When evaluating fantasy football prospects, rankings and mock drafts can only take you so far. Getting a chance to watch actual NFL games can open a valuable window into team structure, player opportunity, and on-the-field performance. Of course, this is still the preseason and every highlight and hot take should be taken with a large grain of salt. But somewhere among all of that salt lie a few golden nuggets of fantasy knowledge. With that in mind, let’s go mining through Week 1.
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Duke Johnson AND Isaiah Crowell on Passing Plays
What am I looking at, Matt? A little out route from Duke Johnson? The fantasy factor here is how Cleveland is using their running backs in passing situations. Reports out of camp have suggested that Johnson could potentially see a lot of work out of the slot, and the first preseason game confirmed this. Here, on first-and-16, Johnson picked up nine yards out of the slot with Crowell in the backfield. The Browns’ first team saw six third downs. Johnson was on the field for all of them, but Crowell was also in on four of them and on a fourth-down attempt from the three-yard line. In the end, this could be good news for both backs as they’ll both see the field more often. Don’t sleep on Duke as a PPR value.
Kelvin Benjamin Playing Hard
If you’ve seen any highlights from the preseason so far, you probably saw Kelvin Benjamin‘s incredible touchdown catch. This clip says as much or more about Benjamin’s potential in 2017. Benjamin is a post-hype sleeper after a down year where he was labeled as lazy and sluggish – not to mention the infamous weight he carried into OTAs. To see him running this hard and tough in the preseason is huge (no pun intended). Heck, it took J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney to bring him down! Remember, this is a first-round draft pick who was the WR17 in his rookie season. If he returns to form this year, Benjamin could leap from the back of the fifth round to WR1 status.
Deshaun Watson’s Fantasy Legs
Don’t overhype the preseason. Don’t overhype the preseason. Don’t overhype – ah, forget it, Deshaun Watson is the new Russell Wilson. Okay, that may be a bit much … Watson hasn’t even won the starting job yet. But he should. And if he does, it’s not like he’ll be leading the Browns or the Bears. The Texans have a stellar defense and solid weapons on offense. Wilson was a QB1 in his rookie season on the value of his legs, and we know Watson can run – see above. Unconvinced? How about 1,105 yards and 12 TDs on the ground in his sophomore year? While he shouldn’t be drafted as a QB1, Watson is an excellent stash in 2QB leagues and will be worth drafting as a backup in standard formats if he gets the job. And if you’re playing dynasty, he’s easily the best rookie option for a win-now team.
Jeremy Hill vs. The Mixon Hype
Yes, Mixon’s yards per attempt look better in the box score than Jeremy Hill‘s. But the majority of Mixon’s work came after the first-team squads had hit the bench. And Hill actually looked good with his early carries. Except for one play where he was swallowed in the backfield by an unblocked defender, Hill was churning downfield and making nifty cuts. Mixon is a better back, don’t get me wrong. But until Hill gives Marvin Lewis an unavoidable excuse to start the rookie, fantasy owners may be frustrated by a relatively even time share. Hill will almost certainly steal goal line touches, and Giovani Bernard will also siphon passing down snaps from Mixon. Beware of the rookie hype, folks.
Kenny Golladay: Best Rookie WR for Fantasy?
In this year’s NFL Draft, 12 wide receivers were picked before the Detroit Lions took Kenny Golladay at 96th overall. It’s possible that Golladay should be taken first of that class in 2017 fantasy drafts. Golladay finished his first preseason game with three catches for 53 yards and two touchdowns, including this impressive snag. But the highlight hype is actually secondary to a more stable fantasy gold mine: opportunity. With the loss of Anquan Boldin and his eight TDs, Matthew Stafford will be looking for a trustworthy and dominant option inside the 20-yard line. At 6’4″/218, Golladay could stake a claim as the top red zone threat in Detroit. Moreover, neither Golden Tate nor Marvin Jones is an elite No. 1 receiver, so if Golladay continues his impressive showing, it’s possible he could quickly become one of the top options on the team in general. On this trajectory, Golladay has very attractive upside as a late-round flier.
Montgomery Losing His Grip on Ball – and Job?
Take a gander at my bold prediction for the Packers and you’ll have an idea where this is going. Ty Montgomery had three carries in preseason Week 1 and lost this fumble on the second. The converted WR will already be under scrutiny heading into his first full season as a running back. A lack of ball security is not going to help his odds for success or his standing on the Green Bay depth chart. Montgomery had two fumbles on 121 touches last year. Michael Cohen of PackersNews.com said after the game, “I think it’s going to be a legitimate problem with him. Even when he was playing full-time receiver he had ball security issues.” Meanwhile, fourth-round rookie Jamaal Williams has impressed in camp and began taking first-team reps. Montgomery carries huge risk-reward status in fantasy drafts, as he could quickly lose his grip on the starting job.
Are We Overlooking Terrance West?
If that was Ameer Abdullah or Dalvin Cook, the fantasy community would be drooling like a bulldog in a butcher’s shop. Instead, it’s Terrance West, a former Brown who only sits atop the Ravens depth chart because of a season-ending injury to Kenneth Dixon. Accordingly, no one cares. I’ll admit, a level of disinterest in the 5′ 9″ West – who profiles somewhere between Trent Richardson and Toby Gerhart – is fair and acceptable. But West is currently the RB38 in consensus ADP. As the lead back in a decent offense, his floor is higher than that. And if those runs against the Redskins are any indication, his ceiling could be much higher. Don’t take him as an RB1 on the merit of two strong runs, but don’t let an opponent snatch him early in your draft either.
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Matt Okada is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @FantasySensei.
