Last week, I opened with the harsh reality of replacing Mike Trout in fantasy lineups. This week, there’s no bad news like that to open with. There’s also no update on when the humidor will be completed and used at Chase Field in Arizona, so let’s jump right into things.
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Notable Matchups
Diamondbacks @ Tigers (2), @ Phillies (3)
Yes, Arizona picks up a designated hitter for their two games to start next week. That’s the only good news for their offense, though. They play just five games, and all five are on the road. The Snakes rank dead last in wRC+ (71) on the road this year, according to FanGraphs, and their strikeout rate balloons to 25.4%.
Orioles @ White Sox (4), vs. Cardinals (3)
In addition to getting a boost from a full slate of seven games next week, the O’s should feast on a collection of underwhelming probable starting pitchers.
Red Sox vs. Phillies (2), @ Phillies (2), @ Astros (3)
The Red Sox only play two games at home, but the good news far outweighs the bad. The probable pitching matchups are soft, and the bats are awarded a full complement of seven games. Furthermore, don’t be too worried about five road tilts, Boston’s bats have traveled this year with them ranking fourth in road wRC+ (104).
Cubs @ Mets (3), @ Pirates (3)
The Cubs don’t have the worst pitching matchups next week, but they’re on the road for all six games in a pair of pitcher-friendly parks. Citi Field and PNC Park suppress runs, as you can see by clicking on the links to StatCorner. They continue to depress scoring this year, and in the case of Citi Field, the run scoring has been downright tough to come by, according to the park factors for 2017 at ESPN. Only Minute Maid Park and AT&T Park have lower park factors for runs scored in 2017 than Citi Field.
Indians vs. Dodgers (3), @ Twins (4)
The Indians will play seven games in six days next week thanks to a doubleheader scheduled against the Twins on Saturday, June 17th. The interesting thing that caught my eye when glancing at their schedule is that they’re projected to face at least three left-handed starting pitchers with one of the doubleheader game’s starters not yet announced.
Angels vs. Yankees (3), vs Royals (4)
Like the Indians, the Angels are projected to face four lefties (C.C. Sabathia, Jordan Montgomery, Eric Skoglund, and Jason Vargas). They play a full seven-game slate next week, and all are at home, where they’ve been much better offensively (109 wRC+) than on the road (76 wRC+).
Dodgers @ Indians (3), @ Reds (3)
The Dodgers invade Ohio next week for six games. That’s two series in homer-friendly venues. They’ve been one of the worst hitting teams on the road this year ranking 20th in wRC+ (86) away from their home cooking, but next week looks like a positive for the hitters thanks to the addition of a DH for their three games in Cleveland as well as the park factors they’ll be treated to in both of Ohio’s ballparks.
Brewers @ Cardinals (4), vs. Padres (3)
The Brewers face only right-handed starting pitchers next week.
Mets vs. Cubs (3), vs. Nationals (4)
Remember that nugget above about how pitcher-friendly Citi Field has been this year? Well, it should come as no surprise the Mets have been one of the worst offenses at home this season with that in mind. They rank 26th with an 87 wRC+ at home, and their awful .225/.304/.367 triple slash tells the story from a fantasy perspective. The pitching matchups will make life hell for the Mets’ hitters, too. Among the pitchers they’ll face next week are Jon Lester, Gio Gonzalez, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.
Giants vs. Royals (2), @ Rockies (4)
The Giants’ hitters are next week’s winners of the Coors Field getaway. It’s the only series in Colorado since the Rockies are on the road to start the week, but it’s a massive park factor upgrade for San Francisco’s hitters.
Hitter Notes
Jose Ramirez (CLE)
I mentioned above that the Indians project to face at least three lefties next week. I failed to mention one of those lefties is Clayton Kershaw. If you’re in a shallow league with weekly lineup changes, it’s not unreasonable to sit Ramirez if you have a decent bench bat at the position you typically start the Swiss-Army-Knife. He’s hitting just .253/.305/.360 against lefties in 82 plate appearances against them this year. He did hit .311/.368/.473 against them last year, but his career slash line of .272/.328/.389 against southpaws is mediocre.
Bradley Zimmer (CLE)
Zimmer has turned heads since reaching The Show, but gamers in leagues with weekly lineup changes should turn elsewhere next week, and those who play in leagues with daily changes should sit him when the Indians face a lefty. While Ramirez’s career slash line is defensible to start in deep leagues and standard leagues where the bench alternative is weak, Zimmer makes for an especially poor play. His high strikeout rate should be exploited in same-handed matchups, and his minor-league splits available at MiLB.com show some struggles against southpaws in the upper minors.
Kole Calhoun (LAA)
Calhoun has been on an absolute tear since the calendar flipped to June. He kicked the month off with a pair of dingers on June 1st, and he’s added two more while hitting .600/.650/1.400 overall this month. Normally that type of production would lead to an obvious suggestion of riding out the heater. It’s a little trickier in this case. Calhoun has reached the seats four times against southpaws this year, but he’s hitting just .180/.288/.440 against them. Prior to this season, he’d hit .257/.327/.411 with 17 homers in 574 plate appearances against lefties. That’s a good enough line to warrant some consideration in larger leagues, but I’d be less enthused about using him in standard leagues that utilize weekly lineup changes. If you’re in a league that uses daily changes, you’re in luck. Not all of the left-handed pitching matchups are terrible for him. I’d sit Calhoun against Sabathia and Montgomery since both are tough on lefties, but Skoglund’s unproven and Vargas has been pounded by lefties this year and shown some susceptibility against them throughout his career.
Stephen Vogt (OAK)
Meet your new top target for streaming steals against. Vogt has allowed the most stolen bases among all catchers this season. He’s surrendered 31 stolen bases in 31 starts. He’s the only catcher in the top five in stolen bases allowed who’s started fewer than 40 games. Couple his incompetence controlling the running game with his ineptitude at the dish, and one has to wonder how much longer he’ll hold down starting catcher duties for the A’s.
Pitcher Notes
Tyler Chatwood (COL)
Chatwood’s a two-start starter this week, but he gets the nod in this section of the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner as a result of his first start of the week. He’ll start against the Pirates at PNC Park, and he makes for a strong streaming additions. In 120.1 innings pitched on the road since the beginning of last year, Chatwood owns a 2.02 ERA (3.87 FIP and 4.16 xFIP), 1.06 WHIP, 11.0% BB%, and 19.9% K%. He’s been a bit lucky according to the fielding independent measures, but the Pirates make for a soft road matchup for him. Even with a start at Coors Field to round out the week, gamers in weekly leagues can consider giving him a spin since he draws the Giants at home, and they rank dead last in wRC+ (77) against righties in 2017.
Randall Delgado (ARI)
Delgado opened the year in Arizona’s bullpen, but when Taijuan Walker hit the disabled list in late May, Delgado was pushed into the starting rotation. He wasn’t expected to remain in the rotation, but that’s where he’ll stay even when Walker returns. The 27-year-old has earned his rotation spot by pitching brilliantly in three starts. In those three turns, he’s pitched 15 innings to the tune of a 1.80 ERA (2.33 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, and 3.15 SIERA) with a 1.07 WHIP, 3.5% BB%, and 26.3% K%. The righty’s robust strikeout rate is supported by his gaudy 13.0% swinging strike percentage (10.3% league average this year, per FanGraphs). Delgado was once a top prospect, and he has an electric arsenal. He fits the profile of a post-hype breakout and should be owned in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers.
Danny Salazar (CLE)
Salazar has been dreadful this year, and after just two relief appearances after being demoted to the bullpen, he’s hit the disabled list with right shoulder soreness. He’ll get in some work at Double-A Akron according to multiple reports. Jordan Bastian (Indians reporter for MLB.com) provided a series of tweets discussing Salazar and the situation that you can check out here. Salazar’s strikeout upside remains tantalizing, but gamers in shallow leagues can cut bait. Those in standard leagues who don’t have a free DL spot to stash him can do the same. If you do have a DL spot to work with, though, stash him. There’s no harm in keeping tabs on his progress in the minors if you have the open spot anyway.
Dallas Keuchel (HOU)
Uh oh. It looks like the lefty’s neck is still bothering him. The Astros placed him on the 10-day DL retroactive to June 5, so it’s possible he could be activated next week. However, unless the team announces plans to activate him next week after he’s medically evaluated, then it’s best to keep him on your bench or DL in leagues with weekly lineup changes. Houston’s top prospect Francis Martes was promoted to the parent club, but his control problems (17.2% BB% at the Triple-A level this year) make him a player to leave in the free agent pool in re-draft leagues.
Juan Nicasio (PIT)
Save speculators should scoop up the widely available Nicasio. Tony Watson blew another save on Thursday, and the lefty’s ERA now sits at 4.44 after 24 appearances. The 32-year-old’s fielding independent marks are actually worse than his ERA, so he’s not just suffering from bad luck. Pittsburgh’s manager Clint Hurdle indicated he has “given some serous thought” to using Nicasio as the closer. Felipe Rivero has been lights out in Pittsburgh’s bullpen this year, but in the same linked article, Hurdle brought up Andrew Miller’s high-leverage usage in non-save situations when discussing Rivero. It appears Hurdle would prefer to have Rivero available for high-leverage situations that might present themselves before the ninth inning as opposed to naming him the closer. Getting back to Nicasio, he’s pitched very well this year with a 1.35 ERA (2.20 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, and, according to Baseball Prospectus, 3.62 DRA), 1.05 WHIP, 7.5% BB%, and 23.4% K% in 28 relief appearances spanning 26.2 innings. The righty has historically struggled with left-handed batters, but he’s held the 49 he’s faced this year to a .200/.277/.256 line. There’s no guarantee he’ll take over ninth-inning duties, but if you wait until he’s officially named the closer, the price will go up or you’ll miss the boat entirely.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
