Hey, everyone. Jared from Fantasy Cruncher here. I’ll be writing the Wednesday, Friday and Saturday FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice articles every week for FantasyPros this year. Really excited to share my thoughts and recommended plays with you throughout the season!
This evening, we have a medium-sized, eight-game slate thanks to the afternoon action taking place earlier in the day. Lineups lock tonight at 7:10 pm EST.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Weather
Rain is likely to be a factor in a couple games tonight, but the one I am most worried about is the Twins/Royals match-up. It’s a shame, as there is a pretty good chance it is wiped out with thunderstorms expected pretty much all afternoon and evening. We could be looking at a PPD here, and as a result, I will fade it for this column. I’d love to attack Phil Hughes with some Royals bats that are starting to heat up, but we’ll have to save that for another day.
Hey, everyone. Jared from Fantasy Cruncher here. I’ll be writing the Wednesday, Friday and Saturday FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice articles every week for FantasyPros this year. Really excited to share my thoughts and recommended plays with you throughout the season!
This evening, we have a medium-sized, eight-game slate thanks to the afternoon action taking place earlier in the day. Lineups lock tonight at 7:10 pm EST.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Weather
Rain is likely to be a factor in a couple games tonight, but the one I am most worried about is the Twins/Royals match-up. It’s a shame, as there is a pretty good chance it is wiped out with thunderstorms expected pretty much all afternoon and evening. We could be looking at a PPD here, and as a result, I will fade it for this column. I’d love to attack Phil Hughes with some Royals bats that are starting to heat up, but we’ll have to save that for another day.
Overall Thoughts
The SP landscape is pretty clear for me tonight, and I’m thrilled to rock out with Brandon McCarthy on the mound. He provides a bit of salary relief from the upper-tier names like Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke, and in my opinion, has an even clearer path to a high ROI game than they do. The three key teams that I want to exploit with a high percentage of my plays for hitting exposure are LAD, ARI and TEX. KC/MIN would have been in that category as well, but the rain risk (high PPD likelihood) knocks that one out for me. Let’s get right down to it.
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Pitcher
Brandon McCarthy (LAD): $8,000 vs PHI
He is by far the heaviest favorite on the Saturday evening main slate (-216) and has an implied team total of only 3 runs. As a result, McCarthy sits at the top of the list for me, thanks in large part to his ground ball skills, low hard hit rate (21.3% YTD) and elite chase rate (35.2% swings outside the zone). He’s due for some negative regression (1.5 run difference between the SIERA and ERA), but he also faces a Phillies team with the highest K% in a split on the slate at 24% vs RHP. There’s a strong possibility that he finishes the day as the top-scoring SP overall on FanDuel, and for the price, I’m thrilled to roll with him in my lineup. He should be a cash game staple and a highly productive GPP play as well.
Other Notables
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $2,900 vs PHI
I hope that Dave Roberts lets Grandal start on Saturday night, even though he played on Friday as well. The good news is that it’s a night game after a night game the day prior, so I think there is a pretty good chance this happens – particularly since McCarthy doesn’t have a dedicated catcher or anything of the sort. Grandal has excellent wOBA and ISO numbers vs RHP, and Eflin is easily the weakest SP on the slate (outside of Phil Hughes, who we aren’t putting on our consideration list today thanks to the weather risk), with a 4.99 SIERA YTD and a 54.3% fly ball rate. Grandal and the Dodgers should have no problem going deep at home against him here, and he’s a fantastic C option tonight.
Other Notables
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $4,600 vs COL
There aren’t too many articles I’ve written on FantasyPros this year where starting a mid-range SP like McCarthy has been the play. That’s kept us in the mid-$3,000s for most bats on the high end, but an $8K McCarthy allows for a couple elite names here. Goldy leads the pack as my most expensive bat but for good reason. He has a great RHB vs LHP split vs Tyler Anderson (who I like as an arm – but not on the slate), with a wOBA split over .420 dating back to last year. Lock and load, baby.
Other Notables
Second Base
Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,200 vs LAA
The short list at 2B for me today is Odor and Joe Panik. If Profar (or a viable OF at his price) aren’t in play, we may pivot down to Panik instead of Odor and go that route. That said, for the price point and against Jesse Chavez who has some pretty poor numbers vs LHB, he’s the guy I want in my lineup. The hard contact rate is fine for Odor over the last couple weeks (35.9% per Fangraphs) and he’s getting good lift on the ball (48.7% FB rate). He could go deep tonight, and if I have the option of having him over Panik from an upside perspective, he’s the guy.
Other Notables
Third Base
Justin Turner (LAD): $3,700 vs PHI
Turner hasn’t been hitting the cover off the ball lately, but he looked good last night with a couple hits and is a stud vs RHP as we all know. The .391 wOBA and .229 ISO vs RHP dating back to the early part of 2015 make him a truly elite play against Eflin tonight, and I highly suggest you consider heavy exposure.
Other Notables
Shortstop
Corey Seager (LAD): $3,700 vs PHI
Another day, another FantasyPros column written by me, and another Corey Seager play. As much as I love Seager as a ball player, there is no reason he shouldn’t be closer to $4,500 on the slate today. He’s ripping the ball lately (54.1% hard hit rate over the last two weeks) and is a monster vs RHP from a wOBA/ISO perspective. He rounds out my full-out LAD exposure on the slate, and I’m thrilled to have him as a cornerstone of my offense.
Other Notables
Outfield
A.J. Pollock (ARI): $4,000 vs COL
Pollock is my favorite OF on the slate, and I wanted to play him last night as well if the cash permitted (he was the top of my “Other Notables” list). He hits LHP well and has a 40% hard hit rate over his last 14 games (92 mph exit velocity per Statcast). He should be an anchor in a very high percentage of lineups tonight, and I’ll be one of those participating in that frenzy.
Delino DeShields (TEX): $2,500 vs LAA
DeShields had a decent night yesterday, and I love the price point once again if he’s hitting at the top of the order for Texas. There is a nice amount of SB upside against Chavez (RHP) if he can get on base once or twice, and the price is certainly right for a guy hitting the ball well with tremendous wheels (and a green light to put that into action on the base paths). He is one of the better values on the board tonight, especially with his team total of nearly 5 runs as a potential leadoff hitter.
Cory Spangenberg (SD): $2,400 @ SF
If I’m going to stay on the teams that I want heavy exposure to for this last pick, I’d have to consider a guy like Jurickson Profar (assuming he starts), but I am not crazy about what I’ve seen from him this season. Matt Cain is another attackable SP (and stacking against him in GPPs with Padres isn’t a bad idea for contrarian exposure), but I’ll stick with one middle-of-the-order LHB who hits RHP very well (and Cain struggles mightily in the split). Spangenberg has a 91 mph exit velocity over his last few games and can really get the wheels going to drive a bit of SB upside, too.
Other Notables
My Lineup
- SP – Brandon McCarthy (LAD): $8,000 vs PHI
- C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $2,900 vs PHI
- 1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI): $4,600 vs COL
- 2B – Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,200 vs LAA
- 3B – Justin Turner (LAD): $3,700 vs LAD
- SS – Corey Seager (LAD): $3,700 vs PHI
- OF – A.J. Pollock (ARI): $4,000 vs COL
- OF – Delino DeShields (TEX): $2,500 vs LAA
- OF – Cory Spangenberg (SD): $2,400 @ SF
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Jared Kwart is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, find his work at FantasyCruncher.com and follow him @FCJaredK.
