It’s time to start exploring trades and that’s always the case around this time of year as players are still slumping from the get-go or continuing their hot starts from spring ball. In both scenarios, there are buy-low and sell-high opportunities. Trading can be difficult early on, especially when the parties involved may still have those early investment attachment issues. I mean nobody really wants to get rid of Ozzie Albies, but it’s your job, and ours, to do our best to win at fantasy baseball and that means taking advantage of the current time and player values.
To make sure that happens, we asked our featured experts below which players they’re targeting to make moves on (whether buying or selling) and equally important, what it would take to make that trade happen.
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Q1. What one player are you trying to buy low and what type of player would you give up to get him?
Carlos Santana (1B/OF – PHI)
“Santana is a player I’m trying to buy before he breaks out of his slow start. If you look at some of his underlying numbers, he has been very unlucky up to this point. His contact rate, hard hit rate, and launch angle all indicate that he should have much more success than he has had thus far. A few of names I’d try selling for Santana are Mike Moustakas. Matt Chapman and Javier Baez. All three players have started out well, but are likely over-performing thus far.”
– Jason Johnson (Understanding Fantasy Baseball)
Edwin Encarnacion (1B/DH – CLE)
“I’m not necessarily trying to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, but that’s only because I own him everywhere. Trying to acquire Encarnacion right now, even at a reduced price, is not without risk. He’s at an age (35) where he could easily fall off a cliff, and he’s batting at a historically awful pace. But he looked absolutely done last April (.200/.343/.353) and the April before that (.250/.298/.396) and the April before that (.205/.258/.352), before rebounding to have his typical season. I’d look to flip him for an Eric Hosmer/Miguel Cabrera type, but would have no problem giving up someone like Marcell Ozuna, Lorenzo Cain, or Tommy Pham.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
Robbie Ray (SP – ARI)
“Ray is someone that has drawn undue skepticism, despite a strong 2017 and a top-10 SP finish. ERA and WHIP are easily inflated by a bad start or two, so he could have owners nervous and ready to deal him prematurely. His elite K-rate is still high, while his 5.82 BB/9 and 23.8% HR/FB% are due for regression. I’d deal an overachieving young SP like Dylan Bundy or Blake Snell because their command issues are similar to Ray’s, but just haven’t cropped up yet this season.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)
Ryan Zimmerman (1B – WSH)
“I am buying up all the shares I can get of Ryan Zimmerman right now. Sure, he is batting just .111 with 1 homer and a .410 OPS, but his batted ball metrics are through the roof. Last year, when he batted .303 with 36 HRs and a 931 OPS, his average exit velocity (3rd in baseball), fly ball rate, line drive rate and hard-hit rate were all lower than they are right now. To say it more simply, he is crushing the baseball and eventually that will turn into fantasy production.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
Kenley Jansen (RP – LAD)
“I can’t speak to how he is being treated in your league, but I know of several greedy owners who are ready and already offering Kenley Jansen up on the cheap. His start has been well publicized as slow, and it has been. But his manager just gave him a vote of confidence, the Dodgers should offer plenty of wins and save chances, and Closer is a woefully thin position of any confidence. Jansen has been arguably the best reliever in baseball, having averaged 43 Saves in each of the past four seasons. If you can get him for cheap now… POUNCE! Players to try to use to pry could include Chris Stratton, Jake Junis, Johnny Cueto, Tanner Roark, DJ LeMahieu, AJ Pollock.”
– Andy Singleton (Fantrax)
Q2. What one player are you trying to sell high right now and who would you want in return?
Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL)
“I’d look to move Ozzie Albies if I could right now, as he’s the perfect combination of prospect pedigree plus over-performance for a sell-high candidate. Albies has a bright future, but his five home runs and nearly 1.000 OPS may have some believing he’s something he isn’t. He’s walking just 2.5% of the time and has a 19.2% HR/FB rate. Albies should be valuable, but there are obviously many owners who are starting to buy into him as a true fantasy stud. I’d gladly flip him for other similarly-ranked second basemen (Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano) or under-performing or injured players like Wil Myers, Miguel Sano, or Anthony Rendon.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
“Difficult as it is to say, Ozzie Albies. He’s not going to hit 30 HRs, so let’s get that out of the way. He never even reached 10 in the minors and is simply having a Panik-like start to the season. He’s stolen just one base so far and is unlikely to reach 20 this season, which leaves you with a high average and run-scoring totals, but not an elite five-cat producer like people think he’ll be. I’d offer him for Xander Bogaerts who should be back off the DL soon and could compete for a batting title while hitting 20+ HR and stealing as many bags as Albies.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)
“I expect to lose some friends over this, but I’m selling on Ozzie Albies. It isn’t as though I don’t buy Albies as a breakout player or eventual perennial all-star. I absolutely do, but that doesn’t mean he is worth what you can currently get for him on the trade market in your fantasy leagues. He is practically fetching the same return as a player like Carlos Correa, and while I wouldn’t even consider dealing either in a dynasty league, that is an absurd value for a 21-year-old that weighs 160 pounds. He might end up hitting .295 with 20 HRs this year, but if you are expecting him to compete for the MVP like he is doing now, then you are in for a rough awakening.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)
Gerrit Cole (SP – HOU)
“Cole is a player I would be trying to sell. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cole and expect a strong season from him, it just seems like the hot start coupled with recent hype is driving his value through the roof. A 15+ K/9 is unsustainable for a starter, and I do expect a few AL teams to hit him as the season progresses. He will get his wins on the Astros and should have a good year, but I think Cole owners could get a nice return if they sell soon. A struggling Kenley Jansen or even Zack Greinke could be nice targets in trades before their value returns to normal.”
– Jason Johnson (Understanding Fantasy Baseball)
Matt Chapman (3B – OAK)
“Without the benefit of knowing how high or low of players we’re talking about, my sell high would be Matt Chapman. This isn’t to say I don’t like Chapman, or wouldn’t want him on my team, but he was being drafted in the 20’s at his position (250’s overall) and has gotten off to a roaring Top 10 Third Baseman start. The power is definitely real, but he is much closer to a .250 hitter than the one currently flirting with .300. If you can get someone to pay up for him, I’d have no qualms dangling him right now, as the averages are sure to come down. Some guys to possibly move, or package would include Joey Votto, Michael Conforto, Edwin Encarnacion, Ian Happ, and Wilson Contreras.”
– Andy Singleton (Fantrax)
Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for all the latest discussions this season.
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