Late round value. When it comes to redraft fantasy football leagues, many times leagues are won and lost by the late-round picks. Whether you’re looking at wide receivers, running backs, or tight ends, you can find some excellent value and upside towards the end of your fantasy drafts. When you see other teams start taking their second quarterback or grabbing a backup tight end in the later rounds, this is the time where you can capitalize and grab some nice value picks while your opponents don’t think there is anyone left. In your home leagues or even competitive leagues, you may even see some owners grab the Jacksonville Jaguars defense or even Stephen Gostkowski in the later rounds. Don’t fall into this trap. Stick to the script and grab as much value as you can, there will always be a kicker or defense that you can grab late like the Los Angeles Chargers or Greg Zuerlein, who could end up being just as valuable. Hopefully, your league no longer uses kickers or defense, if not, wait until the last two rounds to grab your kicker and defense. PPR leagues have some great late-round options that you can stash, and I’ll give you some of my favorite ones to target.
For this article, I’m using the current FantasyPros ADP based on the Draft Simulator tool. 12-team, PPR scoring.
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Running Backs
Carlos Hyde – RB39
Hyde is heading into this draft for the Cleveland Browns as the 39th running back off the board. While this backfield is shaping up to be fairly crowded with rookie Nick Chubb and pass-catching back Duke Johnson, I believe Hyde currently offers the most return on investment at his current price. The Browns signed Hyde to a three-year deal, making him an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season. However, he has a potential out after 2018, leaving the Browns with roughly two million in dead cap. I fully expect Hyde to be the featured back this year, and the Browns to move on from him after the 2018 season. While Johnson will see a nice amount of value in PPR leagues, he is the 29th RB off the board, and I believe Hyde has more upside even in PPR leagues, not to mention you can grab him a round or two later.
Both Johnson and Chubb should be fine options for fantasy in 2018, but Hyde should see the bulk of the carries. I’d expect him to get between 200 and 250 carries on the year, the Browns should just run him into the ground, and allow Chubb to develop. Chubb is a very talented back and lost a bit of his draft stock due to his landing spot, but I believe Johnson and Chubb will be a very solid one-two punch after 2018. There is a chance that Chubb will get involved in the offense about halfway through the season or so, but I’m not crazy about grabbing him this year. Hyde as the 39th running back off the board with RB2 upside is a nice value pick.
Giovani Bernard – RB42
For the past few seasons, Bernard has been a guy that I can’t pass up on in later rounds of PPR drafts. There was even a time when Bernard was looked at as potentially the future lead back for the Bengals, but the rookie season out of Jeremy Hill changed that quickly. There has been a fair amount of hype with that backfield, and the second year running back, Joe Mixon, finally looks like the guy to take the lead and become the guy for Cincinnati. Hill is now headed to New England, which leaves this backfield open for the taking for Mixon. On the flipside, the departure of Hill also opens things up a bit for Bernard to be that change of pass and pass-catching back, offering nice upside in the late rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Since entering the league in 2013, Bernard has averaged double-digit fantasy points on a per game basis in PPR leagues in every year except for one. In 2017 he averaged 9.5 PPR points per game, which was the lowest of his career, but it was also the first time that the backfield had three backs splitting the carries. Hill surprisingly has surpassed 200 carries in every year since entering the league in 2014, except for 2017. He played in just seven games last year thanks to injuries. I fully expect Bernard to get the bulk of the pass-catching work and to once again, average double-digit fantasy points. As the 42nd back off the board, he’s someone I love grabbing late and having him as a fill-in for my flex spot. Not to mention, if anything were to happen to Mixon, he’d slide into that role fairly smoothly.
PPR points per game
2013: 14.1
2014: 14.5
2015: 11.3
2016: 12.4
2017: 9.5
Corey Clement – RB49
When you’re getting this late in the draft, there are some picks you can get that have some nice upside. Not only does Clement offer good PPR value, but I believe he has some nice upside this year as well. The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in football and have a starting running back that I have little faith in. There are many fantasy owners who believe Jay Ajayi will breakout this year, but I’m not one of them. I was an advocate for selling Ajayi while he was in Miami coming off his few huge games, and that remains true after he went to the Eagles. He is currently the 20th running back off the board, and his risk is far too high for me to invest that early of a pick on him. Between his knee concerns and his lack of value in the passing game, I’d much rather take a late round flyer on Clement.
After showing up in the playoffs last year, Clement made a name for himself and showed the Eagles that he is a weapon they need to utilize more. Although Darren Sproles will be returning for his final season in 2018, I don’t expect him to get near the utilization that he has in the past. Clement is an explosive weapon that I believe sizes up similarly to Sproles, and the Eagles will be giving him more touches this year. I expect to have a Duke Johnson type of role in that offense, and potentially even more if anything were to happen to Ajayi.
Other Late Round RBs to Target:
Chris Ivory, Doug Martin, and Nyheim Hines
Wide Receivers
Randall Cobb – WR38
The first wide receiver that I’m targetting later in drafts is Cobb. He’s currently the 38th wide receiver off the board, and in PPR formats, he should easily out-perform that ADP. Since 2012, Cobb has averaged double-digit PPR fantasy points per game every year. With the departure of Jordy Nelson to Oakland and the return of a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Cobb should revert to his value he’s had in prior years. He’s flown under the radar a bit after finishing as WR35 in 2017, although he was still worth a flex spot. In the seasons that both Cobb and Rodgers have been healthy, Cobb has finished as WR6, WR19, and WR31. In 2018, I fully expect Cobb to be a WR3 with a safe floor and WR2 upside.
A couple of the biggest threats to Cobb this year are the breakout receiver, Davante Adams and the newest addition at the tight end position, Jimmy Graham. Many owners are expecting Graham to be a nice red-zone threat for the Packers this year, which is very possible, but the Packers don’t have a good history of utilizing the tight end position. Adams has broken out as a stud receiver in the league, and I expect him to become that new WR1 for Rodgers, with some huge upside. Being opposite of Adams should bode well for Cobb, and playing out of the slot, he will catch a good number of passes and offer owners a nice safe floor this year.
Kenny Stills – WR46
One of the determining factors that I use when searching for some deeper names to target in fantasy, is available targets. Teams that lose a fair amount of players due to trades or retirements often have some targets that will be up for grabs in the following year. Last year one of the teams that I was higher on for this reason was the Ravens, and this year, it’s the Dolphins. Jarvis Landry alone had 161 targets in 2017 and now he’s in Cleveland. His target share alone offers a great opportunity for someone else to pick these up. Julius Thomas is also a player that won’t be back in 2018, and although he didn’t have too many targets last year, he did have 62 on the season. The player that I’m most interested in grabbing later in drafts is Stills.
Stills has been a sneaky good fantasy player in Miami, finishing as the WR28 in PPR in 2017. He finished the season with 105 targets, and the only thing stopping him from exceeding this number in 2018 would have to be an injury. Some of your league-mates may be banking on a breakout from Davante Parker, but Stills as the 46th wide receiver off the board is some excellent value. Similar to Cobb, I see Stills as someone with a safe floor thanks to the number of targets he’ll see, a WR3, with upside. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished in the top 20 again this year.
Chris Godwin – WR70
When you’re looking at someone that’s going as the 70th wide receiver off the board, you’re looking at one of your very last picks of the draft. In a typical 12-team league with 16 rosters spots or so, Godwin is someone I’m looking to grab with one of my last picks in my fantasy drafts. Although his breakout season may be put off for a bit thanks to veteran DeSean Jackson still has some upside in Tampa Bay, Godwin is dirt cheap and offers some nice upside. He’s one that I have no problem throwing on the bottom of my roster, or even keeping an eye on him as the year starts, and being ahead of the waiver wire if he goes undrafted. There is almost no chance that Jackson returns to Tampa Bay after this year, so it may be a year until Godwin really breaks out, but at this point in your drafts, he’s someone I love taking a flyer on.
Over the last four games of the 2017 season, Godwin put up some nice fantasy numbers that really made owners start looking his way. Over those four games, he averaged 4 receptions on 6.5 targets. He put up 73.8 yards on average over these games, 11.5 yards per target, and 20.1 yards per reception. He did just have one touchdown over those four games, but the signs were definitely pointing in the right direction. Godwin was a very highly touted prospect heading into the 2017 NFL Draft, but his stock dropped a fair amount thanks to the landing spot. Between the receiving core and the two tight ends, there just wasn’t enough volume there for the fantasy production to be there. I believe that Godwin has a good chance to show what he is capable of, and the Buccaneers appear to be ready and willing to get him involved. As the 70th wide receiver off the board, he’s a great one with minimal risk to take a flyer on.
Other Late Round WRs to Target:
Allen Hurns, Nelson Agholor, and Jordan Matthews
Rookie RBs Set to Make an Impact in 2018
Late Round Draft Targets: RB
Late Round Draft Targets: WR
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Aaron Schillinger is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his profile and follow him @aaron_schill.