Batting average and on-base percentage are the hardest categories to control in the draft room, and once you realize that you have let them slip, it is almost impossible to rectify with late round picks. Some players have the elite skills to help in both categories, so are obviously must-adds in all formats.
Others have aspects of their game that give an advantage to one or the other. It goes without saying that you must ensure you know the scoring format for your league.
In general, players with a high batting average also have good on-base abilities. It is not always the case with high-OBP players. The Indians’ Carlos Santana is an excellent slugger with elite on-base skills, but his career .247 AVG will hurt in usual 5×5 leagues where batting average is a category.
The .300 AVG hitter with the worst on-base percentage is Dee Gordon, who has .335 OBP over the last three years. Although it is not great, it will not damage you in OBP leagues. Over the last three years, 19 players have a batting average of .300 or above, and 33 players have an on-base percentage above .360 (min 400 PA).
10 players appear on both lists: Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Altuve, Corey Seager, Michael Brantley, Aledmys Diaz, Buster Posey, and D.J. LeMahieu. We will take a look at a few other players that can help in one or other of the formats.
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Players to Target for OBP
Josh Donaldson (3B – TOR) ADP 10
The former AL MVP increased his walks to 109 last year from an average of 75 over the previous three seasons. It helped propel him to a career-high on-base percentage. The 31-year-old has improved his OBP year-on-year for the past three seasons from .342 in 2014 to .404 in 2016.
This has been matched by an increase in the pitches he has seen per plate appearance, increasing from 3.90 to 4.22. Donaldson and Manny Machado (ADP 8) are projected for very similar counting stats, so it would be a good decision to take Donaldson ahead of the Orioles’ third baseman in OBP leagues.
Jose Bautista (RF – TOR) ADP 87
Over the last seven years, no-one has hit more home runs than Jose Bautista. Sure he had an injury-plagued down season in 2016, but he still got on-base at .366 OBP. During these seven years as the premier slugger, Bautista has a .387 OBP.
The biggest issue facing the 36-year-old this season is health. In the two years prior to 2016, the right-hander hit 75 home runs with 217 RBIs and 214 walks.
For as long as he poses a home run threat, pitchers will be cautious when facing him, and for as long as he is happy to take a walk, he will post elite on-base numbers. Bautista leads the Blue Jays in Spring Training with .563 AVG and .611 OBP.
Brandon Belt (1B – SF) ADP 157
The Giants’ first baseman is a perennial breakout candidate. Few players can have appeared on sleeper lists as frequently as the 28-year-old. The season of truly elite counting stats may never materialize, but he is an interesting pick for OBP leagues.
In 2016, the right-hander enjoyed a surge to 15.9 BB%, up from a career-average 9.8 BB%, which contributed to the massive increase in walks from 56 up to 104. Over the last five years (649 games), Belt has a .366 OBP, and that hit a career-high .394 OBP in 2016.
This put him in the top-10 between first rounders Jose Altuve and Miguel Cabrera. He has good numbers in Spring Training, hitting .324 (12-for-37) with two home runs and .381 OBP. Belt is expected to hit second for the Giants ahead of Buster Posey and Hunter Pence.
Matt Holliday (1B/LF – NYY) ADP 243
In eight years for the Cardinals, Matt Holliday knew how to get on-base. His .380 OBP in over 4000 plate appearances, puts him in the top-10, just ahead of David Ortiz. This season, Holliday will look to emulate the Red Sox’ legendary slugger as he transitions into a full-time DH.
The 37-year-old consistently walks and had an average of 10.8 BB% in his tenure with the Cardinals. Although the acquisition of Chris Carter could eat into his playing time, if Holliday stays healthy, expect another season of 20+ home runs with .370 OBP. Holliday has hit four home runs in Spring Training with .357 OBP.
Josh Bell (1B – PIT) ADP 274
The Pirates’ first baseman is an anomaly in today’s baseball. He is a young slugger with a dislike of striking out. The 23-year-old had a .396 OBP in his Triple-A career and did not look overmatched in his Major League debut stint last season, with more walks than strikeouts and .368 OBP.
If the Pirates can be patient for Bell’s power to develop, then he will be a very valuable asset in OBP leagues this season. Bell will need to use his on-base skills to maximize the potential of hitting in front of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco.
Shin-Soo Choo (RF – TEX) ADP 324
There is a correlation between 30-somethings still playing at the highest level and good on-base skills. Choo is the fourth player over 30 years old on this list of targets. Unfortunately, there is also a correlation between 30-somethings and injury.
Choo has missed 166 games over the last three years, but if he can stay healthy, the Korean has demonstrated a consistent ability to get on-base. In 11 years since joining MLB, he has never had a season without walking at least 10% of the time.
Over the last five years, the left-hander has an on-base percentage of .379. In an attempt to protect his health, Choo will benefit from being the Rangers’ everyday designated hitter this season.
Players to Target for AVG
Daniel Murphy (1B/2B – WAS) ADP 31
The Nationals’ second baseman is one of the best fantasy producers, yet there is still suspicion as to whether he is the real deal. He has not slowed down since his 2015 postseason home run hitting exploits.
Whether you buy into the 65+ point increase in his AVG and OBP, it does not detract from the .291 AVG over the previous five years. He had proved to be a reliable source for high batting average even before he became a fantasy baseball stud. The 31-year-old will hit behind Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon this season.
Even if his counting stats regress to 2015 levels, Murphy will still help you in the batting average category.
Jose Ramirez (3B/LF – CLE) ADP 111
The versatile Indians’ hitter posted .312 AVG last season in the breakout campaign that saw him finish as a top-10 third baseman and top-25 outfielder, despite being undrafted in most leagues. Ramirez has a mature approach at the plate with excellent contact skills.
If he swings, he generally makes contact. The 24-year-old is in the top-10 of hitters with 88.8 Contact%. On pitches outside of the strike zone, no one had a better contact rate last season than Ramirez’s 84.4%.
Plus, he has speed to turn grounders into singles, as shown by 162 stolen bases across all levels. Ramirez is hitting .316 in the Cactus League and is expected to add 2B-eligibility when he stands in for the injured Jason Kipnis.
Yadier Molina (C – STL) ADP 195
Over the last six years and spanning more than 800 games (including a couple of injury-ravaged seasons), the Cardinals’ catcher has a batting average over .300. Only seven players have hit higher, including superstars Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. Catchers, especially those outside of the elite tier, have the potential to hurt more than help in leagues that count batting average.
Buster Posey is the only catcher projected to hit higher than Molina this season. Molina is hitting .333 in the World Baseball Classic with .619 SLG. It is safe to assume he will start April in midseason form.
Devon Travis (2B – TOR) ADP 229
The Blue Jays’ second baseman is a career .308 hitter across all levels, including .301 in 163 Major League games. The speedy 26-year-old doesn’t like to swing and miss, and if he can avoid injury, he will be a reliable source of batting average (as well as runs and RBIs) in 2017. Travis underwent minor knee surgery in the offseason and his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy.
He is only expected to miss a few games at the most, yet he is falling down draft boards. Look to draft him at a discount.
Cameron Maybin (OF – DET) ADP 335
Another injury-risk pick, who if healthy, could be an excellent source of batting average late in the draft. Maybin posted .383 OBP with the Tigers in a resurgent 2016, which was fueled by a career-high .312 AVG.
The .383 BABIP suggests a regression in his batting average in 2017 is inevitable, but the 29-year-old became more of a selective hitter last season, going opposite field at the highest rate of this career. Maybin is expected to be the Angels’ everyday left fielder with the possibility of leading off, when the Angels realize that Yunel Escobar is failing to capitalize on the potential of hitting ahead of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols.
Hyun Soo Kim (OF – BAL) (undrafted)
The 29-year-old hit .318 AVG over nine years in Korea and posted .302 AVG over 95 games in the majors last season. The Orioles’ outfielder will be in a platoon again, which although will impact his ability to rack up counting stats, should ensure that he maintains a high batting average. Last season, the left-hander only had 18 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, so it ‘s hard to see a significant uptick in playing time.
He has a patient approach at the plate and seldom swings and misses. Kim consistently walks (10.4 BB% in the majors and 12.5 BB% in Korea) and already has five walks to nine strikeouts in Spring Training.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or follow him @_tramps.
