Fantasy Football Player Notes

The 2022 season was another sad year of D.J. Moore suffering through the "Allen Robinson" experience as one of the league's most talented receivers that's being held back by mediocre quarterback play. Moore was the WR33 in fantasy as he dealt with a target quality rating and catchable target rate outside of 90th among receivers. Moore still managed to rank 27th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). We witnessed his floor last season as Moore was 12th in target share (27.7%), 17th in target per route run rate (26.8%), and fourth in deep targets. Justin Fields will be the best passer that Moore has worked with to this point. While the target volume concerns are justified for Moore in Chicago's offense, he has already displayed the ability to earn targets at a high rate. If the Bears' passing volume surprises with the receiving upgrades this offseason, Moore will happily pay off his ADP. Moore is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in 2023 that could easily finish as a top-15 receiver.

Justin Fields was electric as a runner in 2022. If he can significantly boost his passing numbers in 2023, look out. Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last season, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He ran for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 9, breaking the single-game rushing record for a quarterback -- then ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions the following week. But Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game and topped the 200-yard mark only twice in 2022. In his defense, Fields was saddled by a mediocre offensive line and arguably the worst WR group in the league. The Bears have already traded for WR D.J. Moore and figure to bolster their offensive line in the NFL Draft, giving Fields a chance to make the same sort of quantum leap that Jalen Hurts made in 2022.

Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery's flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team's lead back.

In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards.

With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D'Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.

Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there's an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there's a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields' own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs.

Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson's efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster.

The Bears significantly upgraded their wide receiver room with the addition of D.J. Moore, which means more target competition for Darnell Mooney in 2023. This means Mooney's 25.2% target share (20th) from last year will drop, but he can still carve out some spike weeks. Mooney ranked 18th in route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com) and 24th in deep receiving grade (per PFF) last year. With Justin Fields' cannon, Mooney should still enjoy some lucrative ceiling outings eating up secondaries with deep shots. Mooney is a strong late best ball pick or bench add in redraft.

One of the few credible pass catchers for the Chicago Bears last season, Cole Kmet led the team in targets (69), catches (50), receiving yards (544) and TD catches (7). Kmet got off to a s slow start in 2022, catching five passes for 56 yards over his first four games, but still finished TE8 in PPR fantasy scoring. If Bears QB Justin Fields shows improvement as a passer in 2023, Kmet could take another step up in his age-24 season, though the Bears' addition of WR D.J. Moore casts a shadow over Kmet's target outlook.

D'Onta Foreman inked a one-year deal worth $3 million with the Chicago Bears to replace David Montgomery in the Bears backfield alongside Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer and 2023 4th-round draft pick Roschon Johnson. Per Aaron Wilson, Foreman also had interest from the Bills, Panthers, and Giants but chose to go with the Bears.

The interest doesn't come as a surprise after Foreman's breakout play in 2022. From Week 7 on, Foreman was the RB21 in fantasy scoring and RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (852) over that span. But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for more than 110 yards in half of his last 10 games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of the others. His weekly half-point PPR fantasy finishes over those last 10 games were RB13, RB5, RB42, RB9, RB48, RB27, RB27, RB70, RB3, and RB53. Foreman was also a zero in the passing game, with just five receptions as the team's starter.

Even so, Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Khalil Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another RB usage split between a trio of capable RBs similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.

While consensus is ready to toss in the bag on Chase Claypool, I'm not. So quickly, everyone forgets that Claypool is an uber-athlete. His 90th percentile or higher speed and burst scores can create big plays at the drop of a hat. His rookie season marks of a 25.2% target per route run rate (15th-best) and 0.5 fantasy points per route run (14th-best) were the early signs of big time talent. Has his value dropped further after a down 2022 season? Yep. That's exactly why his ADP has dipped to the basement where it resides. Claypool showed promise of fulfilling his rookie season promise in three games with the Bears, in which he played at least 63% of the snaps. In that small three-game sample, he saw a 22.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 28% target per route run rate. Claypool is one of the best WR5 upside darts to toss this year.

Rookie running back Roschon Johnson posted an absurd 49% missed tackle rate in 2022, while also finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt among the 2023 draft class. Simply put, he would be talked about much more had he not been seated on the depth chart behind college football's best running back: Bijan Robinson.

He only started five games in 47 total games played at Texas.

But Johnson possesses bell-cow size at 6 feet and 219 pounds with tenacity to boot. He jumped 122 inches in the broad jump (78th percentile) at the NFL Scouting Combine

Johnson was selected by the Chicago Bears in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will compete with veterans D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert for snaps. Johnson will find earning playing time will be much easier to do competing with the likes of non-Bijan Robinson running backs.

Don't be surprised if RJ beats out Foreman by the time training camp concludes. His trusted work on special teams and pass protection should get him on the field sooner rather than later.