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Overvalued Players in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (Fantasy Football)

Overvalued Players in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues (Fantasy Football)

Let me start by pointing out that I’ve previously covered players to avoid drafting in DRAFT best ball leagues. I don’t dislike the following players as much as that group, and if they were to fall below their ADP, they’d be draftable. As it stands, though, the highlighted players in this piece are overvalued and poor selections at their ADP.

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Dez Bryant (WR – DAL) – 20.6
Bryant is an elite talent. There’s no doubt about that, but it takes more than that to warrant being selected inside the top 25. Top-25 picks pair elite talent with a heavy workload, and that’s where the problems start with Bryant.

The Cowboys ranked 30th in pass attempts and were one of only five teams to attempt under 500 passes (483 attempts) last year. The Cowboys leaned heavily on the running attack, and, frankly, why shouldn’t they have? Dallas ranked second in rushing yards and third in rushing yards per attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference.

Dallas’ offensive line is an elite unit, and Ezekiel Elliott performed like a stud earning the second best overall grade at running back Pro Football Focus (PFF), led running backs in DYAR, per Football Outsiders (FO), and was the leader in traditional stats such as rushing attempts and rushing yards. Perhaps the Cowboys loosen the reins on Dak Prescott in year two, but last year’s formula resulted in a 13-3 record and an NFC East crown, so why fix what’s not broken?

What did limiting Prescott’s pass attempts mean to Bryant last year? Well, it meant he reached double-digit targets just three times in 13 games played, and two of the three times he reached or bested 10 targets took place in his first four games played. Speaking of 13 games played, he missed three games last year with a slight hairline fracture in his right knee.

In 2015, he missed seven games with a broken bone in his foot that eventually resulted in needing surgery. That’s 10 missed games the last two years due to injuries.

Bryant’s an elite touchdown scorer with eight scored in 13 games last year and 67 in 97 games played in his career. His ability to reach the end zone regularly will result in some big weeks, but the lack of targets leaves me wanting more from a second-round pick at a deep position.

Todd Gurley (RB – LAR) – 23.3
Gurley’s first two seasons are like night and day. In his rookie campaign, Gurley ranked third in rushing yards (1,106), tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (10), and tied for eighth in yards per rushing attempt (4.8). The advanced metrics liked his work, too.

He ranked fourth in DYAR (170) and ninth in DVOA (10.0%), according to FO. He looked nearly like an unstoppable force even when defenses geared up to stop him. Sharp Football Stats indicates running backs faced a league average of 7.7 men in the box.

In 2016, Gurley ripped off 5.4 yards per carry against seven men in the box and 4.0 yards per carry against eight men in the box, per Sharp Football Stats. Last year, he fell to 3.4 yards per carry against seven men in the box and 2.1 yards per carry against eight men in the box.

Yikes, that’s a precipitous fall. That’s merely the tip of the iceberg, though.

Out of 42 qualified running backs in 2016, Gurley ranked 37th in DYAR (-66) and DVOA (-14.4%). PFF ranked him 53rd at running back in Overall grade and 52nd in Run grade. Gurley was the focal point of opposing defenses, and that’s likely the product of terrible quarterback play. Rookie Jared Goff was completely overwhelmed, and out of 34 qualified quarterbacks, he ranked dead last in DYAR (-881), DVOA (-74.8), and QBR (22.2).

Case Keenum was horrible, too. Rookie head coach Sean McVay is tasked with righting the ship after serving as Washington’s offensive coordinator from 2014-2016. I’m not optimistic he’ll turn the offense around overnight. Thus, I’m not optimistic about Gurley turning the clock back to his rookie season production level, either.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) – 37.6
I’ll address the elephant in the room. Yes, I’ve seen the video of Mixon punching and knocking a woman out. His inclusion in this piece and the focus of his write up is entirely related to his play on the field, and I am going to offer no further commentary on the aforementioned video.

Turning attention back to the field, Mixon has a ton of talent and upside. He’s also a rookie running back who’s tasked with learning the many nuances of the position. Matt Harmon of NFL.com recently tweeted that Mixon’s goal line and pass-catching work are in doubt, and those things shouldn’t be in doubt for a player selected in the top 40 picks.

Jeremy Hill is still in the backfield and was the club’s 2014 second-round pick. Hill had a strong rookie season but has gone backward since. Still, he’s plunged into the end zone 29 times on the ground in 47 games played including nine touchdown rushes last year.

He’s a big, bruising back who still poses a threat to Mixon’s goal-line work. Giovani Bernard also remains in the mix. He tore his ACL in Week 11 last year, but he’s already practicing.

A healthy Bernard is an asset as a pass catcher and ranked 13th among backs in PFF Receiving grade last year. He also ranked 10th out of 53 running backs in receiving DYAR (101) and seventh in receiving DVOA (22.4%).

It’s unlikely he’ll be completely cut out of the backfield mix. There are too many questions surrounding Mixon’s role and usage to spend a top-40 pick on him.

Jarvis Landry (WR – MIA) – 46.4
Landry’s ADP will plummet if Ryan Tannehill‘s knee injury ends the quarterback’s season. However, it could rebound depending upon how the Dolphins address the position. Landry is a player I was avoiding before the Tannehill injury, though.

He seems to be one of those players who might be better in standard leagues than DRAFT best ball leagues. Having said that, I’m down on him across all fantasy formats. The three-year vet has scored 14 touchdowns from scrimmage and added one in the return game in 48 games played.

Last year’s four scores represented a career-low total. The light touchdown output already caps his ceiling, but in 2015, he helped offset modest touchdown contributions by reeling 110 passes for 1,157 yards receiving on 166 targets. Last year, his target total dropped significantly to 131, and his receptions followed dropping to 94.

A big part of the reason for the fall was the emergence of Jay Ajayi and the running game. Landry reached or exceeded 10 targets six times last year, and four of those times came in the first four weeks of the season. Ajayi received more than 10 carries for the first time in Week 4 last year rushing for 42 yards and a score on 13 carries.

Then, he rushed for 200-plus yards in back-to-back games and carried the ball 16 or more times in 10 of 11 games down the stretch. With Ajayi out in the season finale, Landry reverted to his pre-Ajayi-emergence self with a 9-76-1 line on 12 targets.

The new version of Landry as a complementary piece in a run-first offense looks like a fringe top-100 caliber option, but he’s being picked inside the top 50. He’s an easy guy fade.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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