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Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Drafting From First Pick

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Drafting From First Pick

Drafting Mike Trout gives owners of the No. 1 pick an immediate edge

So your patience in waiting for fantasy baseball season has been rewarded with the No. 1 pick. Congratulations! Unless there’s a pitcher-heavy tilt, then you’ve just landed Mike Trout. For this respective 12-team redraft mock, we’re using standard 5×5 roto categories with these slots: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 3 OF, 2 Util, 3 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, and 5 BN. To complete this mock, I used our Draft Wizard which is a quick and easy way to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts.

I’m frequently asked, “Okay, I got Trout. What now?” Honestly, the world is your oyster. You’re about to see that I get pretty frisky here, and it totally works out.

A quick note on the “elbow” of a snake draft–you have to be aggressive. Take what you want, and don’t be afraid to dictate the room.

Here’s a look at a recent mock draft completed from the sixth pick partner-arrow

Without further ado, here is the draft board and breakdown via our wonderful analyzer, with my commentary to follow.

Mock Draft Picks

  • 1.01 – Mike Trout (LAA – OF)
  • 2.12 – Corey Seager (LAD – SS)
  • 3.01 – Freddie Freeman (ATL – 1B)
  • 4.12 – Kyle Seager (SEA – 3B)
  • 5.01 – Yu Darvish (TEX – SP)
  • 6.12 – Justin Upton (DET – OF)
  • 7.01 – Aroldis Chapman (NYY – RP)
  • 8.12 – Masahiro Tanaka (NYY – SP)
  • 9.01 – Seung-Hwan Oh (STL – RP)
  • 10.12 – Lorenzo Cain (KC – OF)
  • 11.01 – Aaron Sanchez (TOR – SP)
  • 12.12 – Kendrys Morales (TOR – 1B)
  • 13.01 – Michael Fulmer (DET – SP)
  • 14.12 – Aaron Nola (PHI – SP)
  • 15.01 – Jameson Taillon (PIT – SP)
  • 16.12 – Russell Martin (TOR – C)
  • 17.01 – Byron Buxton (MIN – OF)
  • 18.12 – Jose Peraza (CIN – 2B/SS/OF)
  • 19.01 – Neftali Feliz (MIL – RP)
  • 20.12 – Eric Thames (MIL – OF)
  • 21.01 – Hunter Renfroe (SD – OF)
  • 22.12 – Jharel Cotton (OAK – SP)
  • 23.01 – Eugenio Suarez (CIN – 3B/SS)
  • 24.12 – Zach Davies (MIL – SP)
  • 25.01 – Joe Panik (SF – 2B)
  • 26.12 – Gio Gonzalez (WSH – SP)

Early Rounds

Having Corey Seager make it back to me made my Round 2 decision easy. I’d much prefer to get one of the top six shortstop-eligible players inside of the first four rounds in 2017. After that, I faced my first real decision, as I could either take an ace or a big bat. I’m not considering speed-first guys like Starling Marte. I will always pay for power first and wait on speed (Rajai Davis went in the last round!) since premier pop can carry runs, RBI and average, while speed really only yields runs and average.

If the format called for more than three outfielders then I’d have gone with Nelson Cruz over Freddie Freeman, but Atlanta’s slugger is poised for a strong 2017. With the lower left-field fence and shorter right-field porch of SunTrust Park, Freeman could buy a few more homers. I’m loving this draft so far.

Next came Kyle Seager and then my first pitcher, Yu Darvish. The elder Seager joins his sibling on my squad, as my power foundation is rock solid without any average liabilities. The engine is pushing Giancarlo Stanton hard in Round 5, but this illustrates why I go power early. I don’t need to roll dice for power. If I had drafted Clayton Kershaw then I might. However, I do need to gamble in order to get a top-five arm. If Darvish can stay healthy (a significant if), then he returns third-round profits.

What comes next? More power! Justin Upton at No. 72 is always going to be a “buy” for me. I know how badly he burned us for much of 2016, but fantasy analyst Harry Dunne summed up Upton’s late-season surge well, “You know, [Justin], just when I think you couldn’t possibly be any [worse], you go and do something like this…and totally redeem yourself!” In the end, Upton tied his career high in homers (31) and I’ll take the 29-year-old in his second season in the AL at a discount.

I felt extremely confident in my offense, so I decided to attack pitching backward, meaning I actually drafted Aroldis Chapman before selecting Seung-Hwan Oh two rounds later. In between them, I took another arm in Masahiro Tanaka. Interestingly enough, half of the picks in Rounds 7-9 were pitchers, so the opportunity cost wasn’t high.

Mid-Rounds

With plenty of power and some arms in tow, I decided to snag bounce-back candidate Lorenzo Cain next. I would’ve loved to get Adam Eaton here, but I’ll still take Cain and what should be healthy, albeit not astounding, five-category contributions. This pick was my least favorite.

Four of my next five picks were emerging young arms–Aaron Sanchez, Michael Fulmer, Aaron Nola and Jameson Taillon. I’m confident in all four of them turning a profit at their current ADP, especially Taillon. Pittsburgh’s control artist didn’t miss a beat upon facing big-league competition and tallied 165 2/3 total innings last season, so I’m all about him in 2017. Even if Nola’s elbow doesn’t hold up, he’s just my SP5.

Sneaking into the 12th round was a Kendrys Morales pick that I’m enamored with, as he trades in roomy Kauffman Stadium for power-friendly Rogers Centre while coming off a year where his .263 average should’ve been a lot closer to 2015’s .290 mark. Going from a .319 BABIP to .283 despite posting nearly identical fly ball, ground ball and line drive rates while raising one’s hard-hit rate from 35.3 percent to a career-high 41.1 percent should not lead to a marked drop. Buy.

After nabbing another Blue Jay in Russell Martin, I decided it was time to insure myself in case Cain doesn’t return to form. Enter, Byron Buxton. After disappointing for much of 2016, the buzzy prospect crushed nine homers with a .287/.357/.653 triple slash from Sept. 1 on. He needs to reduce the whiffs (33.6 percent), but the guy just turned 23. I’ll bite.

Late Rounds

With that risk recognized, it felt great to take two late-round fliers in reclamation project Eric Thames and upper-deck destroyer Hunter Renfroe. Steamer projects Thames for 30 homers, 13 steals and a .272 average with Miller Park as home after he crushed 124 homers and stole 64 bags across three seasons in the KBO. Meanwhile, Renfroe’s own power ceiling with a decent average is nothing to scoff at. The risk is there, but these guys are perfect late-round fliers.

Final note: Nabbing Joe Panik in Round 25 is criminal. I really doubt he suddenly can’t hit in his mid-twenties, so I’ll bank on his 17.5 percent line-drive rate rebounding to his ’14 and ’15 marks of about 23 percent.

Here’s a look at how the Draft Wizard rated my draft:

Overall, I can scientifically state that starting your draft with Trout increases one’s quality of life. Attacking power early with consistent bats allows one to take risks later with speed. Grabbing two elite closers anchored my ratios without spending a top-round pick on a pitcher. I will take more risks with speed and with arms. I went a bit out of my comfort zone but still received a 92 grade from our analysis tool, so let’s pop the bubbly!

Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft using our draft simulator tool partner-arrow

Thanks for coming by, and be on the lookout for my next piece, where we’ll mock from the middle of a 12-teamer.

Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.

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