Today’s lineup blends a high ceiling with a high floor. I constructed it with GPPs in mind, but it plays in cash games quite well, too. There’s no stack, but there is a pair of teammate pairings. I’m not providing honorable mentions for the three infielders who are part of the teammate pairings. The duo manning the corner is too great of values at their salaries to pass up for this particular roster construction.
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Pitcher
Charlie Morton (HOU) : $8,800 @ Phillies
Morton and the Astros are -158 favorites on the road, per Pinnacle Sports. The Phillies represent a soft matchup for him, too. Philadelphia ranks 28th in wRC+ (86) and 26th in wOBA (.307) against right-handed pitchers this year, according to FanGraphs, while striking out in 23.5% of their plate appearances against them. Morton has carried over his extra velocity demonstrated in an injury-shortened 2016 campaign with the Phillies last year, and he’s punched out a whopping 25.5% of the batters he’s faced this year with a 10.4% SwStr%. The righty’s 51.2% GB% this year will serve him well in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. His strikeout rate has dipped a tiny bit to 24.7% over the last 30 days, but it’s been accompanied by an uptick in missed bats with a 11.2% SwStr%, so I’m optimistic he’ll punch out plenty of Phillies tonight. The 33-year-old’s 4.18 ERA is decent in this run-scoring environment, and it’s actually a bit higher than his advanced measures — 4.14 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, and 3.91 SIERA as well as a 4.03 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Jake Faria (TBR) : $8,500 vs. Orioles
None of the five-figure arms are particularly appealing to me tonight, and I’d much rather grab a pair of solid arms instead. Mike Clevinger, featured below in the honorable mentions, is the only arm over $9,000 on my radar. Getting back to Faria, after dominating at Triple-A before his call up, he hasn’t skipped a beat in the Majors. In eight starts spanning 50.0 innings, the rookie righty has spun a 2.52 ERA (3.53 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, 4.26 SIERA, and 4.38 DRA), 1.08 WHIP, 7.4% BB%, 22.3% K%, and 11.9% SwStr%. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit over the last 30 days (18.3%), but his other numbers have remained rock steady including his above-average 11.7% SwStr%. The rookie righty’s bat-missing prowess will play well against an Orioles squad tied for the 10th highest strikeout rate (22.4%) against righties this season. They kick they’re whiffing up on the road with the seventh highest strikeout rate (24.1%). Faria and the Rays are -141 favorites.
Honorable Mentions
- Mike Clevinger (CLE): $9,400 vs. Angels
- Jordan Montgomery (NYY): $5,900 vs. Reds
Catcher
Wilson Ramos (TBR): $3,200 vs. Orioles
Ramos’ season got a late start after he opened the year on the disabled list. As a result, he only has 17 plate appearances against southpaws, but he’s made the count with a .353 OBP, .313 ISO, and 160 wRC+. While that’s a tiny sample, it comes on the heels of a huge year against lefties in which he ripped off a .377 OBP, .301 ISO, and 160 wRC+ against them. The backstop’s excellence against lefties pairs nicely with Wade Miley‘s ineptitude against right-handed batters. The southpaw has coughed up a .403 OBP, .501 SLG, and .387 wOBA to righties this season.
*Check on Ramos’ status since he exited yesterday’s game early after being struck in the head by a broken bat. He’s not listed in the honorable mentions, but if you wish to keep the rest of the roster intact without blowing it up to pay for one of the other catchers, consider James McCann (DET) at $3,000.
Honorable Mentions
- Gary Sanchez (NYY): $4,400 vs. Reds
- J.T. Realmuto (MIA): $3,300 @ Rangers
- Tyler Flowers (ATL): $3,300 @ Diamondbacks
First Base
Miguel Cabrera (DET) : $3,400 vs. Royals
Cabrera’s having a rough year, but he’s still been very good against lefties (.430 OBP and 137 wRC+). He’s a terror against lefties at Comerica Park with a .405 OBP, .211 ISO, and 146 wRC+ under those conditions since 2015. Danny Duffy‘s a talented pitcher with electric stuff, but he’s far from death on righties with a .345 OBP, .433 SLG, and .335 wOBA allowed to them this year.
Second Base
Daniel Murphy (WAS) : $4,700 vs. Brewers
The Daniel Murphy we know now started showing off his pop in August of 2015 with the Mets. He hit four homers that month and four more to wrap up the regular season before truly exploding in the postseason. Since August of 2015 (not including his postseason), he’s crushed righties for a .378 OBP, .257 ISO, and 151 wRC+. I’ll take that kind of hitter against all righties, but Murphy looks like a dreamy play against Zach Davies‘ .358 OBP, .493 SLG, and .361 wOBA allowed to lefties this season.
Third Base
Nick Castellanos (DET) : $3,600 vs. Royals
Castellanos has mashed against lefties in recent years. Since 2015, he’s totaled a .256 ISO, 124 wRC+, 26.3% LD%, and 41.1% Hard% against southpaws. The 25-year-old could be fully blossoming before our eyes with a .350 OBP, .277 ISO, and 140 wRC+ since June 1.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $3,700 @ Mariners
Bogaerts isn’t a terrifying matchup for right-handed pitchers on the road, but he’s turned into an average hitter under those conditions. He’s gradually gotten better against righties on the road, and since last year, he has a .333 OBP, .153 ISO, and 104 wRC+. I’ll gladly take those numbers at Bogaerts’ salary against Felix Hernandez‘s .471 SLG and .328 wOBA yielded to righties this year.
*Bogaerts is dealing with an illness and is considered day-to-day. If he’s out Tuesday, look to the honorable mentions listed below.
Honorable Mentions
- Zack Cozart (CIN): $4,600 @ Yankees
- Didi Gregorius (NYY): $4,300 vs. Reds
- Orlando Arcia (MIL): $3,300 @ Nationals
Outfield
Bryce Harper (WAS): $5,600 vs. Brewers
This roster’s outfield has two of the biggest thumpers in the game. Harper is one of those two, and since 2015, he owns a .440 OBP, .293 ISO, and 170 wRC+ against righties. Davies is no match for arguably the favorite to win this year’s National League MVP Award.
Eric Thames (MIL): $3,700 @ Nationals
It’s no secret Thames’ has cooled off since his monstrous first month of the year. Still, since May 1, he owns a .369 OBP, .254 ISO, and 120 wRC+ against righties. Want more recent? Fine. Since June 1, he has a .343 OBP, .267 ISO, and 116 wRC+ against righties. He’s a thorn in the side of righties, and Edwin Jackson is a fringe big-league righty at best. E-Jax has ceded a .333 OBP, .526 SLG, and .361 wOBA to the 21 lefties he’s faced this year. Last year, he yielded a .369 OBP, .418 SLG, and .342 wOBA to lefties. For the bulk of Jackson’s career, he’s been a punching bag for left-handed batters.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): $4,800 @ Rangers
Stanton’s hitting bombs in bunches this year, and he reached the seats for the 31st time this season in his first at-bat last night. He’s no stranger to ranking among the league leaders against lefties. The homer-hitting machine doesn’t have enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter since 2015, but among hitters with a minimum of 250 plate appearances against lefties in that time frame, he ranks 38th in OBP (.371), first in ISO (.382), and tied for fifth in wRC+ (162).
Honorable Mentions
- Adam Duvall (CIN): $4,700 @ Yankees
- Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $4,700 @ Phillies
- David Peralta (ARI): $4,500 vs. Braves
- Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,200 vs. Red Sox
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT): $4,200 @ Giants
- Justin Upton (DET): $4,100 vs. Royals
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