Fantasy Football Player Notes

After producing a career-high 1,364 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his first season in Chicago in 2023, D.J. Moore slipped to 966 yards and six touchdowns in 2024. Strangely, Moore established a new single-season high with 98 catches last year, but he averaged a career-low 9.9 yards per catch. Moore didn't exactly click with rookie QB Caleb Williams. Perhaps new Bears head coach Ben Johnson can help promote better chemistry between Williams and Moore, but another concern is that the Bears now have an abundance of pass catchers, with rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland joining Moore, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet.

D'Andre Swift had 1,345 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in his first season with the Bears, and things are now looking up for the Chicago offense. New head coach Ben Johnson is taking over as the playcaller, and Johnson worked with Swift in Detroit. The Bears dramatically improved the interior of their offensive line in free agency. And Chicago didn't make any major additions at running back in the offseason. But Swift ranked dead last in rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.69) among all RBs with at least 90 carries in 2024, so he's not exactly foolproof. Still, he seems like a reasonably good value at a high-end RB3 price

Rome Odunze didn't come close to producing as many had hoped during his rookie season. He finished as the WR56 in fantasy points per game despite sitting as the WR37 in expected fantasy points per game. Yes, Caleb Williams and target competition were massive problems for Odunze last year. Both of those factors remain prevalent when projecting how his 2025 season could unfold. Chicago jettisoned Keenan Allen but arguably added more talent in the process with the additions of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. Caleb Williams, despite all of the Ben Johnson hope and hype, still has plenty of question marks swirling around him. Last year, among 85 qualifying wide receivers, Odunze ranked 84th in catchable target rate. Woof! His overall numbers didn't look much better among the same sample of pass catchers, as he was 46th in target share, 50th in receiving yards per game, and 65th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those numbers don't look any better, even if you attempt to account for Williams' inaccuracy. Last year, Odunze also ranked 78th in separation and 54th in route win rate. If we filter only for catchable targets and exclude screens, Odunze ranked 61st in yards per route run and first downs per route run. It's tough to draft Odunze aggressively this season. If he falls in a draft (unlikely), I'll scoop him up, but he's not a player I'm prioritizing this season. He's a worrisome WR3/4.

Let's call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn't exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. I do believe Williams will take a step forward, but the real question is how much. Williams is best viewed as a dice roll QB2.

Loveland surprised some in the NFL Draft as the first tight end off the board. I'm not shocked by it, but I did think Warren would hear his name called first. Loveland's top ten first-round capital is notable. Ben Johnson seemingly got his Sam LaPorta. I don't think Loveland is on the same talent plane as LaPorta, and I don't mean that as shade, but their skill sets are different. Loveland has stellar per-route efficiency and the route running chops to match, but he isn't the same mauler after the catch, with only eight missed tackles forced in his collegiate career (per PFF). I worry a tiny bit about Loveland's weekly route share with Cole Kmet, who is still on this roster. Loveland should be the Week 1 starter, but don't be shocked if Kmet can be enough of a thorn in his side (ala Dawson Knox) to hurt his ceiling and floor in 2025. I also haven't even mentioned a crowded target hierarchy for this season with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Luther Burden on the roster and Caleb Williams' worrisome 2024 play. Right now, Loveland is a bet on talent, and that is driving him up the target hierarchy. Across his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked fifth in yards per route run in both seasons and third and tenth in receiving grade. Loveland is a TE2 that could finish as a TE1 if everything breaks right in 2025.

The manufactured touch king of Missouri heads to the Chicago Bears via the second round of the NFL Draft. The Ben Johnson faith and steam will lead plenty of Fantasy managers to draft Burden in 2025 despite the muddly path to significant targets in his rookie season. Chicago did this last year with Rome Odunze as they tossed him into a crowded target tree, and it didn't work out. Burden faces a similar hurdle with Odunze, D.J. Moore, and possibly Colston Loveland ahead of him in the hierarchy. I also didn't even mention Cole Kmet or D'Andre Swift. Burden enjoyed a ton of schemed and easy looks in college as he wasn't asked to just line up every down and route guys up. It's tough to see Burden finding his way to high-end fantasy relevance in 2025 if everyone stays healthy. Burden's a decent middle/late-round dart throw if injuries strike this depth chart because the path to a strong workload could open up quickly. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Burden ranked 58th and seventh in yards per route run, 79th and 13th in yards after the catch per reception, and first and 15th in missed tackles forced among wideouts (per PFF).

There's no way around it: The Bears' selection of Michigan TE Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick in this year's draft doesn't bode well for Cole Kmet's 2025 fantasy outlook. Kmet seemed to have a bright future after producing 73-719-6 in 2023 and finishing that season TE7 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. But Kmet averaged only 3.2 targets per game last season, with WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze combining for a 68.7% target share. Moore and Odunze are still around, and the Bears not only drafted Loveland in the first round, but WR Luther Burden in the second round. It would probably take multiple injuries to Chicago pass catchers for Kmet to be fantasy-relevant this season.