Where will Kris Bryant be selected in this dynasty draft?

Twelve FantasyPros MLB News Desk writers conducted a Yahoo Dynasty Draft on Sunday, March 22nd. John Aubin of the Boston Red Sox, Jeff Krisko of the San Francisco Giants, Dale Redman of the Chicago Cubs, Rob Klein of the Milwaukee Brewers, Charlie Finn of the Boston Red Sox and Chris Zolli of the New York Yankees offer insight for fantasy owners to digest. Keep in mind that this was a mixed league with 20 year-to-year keepers and 26 players per roster. It is a normal 5X5 league, with saves swapped out in favor of saves+holds.

This is the analysis for the first six rounds of the draft. We will provide analysis on the following picks through the weekend.

ROUND 1 (Chris Zolli)

1. Mike Trout (LAA-OF) Winston-Salem Dash

2. Miguel Cabrera (DET-1B/3B) Lakewood Blue Claws

3. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA-OF) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Andrew McCutchen (PIT-OF) Bakersfield Blake

5. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI-1B) Sacramento RiverCats

6. Bryce Harper (WSH, OF) Akron Rubber Ducks

7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD-SP) Modesto Nuts

8. Jose Abreu (CHW-1B) Durham Bulls

9. Yasiel Puig (LAD-OF) Alburquerque Isotopes

10. Carlos Gomez (MIL-OF) South Shore Sox

11. Jose Bautista (TOR-1B/OF) SWB RailRiders

12. Anthony Rizzo (CHC-1B) Beloit Snappers

Summary: For some, the first round is where you can get tripped up, especially in a dynasty draft, because you are not only looking for your best player this year, but also a player you can build a team around. Considering that this is a league where 20 players are kept, your first pick needs to be someone you could live with for the next five years. Ten of the 12 players picked in the first round were under the age of 30, and the two that are over 30, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista, are power hitters that get on base at an elite level. Seven players picked have OF eligibility, speaking to the value of an elite outfielder, and six players drafted in the first round have 20 home run/20 steal potential.

Sleeper: It is tough to name a sleeper in the first round, as these are the top players to be drafted, but getting Anthony Rizzo with the 12th pick could be a coup for Beloit in the long run. Rizzo has 40-home run upside, is only 25 years old, and is in a quickly developing Cubs’ lineup. A fantasy sleeper has to be evaluated in this way, am I getting value with my pick compared to an earlier pick? If you are asking me, I would rather have a 25-year-old Rizzo that is only getting better in a dynasty league than a 31-year-old Miguel Cabrera, who went second in the draft.

Bust: Segwaying perfectly from the sleeper pick, Miguel Cabrera has to be the bust of the first round. This is not to say that Miguel Cabrera will be bad in 2015, but, for comparision, will he be that much better than Jose Bautista in 2015? Bautista is three years older than Cabrera, but both are “older” players drafted in the first round, and one was selected nine picks later than the other. For Cabrera to be worthy of the second pick of the draft, he needs to revert to his 2013 totals, which is far from guaranteed. Losing Prince Fielder hurt him in 2014, and Victor Martinez‘s injury may make 2013 an abberation. Miguel Cabrera is a great player, but for a dynasty league he should not be the second pick.

ROUND 2 (Dale Redman)

1. Max Scherzer (WAS-SP) Beloit Snappers

2. Felix Hernandez (SEA-SP) SWB RailRiders

3. Robinson Cano (SEA-2B) South Shore Sox

4. Anthony Rendon (WAS-2B) Albuquerque Isotopes

5. Adam Jones (BAL-OF) Durham Bulls

6. Jose Altuve (HOU-2B) Modesto Nuts

7. Troy Tulowitzki (COL-SS )Akron Rubberducks

8. Madison Bumgarner (SF-SP) Sacramento River Cats

9. Chris Sale (CHW-SP) Bakersfield Blaze

10. Hanley Ramirez (BOS-SS) Portland Sea Dogs

11. Michael Brantley (CLE-OF) Lakewood Blue Claws

12. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR-1B) Winston-Salem Dash

Summary: Generally, in the second round, teams focus on grabbing the positions of scarcity, and that was no different here. The top five middle infielders and four aces were taken. Especially for a dynasty draft, this was a pretty chalk round.

Sleeper: Keeping with the second base theme, Anthony Rendon was someone I had pegged for late first round value in a dynasty draft. Only 24 years old, the Nationals infielder led the NL with 111 runs scored, and was nearly a 20/20 player while hitting .287. At a usually thin position like second base, Rendon projects to be in the top tier for years to come.

Bust: 32-year-old Robinson Cano going in the second round was no surprise, but being taken over the pair of 24-year-olds (Rendon and Altuve) in a dynasty draft was a bit shocking. While an argument can be made for Cano this year and next, the long-term future at second base clearly lies with Rendon and Altuve.

ROUND 3 (John Aubin)

1. Stephen Strasburg (WAS-SP) Winston-Salem Dash

2. Ian Desmond (WAS-SS) Lakewood BlueClaws

3. George Springer (HOU-OF) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Freddie Freeman (ATL-1B) Bakersfield Blaze

5. Josh Donaldson (TOR-3B) Sacramento RiverCats

6. Manny Machado (BAL-3B) Akron Rubber Ducks

7. Nolan Arenado (COL-3B) Modesto Nuts

8. David Price (DET-SP) Durham Bulls

9. Justin Upton (SD-OF) Albuquerque Isotopes

10. Adrián Béltre (TEX-3B) South Shore Sox

11. Starling Marte (PIT-OF) SWB Railriders

12. Corey Kluber (CLE-SP) Beloit Snappers

Summary: The third round began a run of third basemen being drafted, with four coming off the board. None of them were name Kris Bryant, though. The hot rookie prospect was passed over for a couple veterans, Josh Donaldson and Adrian Beltre, and potential stars, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado.

Sleeper: Manny Machado’s average draft positions in Yahoo drafts is 122. Machado looks like a big reach for Akron, but in a Dynasty League this could pay off in the long run. Machado’s stock has dropped due to knee injuries the past two years, but he comes into the season healthy and is loaded with potential.

Bust: In redraft leagues Adrian Beltre is a solid pick. But in a dynasty format he may only have a year or two left of strong production. Beltre is coming off a quad injury, and is 36. Given his age, he may continue to struggle with injuries. South Side passed over young studs like Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager for the aging third baseman.

ROUND 4 (Rob Klein)

1. Corey Dickerson (COL-OF) Beloit Snappers

2. Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY-OF) SWB Railriders

3. Jon Lester (CHC-SP) South Shore Sox

4. Kris Bryant (CHC-3B) Albuquerque Isotopes

5. Evan Longoria (TB-3B) Durham Bulls

6. Buster Posey (SF-C,1B ) Modesto Nuts

7. Zack Greinke (LAD-SP) Akron Rubber Ducks

8. Billy Hamilton (CIN-OF) Sacramento RiverCats

9. Matt Harvey (NYM-SP) Bakersfield Blaze

10. Mookie Betts (BOS-2B/OF) Portland Sea Dogs

11. Dee Gordon (MIA-2B) Lakewood BlueClaws

12. Jorge Soler (CHC-OF) Winston-Salem Dash

Summary: Round 4 is the meat and potatoes of any team’s roster. This round should be used for solid reliable types that a team owner can count on and plug in to start every week. Everyone wants to know when Kris Bryant is going to go, and it wound up being in this round. A mix bag of positions and category types were selected, but speed seems to have prevailed with Ellsbury, Hamilton, Betts and Gordon all going in round 4.

Sleeper: My favorite pick here is Buster Posey. A lot of people have reached for Posey in the second round in other drafts, as his average draft position is 24, but pick 42 is bargain. He will play just about every day between catcher and first base, which is a big advantage, and he will put up numbers that make owners happy.

Bust: This is more of a reach than a bust. Understanding this is a dynasty draft, we could expect Kris Bryant to go earlier than projected. With every home run Kris Bryant hits in Spring Training his draft stock continues to climb. His average draft position is 121, and I’m sure he’s going to be a fine major league player. He projects to being a .260 hitter with 20-25 home runs, and 60-70 RBI type of player. For me I’ll quietly take an Aramis Ramirez at the end of the draft or on the waiver wire that projects to hit .276 with 17 home runs and 70 RBI. No doubt Bryant has power, but it will be interesting to see where his batting average is once major league pitching gets a scouting book on how to pitch him. I’m banking on him having a year or two of growing pains.

ROUND 5 (Charlie Finn)

1. Jason Heyward (StL-OF) Winston-Salem Dash

2. Brian Dozier (MIN-2B) Lakewood Blueclaws

3. José Fernández (MIA-SP) Portland Sea Dogs

4. Ryan Braun (MIL-OF) Bakersfield Blaze

5. Jordan Zimmermann (WAS-SP) Sacramento River Cats

6. Carlos González (COL-OF) Akron RubberDucks

7. Byron Buxton (MIN-OF) Modesto Nuts

8. Gerrit Cole (PIT-SP) Durham Bulls

9. Starlin Castro (CHC-SS) Alberquerque Isotopes

10. Adrián González (LAD-1B) South Shore Sox

11. Joey Gallo (TEX-3B) SWB Railriders

12. Johnny Cueto (CIN-SP) Beloit Snappers

Summary: Round 5, like Round 4, is where the reliable members of your team are built. The round was very consistent with four starting pitchers, four outfielders and four infielders selected. The four starting pitchers showcased a middle of the round run for pitching that was capped at the end of the round by Johnny Cueto.

Sleeper: My favorite pick of this round was Ryan Braun. It is tough to label a top-10 pick a few years ago as a “sleeper,” but the possibility of Braun returning to form while healthy is why he is considered. Hitting in an outfield with Carlos Gomez really gives Braun protection in the lineup. The No. 1 factor to Braun getting back previous form is his health status.

Bust: Keeping in mind that a dynasty league always fall a little bit different than the normal draft, selecting Joey Gallo in Round 5 can be seen as a reach/bust. Adrian Beltre is getting up in age, and the Rangers are hoping the big third baseman is the future. But Gallo’s ADP right now is overall #336, #36 among third basemen. While his future is bright, this may be a bit of a reach.

ROUND 6 (Jeff Krisko)

1. Aroldis Chapman (CIN-RP) Beloit Snappers

2. Joc Pederson (LAD-OF) SWB Railriders

3. Christian Yelich (MIA-OF) South Shore Sox

4. Sonny Gray (OAK-SP) Albuquerque Isotopes

5. Julio Teherán (ATL-SP) Durham Bulls

6. Marcell Ozuna (MIA-OF) Modesto Nuts

7. Kyle Seager (SEA-3B) Akron Rubber Ducks

8 Xander Bogaerts (BOS-3B/SS) Sacramento RiverCats

9. Kolten Wong (STL-2B) Bakersfield Blaze

10. Greg Holland (KC-RP) Portland Sea Dogs

11. Masahiro Tanaka (NYY-SP) Lakewood BlueClaws

12. Ian Kinsler (DET-2B) Winston-Salem Dash

Summary: At this point in the draft, not a lot of players had gone out of place as compared to a redraft league, mostly super-prospects like Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Joey Gallo and Byron Buxton. In round six, young, useful 2015 players started to move up the ranks, with Joc Pederson being the only unproven player to go this round. Yelich, Ozuna, Seager, Bogaerts and Wong are all primed to take a step forward in 2015.

Sleeper Pick: At this point, pretty much all these players are drafted at least at value. In this group, I would peg Kolten Wong as the biggest breakout candidate of the bunch. Wong has the potential to go for 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases. He’s had an unusually low BABIP in his time in the majors, especially given his speed, so he should boost up to a useful .260 to .270 in a strong Cardinals’ lineup, and he’ll bring this production at a very weak position.

Bust Pick: There were only a handful of players that had a strict “DO NOT DRAFT” for me, and Masahiro Tanaka was at the top of the list. He has a partially torn UCL. While players such as Adam Wainwright and Ervin Santana pitched for a long time with a partially torn UCL, a complete tear would require Tommy John Surgery, putting Tanaka out for a season and a half. If that happens part-way through this season, Tanaka won’t be back until he’s 28 years old. That’s too much risk to put on one of the first six picks in a dynasty draft.