Week 4 went much better than Week 3 which is saying very little. However, it was still a mixed bag with Deshaun Watson, Lamar Miller, and Lions D/ST providing great value while Marqise Lee, Martavis Bryant, and Javorius Allen left much to be desired. It was a step in the right direction, though, so Week 5 should be even better (that logic makes sense in my head).
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Quarterback
Joe Flacco (BAL): $4,700 @ OAK
I’m going to post a disclaimer that I think it is a mistake to go with a “value” play at the quarterback position this week — Rodgers, Wilson, or Prescott should be in your lineup. However, if forced to choose, I’ll take my chances on a bounce-back performance from Joe Flacco against an Oakland pass defense that has allowed the 4th most points to quarterbacks this season.
Flacco is the second-lowest priced QB on the slate — the same price as Matt Cassel and Bengals back-up A.J. McCarron — and dropped back 49 times last game, albeit a very inefficient 49 times. Flacco has been terrible by his own admission (and by the admission of others as well) as he has scored less than 12 points in three out of four games this season which includes an Osweilerian -0.9 points against the Londonville Jaguars two weeks ago. He’s due for a “value” performance against Oakland in Week 5.
Running Backs
Duke Johnson Jr. (CLE): $4,900 v. NYJ
Duke Johnson Jr. gets the plus match-up with the Jets and — unlike Isaiah Crowell — is actually doing something when he touches the ball. Johnson is the only running back in the NFL averaging more than nine touches per game and more than 1.5 points per touch. With Crowell struggling, look for the Browns to get Johnson even more involved.
Frank Gore (IND): $4,400 v. SF
I have a strict rule to take starting running backs against the San Francisco 49ers for under $5K unless their name is Chris Johnson. I can confirm that Frank Gore’s name is not Chris Johnson.
Wide Receivers
Ricardo Louis (CLE): $3,700 v. NYJ
It’s tough to plug any Browns WR into your lineup at this point, especially after Rashard Higgins completely burned DFS players a couple weeks ago. However, Ricardo Louis is averaging 7.5 targets per game since Corey Coleman‘s injury and gets a vulnerable Jets pass defense. Also helping Louis’ case is that head coach Hue Jackson just flat out stated earlier this week that default No. 1 WR Kenny Britt would have been benched by now if not for injuries.
The rookie out of Auburn was a combine marvel despite falling to the fourth round, and while combine results are often overvalued, it does indicate that the physical tools are there for Louis.
Also, bonus points for being a starting wideout on the “Miles Austin All-Stars” (Louis Ricardo really sounds better than Ricardo Louis).
Jeremy Maclin (BAL): $4,200 @ OAK
Well, if you’re going to go cheap and take Joe Flacco then you’re probably going to want to go cheap and pair a WR with him. Jeremy Maclin satisfies those conditions as the most heavily targeted Ravens’ pass catcher thus far. He’s also not Mike Wallace who I refuse to take in any situation ever.
Tight End
Jesse James (PIT): $3,000 v. JAC
Not the outlaw or Eric Decker‘s wife, but the tight end who seems to go off about once every four games or so. James is the lowest priced TE on the slate averaging at least five targets per game and two points per reception.
I’ve also been told that Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback at home which bodes well for James.
Defense/Special Teams
Eagles D/ST (PHI): $3,100 v. ARI
I’m not exactly sure what the maximum price is for a “value defense,” but the Eagles aren’t priced among the top five defenses so I’m taking them.
The Eagles are the only defense with a top 10 match-up (Cardinals are allowing the 10th most points to opposing defenses) that also have a projected team total of more than 25 points. That sounds like a perfect opportunity for a patented Carson Palmer pick-six. Oh yeah, and did I mention that Carson Palmer is traveling from the West Coast to the East coast for an early start time? Fire up Philly.
Good luck in Week 5!
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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.
