Under most circumstances, every fantasy-relevant player is draftable if they fall far enough. The following group of players are more than merely overrated, though. Sure, some of them could be draftable if they fell a round or two beyond their ADP, but that’s not realistic to expect, and with that being the case, they’re players who won’t be on my roster for a variety of reasons.
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Quarterback
Cam Newton (CAR) – 93.7
Newton’s just a season removed from winning the 2015 NFL MVP for a monster season in which he passed for 3,837 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions while rumbling for 636 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Oh what a difference one year makes. Newton’s completion percentage bottomed out at a career-low 52.9% along with other lows such as 6.9 yards gained per pass attempt (Y/A) and 6.4 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference. The 14 interceptions he threw were his most since throwing 17 in his rookie season, and he set a new low with 359 yards rushing and 4.0 yards per attempt (Y/A) while tying a previous season-low of five rushing touchdowns previously set in 2014.
Newton required off-season surgery for a partially torn rotator cuff. It was reported in early June by David Newton of ESPN that Newton was ahead of schedule, and he recently threw for onlookers at training camp. Barring a setback, he should be fine for the regular season, so that’s not why I’m avoiding him. The surgery could provide head coach Ron Rivera incentive to ask Newton to dial back his running, and it could cause him to call fewer designed runs. Why risk injury to your star quarterback with a talented backfield featuring Jonathan Stewart and do-it-all rookie Christian McCaffrey? The club also drafted Curtis Samuel, and he could be used much like Percy Harvin was when healthy given his experience as a runner and pass catcher in college, adding yet another threat for red-zone work. The addition of McCaffrey and Samuel is a bonus for the offense as a whole and for Newton’s passing outlook, but if last year represents the new norm for Newton on the ground, there’s no way he’s worth a top-100 pick. Also, that’s saying nothing about the need for him to bounce back as a passer following a dreadful year through the air and surgery on his throwing shoulder. The 2015 MVP season looks like the clear outlier, and Newton’s weekly ceiling doesn’t appear to be that much higher than that of fellow running quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who carries an ADP of 124.8.
Running Back
Eddie Lacy (SEA) – 76.3
The Seahawks backfield is crowded. C.J. Prosise (115.2) actually has the safest role in the backfield. The 90th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft is poised to serve as the pass-catching back in the offense. Injuries proved a problem for him in his rookie season, but in his six games played, he reeled in 17 of 19 targets for 208 yards. He also demonstrated his explosiveness as a runner with 172 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. The second-year back is likely to get some work as a rusher, and if he proves he can hold up, he could command a larger piece of the pie as a ball carrier than he’s currently projected. Even in a perfect world for Lacy’s fantasy outlook in which Prosise battles injuries and is only used as a pass catcher, that still leaves Thomas Rawls.
Rawls was awful in his sophomore campaign averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per attempt while rushing for 349 yards on 109 carries. In his rookie season, however, he was a stud rushing for 830 yards at 5.6 yards per attempt. Football Outsiders (FO) credited Rawls with leading backs with 216 DYAR, and he ranked second among qualified backs in DVOA (26.4%). The back Rawls was in 2015 is better by DYAR and DVOA than Lacy has been in any of his seasons in the NFL, so a resurgent Rawls would likely be the best back in the backfield. To be fair, that Rawls may never resurface, as his 2015 rookie season was ended early due to a fractured ankle and ligament damage.
Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times speculated in late June that if all parties are healthy in the backfield, “Lacy and Rawls take a fairly equal share of basedown carries with Prosise slated largely for a third-down role as well as being worked into the gameplan to take advantage of specific matchups from week to week.” If Rawls is the shell of his 2015 self that we saw last year, Lacy could serve as a two-down back who also gets goal-line work, and that might be enough to hit value at his ADP, but that’s probably his ceiling. Still, even if everything breaks right for Lacy, Seattle had one of the worst run-blocking lines in 2016 and didn’t do enough in the offseason to provide me optimism they’ll be any better than average as a run-blocking unit at the absolute best this year.
Paul Perkins (NYG) – 78.2
Perkins had a rather forgettable rookie season. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked him 35th overall at running back, and he ranked 26th in DYAR (12) and 29th in DVOA (-6.0%), per FO. He graded out poorly at PFF as a receiver, but a healthy Shane Vereen should be leaned on as the receiving back for the Giants anyway. The team also added Wayne Gallman with a fourth-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Perkins has already been declared the starter, but Gallman adds competition should Perkins falter. The Clemson rookie also looks the part of a goal-line vulture at six-foot tall and 210 pounds. He’s a powerful runner who averaged 3.5 yards per carry after contact, according to Dan Schneier of PFF. I’ll pass on Perkins.
Wide Receiver
Allen Robinson (JAX) – 35.9
A-Rob was a stud in 2015 catching 80 of 151 targets for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He face planted last year with 73 receptions on 151 targets for 883 yards and six touchdowns. The wide out’s nosedive coincided with Blake Bortles going backward in his development. Robinson’s ADP hardly reflects his rough 2016, and making matters worse, his volume should take a sizable hit with the addition of Leonard Fournette with the fourth pick in this year’s NFL Draft. The Jaguars intend to shift gears to a run-oriented offense with their new offensive weapon. There are too many checks in the cons column to draft A-Rob as a WR1 or WR2 with a top-40 pick.
Julian Edelman (NE) – 45.3
Edelman is a far better player in standard leagues than in DRAFT best-ball formats. He’s bested 1,000 yards receiving just two times, and he’s caught more than five touchdowns just twice, too. His single-season highs of 105 receptions, 1,106 yards, and seven touchdowns don’t scream high ceiling week to week, and he’ll have further competition for targets with the addition of explosive receiver Brandin Cooks. He should be rock steady as a possession receiving target for Tom Brady, but I’d rather grab volatile wide outs with higher ceilings than spend a top-50 pick on a high-floor guy like Edelman.
Brandon Marshall (NYG) – 71.6
Marshall’s no longer a No. 1 receiver joining Odell Beckham Jr. with the Giants, and that already takes a bite out of his upside. Making matters worse, he’s coming off a woeful campaign in which he ranked 80th out of 93 qualified receivers in DYAR (-33) and 78th in DVOA (-15.8%). PFF ranked him 66th overall at wide receiver last season, too. He was very good in 2015, so a bounce back is possible, and upgrading at quarterback will help. Speaking of quarterback, though, Eli Manning ranked 26th at quarterback at PFF in 2016. FO wasn’t much more impressed with his work as Manning ranked 20th in DYAR (192), 20th in DVOA (-6.5%), and 27th in QBR (52.2). The traditional stats aren’t impressive, either. Manning ranked 13th in passing yards (4,027), 17th in passing yards per game (252), tied for 25th in passing yards per attempt (6.73), and tied for 10th in touchdown passes (26). No thanks on a No. 2 receiver on a team with a stud No. 1 receiver and a declining quarterback.
Tight End
Jason Witten (DAL) – 134.5
Witten is a prime example of the difference between drafting in standard leagues and in DRAFT leagues. He’ll rarely give you bagel, but he’ll also rarely blow past his 2016 per-game averages of 4.3 receptions and 42.1 receiving yards. The veteran tight end is a non-threat to score touchdowns with just six split three and three over the last two years and 32 games played. He scored eight touchdowns in 2013, but that’s the only time he’s bested five touchdown grabs since 2011. Witten’s 673 yards receiving last year were his lowest since his rookie season back in 2003, and he’s reached triple-digit receiving yards in a game just one time in the last three years. Lowering the threshold to just 75 yards receiving, Witten hit or bested that mark just once last year and failed to do so at all in 2015 after doing so just once in 2014. There’s no reason to waste a roster spot on him. If you’re desperate for a tight end in the range Witten is going, turn instead to Austin Hooper (140.1), Julius Thomas (148.4), Jared Cook (148.6), O.J. Howard (154.5), Cameron Brate (154.7), or C.J. Fiedorowicz (158.8). If you miss on that wave of tight ends with a similar ADP to Witten, you can always pick Antonio Gates (163.3) or Jesse James (190.7). I don’t see much separation between them and Witten despite the gap in ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
