We’re now three articles deep inside my rankings versus ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings), but if you’ve missed the first two, we’ve covered the quarterbacks and running backs. In this series, we take a look at players that I have ranked much higher or lower than the consensus, and try to give you reasoning as to why they are there.
One of the positions whose rankings shouldn’t change drastically from the NFL Draft are those at the wide receiver position. Sure, there will be some top-tier wide receivers drafted to make an immediate impact, but teams like the Falcons with Julio Jones aren’t going to be drafting Corey Davis or anything. If anyone will see their value drastically change, it’s those who are currently in the No. 1 role (like Rishard Matthews), but are not necessarily fit to be the focal point of an offense. As things currently stand, let’s take a look at a few that I’m higher/lower on than most.
WIDE RECEIVERS LOWER THAN THEY SHOULD BE
Stefon Diggs, MIN (My ranking: 18, ECR: 27)
This one doesn’t surprise me much, because most just tie injuries to Diggs and don’t remember how good he was when healthy on the field. Unfortunately there were only six games in which Diggs was not on the injury report, but he shined in those games. The Vikings have attempted to improve their offensive line, but the addition of Latavius Murray isn’t going to improve their run game much, if at all. It was his first year playing together with Sam Bradford and they didn’t even have an off-season together (Bradford didn’t play Week 1 because he traded at the end of the preseason). Despite his first year with Bradford, the emergence of Adam Thielen, and playing through injuries much of the year, Diggs was No. 14 in PPR points per game among wide receivers. Below is the chart from when he was on/off the injury report.
| Games | Tgts/gm | Rec/gm | Yds/gm | TD/gm | STD PPG | PPR PPG | |
| On Injury Report | 7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 37.3 | 0.14 | 4.6 | 8.6 |
| Off Injury Report | 6 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 107.0 | 0.33 | 12.9 | 22.2 |
Pierre Garcon, SF (My ranking: 31, ECR: 52)
I would expect the general public to be down on Garcon, but didn’t expect the ECR to be so low. He’s below guys like Malcolm Mitchell, Josh Doctson, and Tyler Lockett right now, and that doesn’t make any sense. Going to the 49ers may seem like a death sentence to some, but not when you’re going to be playing with the coach who gave you a league-leading 182 targets just a few years ago. The 49ers have also upgraded their quarterback position going to Brian Hoyer, who has kept names like DeAndre Hopkins and Cameron Meredith afloat in fantasy the last two years. The ECR may have the anticipation of them drafting a wide receiver built into it, but unless it’s one of the top two guys (hint: they aren’t taking a wide receiver at No. 2), Garcon is going to see plenty of targets. They are paying him over $15 million in the first year of his contract, which should tell you all you need to know – they valued him a lot. The depth chart behind Garcon consists of Marquise Goodwin, Jeremy Kerley, Aldrick Robinson, DeAndre Smelter, and others. He’s going to be a WR3, almost by default.
WIDE RECEIVERS HIGHER THAN THEY SHOULD BE
Julian Edelman, NE (My ranking: 37, ECR: 21)
This was a hard ranking to swallow, as Edelman has been one of the safest players to rank for a long time. The addition of Brandin Cooks has clouded the entire pool of pass catchers, but the one he’ll have the biggest effect on is Edelman. Over the last four years, Edelman has seen a ridiculous 9.33 targets per game, including 9.94 per game in 2016. Despite those massive target totals, Edelman has never finished better than the No. 18 wide receiver in standard leagues (what the primary ECR is), yet he’s ranked at No. 21? The Patriots and Tom Brady targeted wide receivers just 279 times in 2016, 291 times in 2015, and 306 times in 2014. Keep in mind that Rob Gronkowski missed a lot of time in there as well, which would only mean more targets for the receivers. You cannot forget about Malcolm Mitchell, who was a big playmaker for them in his rookie season, and Chris Hogan, who they paid decent money for in free agency. Both of those receivers are going to see plenty of targets alongside Cooks and Edelman, meaning the days of seeing anywhere close to 10 targets per game are over. Add in a healthy Gronkowski, James White, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, Dwayne Allen, and you have yourself a situation to avoid.
Jordan Matthews, PHI (My ranking: 42, ECR: 33)
When seeing Matthews at No. 33, my first thought was that nobody has done their projections yet. When looking at wide receivers, you have to figure out what their target potential is, and while it was high for Matthews in 2016, that is no longer the case. Not only did the Eagles go out and acquire the biggest free agent wide receiver out there in Alshon Jeffery, but they also went out and signed veteran Torrey Smith. Over the last four years, Jeffery has garnered nearly nine targets per game in the Bears offense, while Smith averaged nearly seven targets before going to the 49ers to drift into oblivion (I’m not salty or anything). The point of that is similar to the one brought up with Edelman – there are only so many targets to go around. Matthews himself averaged 8.36 targets per game last year, yet he finished as the No. 49 wide receiver in points per game. His 0.84 fantasy points per target ranked No. 121 of 154 receivers that saw at least one target. The moves that the Eagles made this offseason were good for the football team, but not for Matthews’ fantasy prospects.
More Under/Overvalued Picks
Running Backs
Quarterbacks
Tight Ends
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
