Dan Harris photo

Dan Harris

FantasyPros
Featured Pros: Way Too Early NFL Overvalued Players
Thu, Feb 15
Featured Pros: Way Too Early NFL Overvalued Players
What QB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
Andrew Luck is the easy answer but Carson Wentz sticks out for me at fourth overall. Wentz recently revealed that he also tore his LCL in addition to his ACL. That makes it seem iffy at best that Wentz will be ready to return by Week 1, especially with Nick Foles still under contract and the Eagles feeling little pressure after their Super Bowl win. Even if he does make it back in time for the start of the season, he'd be unlikely to run much, especially in the early going, and would likely take some time to look like his old self. At this point, he's way too much of a risk to be valued that high.

What RB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
Frankly, no one stands out as drastically overvalued at the running back position, but I don't feel comfortable with Dalvin Cook at number nine. Yes, he's an incredible talent and he should theoretically be recovered from his ACL tear, but there are always risks in recovery. And although Jerick McKinnon will almost certainly be gone, Latavius Murray has proven himself as a more-than-capable goal-line back, and new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo comes over from the Eagles where the offensive philosophy revolved around three running backs. Cook may be fully recovered, he may get goal-line work, and he may get the lion's share of the touches, but there is enough risk there for him to be considered lower than the ninth running back off the board.

What WR is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
I just can't see drafting Jordy Nelson as if he's a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver. There are rumors that he may be cut this offseason, but even if he stays in Green Bay, Davante Adams is clearly the top dog now. Nelson's speed has declined dramatically, and although he could move to the slot role where his lack of speed wouldn't be as important, it seems unlikely that he'd earn that draft price. He should be considered a middling WR3 at this point, at best.

Alex Smith (QB - WAS) - Alex Smith traded to the Washington Redkins
Thu, Feb 1
I actually expect the fantasy impact of the trade to be minimal. Smith showed how well he can run an offense when the reins are taken off, and Jay Gruden's system isn't all that dissimilar from what the Chiefs ran this year. For the Redskins pass-catchers, the trade doesn't move the needle much. As for Kansas City, there's perhaps a slight bump to Tyreek Hill, as Patrick Mahomes' strong arm and aggressiveness should lead to bigger plays. But overall, fantasy values don't change much.
Rob Gronkowski (TE - NE) - Rob Gronkowski to play in Super Bowl LII?
Thu, Feb 1
Unlike with most injuries, once a player is cleared to play after a concussion, there should be no lingering effects. If Gronkowski does play, as expected, then he should be a full-go with no limitations. The Eagles aren't great at stopping opposing tight ends, so I'd expect a monster game from Gronkowski in the Super Bowl.
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Thu, Feb 1
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-4.5)
I just can't bet against the Patriots at this point. Yes, they always play close Super Bowls, but there's no reason to think that the Eagles will build up a significant lead like the Seahawks and the Falcons did in the Patriots' last two Super Bowls. Once they fall behind, I'd be hard-pressed to see Nick Foles leading a comeback effort for the Eagles, and I think the Patriots should win the game by a touchdown or so.

Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Under

Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 44

Against the Spread: Conference Round Picks
Thu, Jan 18
Against the Spread: Conference Round Picks
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)

Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Kudos to the Eagles for finding a way to win last week's game against the Falcons, but this weekend should be a different story. Absent some bad luck, the Vikings could have won handily against the Saints, as their combination of decent offense and incredibly strong defense is the perfect recipe for success in the playoffs. It's hard to see the Eagles scoring many points in this one and, though the game should be relatively close, I'd expect the Vikings to be playing from ahead most of the game, and to win by more than three points.

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Thu, Jan 11
Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-13.5)

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Obviously, there's some precedent in favor of the Jaguars here, as they demolished the Steelers in the teams' first meeting back in Week 5, which came at Heinz Field. But the Steelers offense is an entirely different animal at this point in the season, and Blake Bortles has regressed to being . . . Blake Bortles. Though still outstanding, the vaunted Jaguars defense has shown cracks against decent offenses lately (the 49ers, the Seahawks, even the Cardinals), and I'd expect the Steelers to exact revenge for their earlier defeat. I think the Steelers will get out to an early lead and that Bortles' poor play will only help pad that lead.

Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4.5)

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Thu, Jan 4
Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Arrowhead Stadium should be an incredible home-field advantage as always this weekend, and I think it will show up in the final score. The Titans are solid against the run but have struggled to contain the pass all season, and that has somehow become Kansas City's best weapon this year. The Chiefs look to have rekindled their offensive rhythm from early in the season and the Titans are not built for huge comebacks. I'd expect the Chiefs to get out to a big lead early and then easily keep their distance.

Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
The Rams haven't been great at home, but it's difficult to bet against their incredible offense at this point. The Falcons defense has played well of late, but they aren't quite elite, and Atlanta simply does not have the offense to keep up. Likely playing from behind, I'd expect Atlanta to be unable to rely on their running game, and have difficulty putting up significant points as they quickly have to become one-dimensional.

Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
It's hard to imagine that this game will be close. LeSean McCoy won't be nearly at full strength even if he plays, and the Bills' pass protection can't stand up to the Jaguars' edge rushers. Blake Bortles probably won't need to do all that much, and Jacksonville should be able to rely on their defense and run game, and cruise to an easy victory.

Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
The Saints beat the Panthers by more than six points in both meetings this year, and there's little reason to expect this one to come out differently. Cam Newton has played poorly in recent weeks, and the Saints and Cameron Jordan should be able to devote extra resources to contain Newton's rushing ability. The Panthers excel at stopping the run but in the irresistible force of the Saints' running game versus the immovable object of the Panthers rush defense, I'll go with the Saints. They should cover the six-point spread.

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)

Early Top 10 Draft Rankings
Tue, Jan 2
Early Top 10 Draft Rankings
Please list your early top 10 players for 2018 (STD scoring).
Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr., Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara.

Tell us why the player you ranked at #1 is the best fantasy option in 2018.
Truly, there's very little difference for me among the top three picks, as I'd expect Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott to all have fantastic seasons. But if I'm drafting right now in a re-draft league, Bell would be my top choice. All indications are that he'll be playing for the Steelers next year, at least under the franchise tag, and unless Ben Roethlisberger retires, there's little reason to expect a downturn in production. He'll be just 26 years old next season, and basically set career-highs across the board in every major category. He's the perfect combination of safety and upside, and makes the perfect No. 1 pick.

Tell us who your top sleeper candidate is for drafts next for season.
I'm not sure if he'll be a sleeper come draft day, but Corey Davis is certainly a guy I expect to end up with on plenty of my teams. Be it injury or the stagnant state of the Titans' passing game, Davis just never got going this year. Although he wasn't blameless, if you watched enough Titans games, you understood why his strength and explosiveness made him a top pick in the NFL draft last year. Eric Decker probably won't return to Tennessee, and I'd expect that with a full offseason of work, Davis will settle in to becoming an incredibly reliable fantasy option, with the possibility to become a superstar in 2018. If is poor numbers depress his draft stock in any way, he'll be one of the great bargains of 2018 drafts.

Most Accurate Experts: Championship Start/Sit Advice
Fri, Dec 22
Most Accurate Experts: Championship Start/Sit Advice
Every year, a surprise stud steps up to help lead fantasy owners to a title. What under-the-radar player fits this bill and should be started as a result?
There are plenty of decent receivers (Mike Wallace and Dede Westbrook) and quarterbacks (Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles) who haven't been close to every-week starters but who have gotten a lot buzz this week, and deservedly so. But if you're in a deep league and need a true under-the-radar play, Kenny Golladay fits the bill for me. He's been seeing a steady four targets per game or so since his return, and with TJ Jones now on IR, that number should go up this weekend. The Bengals defense is both decimated by injury and mentally checked out, and it looks to me from afar like this has the potential to be a huge game for the young receiver.

Name one dud for Week 16 and tell us why you think this is one player owners should strongly consider benching.
Marshawn Lynch is someone who has been extremely solid for fantasy owners for the last four weeks, and it really looks like it was Oakland's plan to keep him fresh for the end of the season and then unleash him. But I would be very nervous about starting him on Monday night in Philadelphia. The Eagles are incredibly tough against opposing running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, and they've allowed just six rushing touchdowns to running backs all season. At home in a nationally-televised game with a (likely) chance to clinch the No. 1 seed, I'd expect the Eagles to be fired up, and for Beast Mode to struggle to find room to run.

Give us one struggling player that owners should resist the temptation to sit because a payoff is coming this week.
Fantasy owners seem very concerned about Dak Prescott after he laid an egg last weekend against a very beatable Raiders team. But I'm fairly confident in a big game here against a Seattle team that looks to have finally succumbed to the litany of injuries that have ravaged its defense. Ezekiel Elliott's return will surely open up the passing game, and things appear to be trending in the right direction for Tyron Smith. At worst, we know that the Seattle defense is vulnerable to running quarterbacks, so I wouldn't shy away from Prescott this weekend.

There are a few receivers with tough matchups this week. Between Marquise Goodwin (vs. JAC), T.Y. Hilton (at BAL), Robby Anderson (vs. LAC), Randall Cobb (vs. MIN) and Jordy Nelson (vs. MIN), who do you trust the most and what should owners expect?
Goodwin is the guy I'd trust the most of those options, and although I'd start him as a fairly strong WR3, I'm admittedly nervous about him. Tales will be told about the strength of this Jaguars secondary, but it's worth noting that they've allowed a touchdown to an opposing wide receiver in four straight games and have allowed six to the position over that span. Touchdowns aren't really Goodwin's game, but it's difficult to doubt a guy with 25 targets and 220 yards receiving over his last two games. At worst, you know that Goodwin should have at least a handful of receptions given his target share and, at best, he can break through for one of the big plays he's famous for and provide a huge day for fantasy owners.

Matt Bryant (K - ATL)
Wed, Dec 20
Player Note on Matt Bryant (K - ATL)
Bryant had been a pretty reliable source of double-digit fantasy points up until Monday night against the Bucs, where a blocked field goal kept him to just eight fantasy points. But he's a lock to see multiple attempts each week, and scored 10 fantasy points two weeks ago against the Saints, this week's opponent. Kicking indoors, he should once again be a fine option on Sunday.
Matt Bryant (K - ATL)
Wed, Dec 20
Player Note on Matt Bryant (K - ATL)
Bryant had been a pretty reliable source of double-digit fantasy points up until Monday night against the Bucs, where a blocked field goal kept him to just eight fantasy points. But he's a lock to see multiple attempts each week, and scored 10 fantasy points two weeks ago against the Saints, this week's opponent. Kicking indoors, he should once again be a fine option on Sunday.
Matt Prater (K - DET)
Wed, Dec 20
Player Note on Matt Prater (K - DET)
Prater had multiple field goals for the first time in three games on Sunday against the Bears, it couldn't have come at a better time. He'll now draw a Bengals team that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing kickers. The Lions should be able to move the ball well, which means that Prater should see a few chances for field goals and be a startable option on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford (QB - DET)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Matthew Stafford (QB - DET)
Stafford continued to play well on Saturday against the Bears, completing more than 75% of his passes for the third straight game. Though he rarely has huge fantasy days at this point, his reliability has made him a safe fantasy starter. That holds true this weekend against a Bengals defense that, though it has limited quarterbacks on the season, has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position over the last four weeks. Injuries and generally poor morale have led to the Cincinnati defense being an enticing matchup for opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford should be a fine option in Week 16.
Drew Brees (QB - NO)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Drew Brees (QB - NO)
Brees had a fine fantasy day against the Jets, but it could have been so much bigger, as he missed out on several touchdown passes because of penalties. He'll get the Falcons this week, against whom he threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns with an interception just two weeks ago. It's a fair bet that we'll see similar numbers from Brees again this week, which will keep him as a decent, but not necessarily elite, option.
Russell Wilson (QB - SEA)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Russell Wilson (QB - SEA)
Wilson was dreadful on Sunday against the Rams, throwing for just 142 yards and a touchdown, which came deep in garbage time. The Rams' ferocious pass rush coupled with Seattle's porous defensive line led to Wilson being pressured nearly half the time, and to him being unable to go through his progressions to find an open receiver. Things should be better this weekend against a Dallas team that has an adequate, but not elite, pass-rush, and Wilson should return to his usual ways of accounting for multiple touchdowns. He should once again be an elite option after last weekend's hiccup.
Cam Newton (QB - CAR)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Cam Newton (QB - CAR)
Newton stole the show last week in Aaron Rodgers' return to action, throwing four touchdown passes and rushing for at least 50 yards for the third straight game. He'll now get an injury-depleted and mediocre Bucs team which has struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks this season. But Tampa Bay did hold Newton to just one passing touchdown in his first meeting with the Bucs this season, so there's at least a shred of doubt. Still, given Newton's performance this week, it's hard to think of him anything other than a truly elite option.
Wil Lutz (K - NO)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Wil Lutz (K - NO)
Lutz hit his lone field goal attempt against the Jets, and converted all four of his extra point attempts. He'll now face the Falcons at home in a huge NFC South showdown. Lutz had just one field goal against the Falcons two weeks ago, and has just one in each of his past three games. But kicking for an excellent offense, Lutz is always in play as a startable option, including in Week 16.
Jake Elliott (K - PHI)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Jake Elliott (K - PHI)
Elliott made both of his field goal attempts and all four of his extra point attempts on Sunday against the Giants, and the Eagles offense looked no worse for the wear with Nick Foles under center. The Raiders allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing kickers, so Elliott will make an elite start in Week 16.
Greg Zuerlein (K - LAR)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Greg Zuerlein (K - LAR)
Zuerlein kicked two quick field goals against the Seahawks before settling for extra points the rest of the way, and he actually missed one of his five attempts. He's been absolutely money for fantasy owners and should be again this weekend against the Titans. Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing kickers, so it's hard to argue that Zuerlein is anything but the top option at his position in Week 16.
Green Bay Packers (DST - GB)
Tue, Dec 19
Player Note on Green Bay Packers (DST - GB)
The Packers D/ST did nothing against the Panthers, allowing 31 points to Cam Newton and company while notching just one sack. The Vikings give up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing D/STs, so leave the Packers on your bench or, better yet, on the waiver wire.
Alex Smith (QB - WAS) - Alex Smith traded to the Washington Redkins
Thu, Feb 1
I actually expect the fantasy impact of the trade to be minimal. Smith showed how well he can run an offense when the reins are taken off, and Jay Gruden's system isn't all that dissimilar from what the Chiefs ran this year. For the Redskins pass-catchers, the trade doesn't move the needle much. As for Kansas City, there's perhaps a slight bump to Tyreek Hill, as Patrick Mahomes' strong arm and aggressiveness should lead to bigger plays. But overall, fantasy values don't change much.
Rob Gronkowski (TE - NE) - Rob Gronkowski to play in Super Bowl LII?
Thu, Feb 1
Unlike with most injuries, once a player is cleared to play after a concussion, there should be no lingering effects. If Gronkowski does play, as expected, then he should be a full-go with no limitations. The Eagles aren't great at stopping opposing tight ends, so I'd expect a monster game from Gronkowski in the Super Bowl.

Go to the Fantasy Accuracy Reports to see how this expert stacks up.