DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 3
Week 3 is upon us, and although I’m still not a DraftKings millionaire, the DraftKings value plays for Week 2 went pretty well. J.J Nelson and Ty Montgomery made for strong plays while Carson Palmer threw for over 300 yards. However, Cameron Brate and Rams D/ST were rather underwhelming. It’s Week 3 now though, and that means there’s another chance to become a DraftKings millionaire. Here are my top DraftKings value plays for Week 3.
Trevor Siemian (DEN): $5,500 @ BUF
Trevor Siemian is the second-highest scoring quarterback so far in the 2017 NFL season, and while that’s unlikely to be the case at the end of the season, he is still far too underpriced. In fact, I don’t think we will see Siemian’s value reach its appropriate price point until his Week 5 bye. Keep in mind that Siemian is still priced $100 less than Jimmy Garoppolo.
The match-up with the Bills doesn’t seem prime on paper as the Bills defense has performed surprisingly well this season despite the loss of key starters on defense this off-season. However, they have also gone up against the Jets and ‘Downtown’ Josh McCown in Week 1 and Cam Newton, who couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean from the beach right now, in Week 2. Siemian’s price should rise above $6K before long, and I will be looking to ride him until it does.
Derrick Henry (TEN): $5,300 @ BUF
This really isn’t brain surgery. As of right now, there seems to be a real possibility that DeMarco Murray is forced to sit out Sunday’s tilt with the Seahawks which would make Derrick Henry about as must-play as it gets. The Seahawks run defense isn’t nearly what it used to be as they have already let up big games to Ty Montgomery and Carlos Hyde. Even if Murray does play, Henry will be a viable option at a much lower ownership percentage as Murray’s effectiveness is seriously in question right now.
Ameer Abdullah (DET): v. ATL
There’s a chance that this could be Ameer Abdullah’s breakout game. He ran the ball well last Monday night against a tough Giants run defense as he took it 17 times for 86 yards. The 2-0 Falcons currently rank 30th in DVOA against the run and have allowed Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, and Ty Montgomery to all have solid games. Look for the Lions to make it an effort to control the clock and keep the Falcons high-powered offense off the field.
Rashard Higgins (CLE): $4,000 @ IND
Higgins has emerged as the No. 1 option for the Browns passing attack due to Corey Coleman‘s broken hand and Kenny Britt‘s lack of wanting to play football. Higgins brought in seven catches for 95 yards in the Browns Week 2 loss to the Ravens and gets a plus matchup with the Colts secondary that ranks 27th against the pass. Higgins is going to be a chalk play across the industry but has a good chance to provide great value as rookie Deshone Kizer’s first option.
Marvin Jones (DET): $4,200 v. ATL
Atlanta hasn’t only been weak against the run, but against the pass as well. Marvin Jones Jr. has touchdowns in back-to-back games despite only three receptions and enters the match-up with Atlanta as the third lowest-priced Lions wide receiver. The Falcons have a below average DVOA against No. 2 WRs this season and the game itself has the second-highest over/under on the slate at 51 points. Jones is as inconsistent as it gets, but has big game potential and will be lightly owned. Consider him a high risk, high reward option.
Jack Doyle (IND): $3,600 v. CLE
Doyle didn’t do much with Scott Tolzien at quarterback in Week 1, but the change to Jacoby Brissett in Week 2 did wonders as he caught eight balls for 79 yards. Doyle gets a dream matchup against the Browns who have let up big games to both Jesse James and Ben Watson so far. Fire up Doyle while his price is still bottom-barrel.
Eagles D/ST (PHI): $3,000 @ NYG
The Giants have been a great matchup for opposing defenses so far, and the Eagles defense has the playmaking ability to take advantage of that. The Giants will presumably have Odell Beckham Jr. back at full capacity, but with no run game to speak of, the Giants should still be a good matchup for opposing defenses due to their vulnerability to the sack (eight times in the first two games).
The Eagles have had two difficult match-ups with the Chiefs and the Redskins so far, but have still averaged 13 points per game thanks to eight sacks and a defensive touchdown. Look for the Eagles defense to put the pressure on Eli Manning in their home opener on Sunday.
Best of luck in Week 3!