the touchdown rate to climb back. He remains attached to a top-five neutral-pass-rate offense that just added Jaylen Waddle, and another step forward puts him in the top-seven conversation. Buy the passer dip on a quarterback whose environment is trending up.
Cam Ward (QB – TEN)
The cheapest swing on the list and a positive-regression case. Ward’s rough rookie year came airdropped into a barren offense, and Tennessee rebuilt it, overhauling the receiver room with Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson and importing quarterback whisperer Brian Daboll alongside new head coach Robert Saleh. Daboll’s history developing Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, and Jaxson Dart is the exact profile you want betting on a second-year leap. A late-round lottery ticket with a real path to relevance.
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