Alex Smith Is Extremely Undervalued (2018 Fantasy Football)

There are a lot of people who jumped on the whole “Washington downgraded at quarterback” take when they traded for Alex Smith this offseason. As a team, they obviously felt like they knew what they had in Kirk Cousins and didn’t want to offer him top-dollar. While your opinion on Cousins may differ from theirs, we now need to look at their new quarterback and decide whether or not he’s going to succeed.

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Most are attributing Smith’s 2017 season to Tyreek Hill, saying that the receiver took him to another level as a passer. When you step away from everything and hear that statement, it makes very little sense. Think about it this way… Do you think Hill is better than Calvin Johnson? Here are Matthew Stafford‘s stats with and without Johnson.

There’s been plenty of bad quarterbacks with elite wide receivers who couldn’t make it work. While Hill most definitely could’ve taken Smith’s game to the next level, it doesn’t mean that he made Smith. It’s also why Smith may be an underrated quarterback heading into 2018.

GAME MANAGER

One of the phrases you’ll often hear associated with Smith is “game manager,” as he seemingly never took shots down the field. I was guilty of it myself. I’m not lying when I tell you that this was a statement that came out of my mouth prior to last year’s NFL Draft: “If you were guaranteed an Alex Smith-type ceiling, would he be the consensus No. 1 quarterback? If I own a franchise, I’m aiming higher.” This is where we must admit when we’re wrong. Smith was never someone who took many risks and never showed off his ability to throw the deep ball, which turned me off. But let’s talk about where I went wrong.

As you can see, Smith played on top-seven defenses in seven of the last nine years. When playing for a defense that is holding opponents to 16-19 points per game, not a whole lot is going to be asked of you as a quarterback. To know that 2017 was the first year Smith played under an offensive-minded head coach with a defense ranked outside the top-10 is something to keep in mind, as he was asked to win games for them rather than relying on the defense. Needless to say, he was up to the task, finishing as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback despite throwing the ball just 505 times, which ranked 13th in the league. The funny part is that it was nearly a career-high, as he’s never thrown the ball more than 508 times in a single season. Should we really fault him because he did what he was asked to do, which was manage the game? On the flip side, let’s look at what Kirk Cousins has been asked to do over the last four years.

Seeing the defensive ranks for his team, it should come as no shock that Cousins has thrown the sixth-most passes in the NFL over the last three years and didn’t finish with any less than 540 pass attempts. As for what the Washington defense looks like going into 2018, they lost cornerback Kendall Fuller in the Smith trade, then lost cornerback Bashaud Breeland and linebacker Trent Murphy in free agency. They did add oft-injured linebacker Pernell McPhee in free agency, then drafted a few defensive tackles in Da’Ron Payne (first-round) and Tim Settle (fifth-round), and then linebacker Shaun Dion-Hamilton (sixth-round). It’s fair to say they haven’t exactly improved significantly, which means Smith will be relied upon in a similar way Cousins was.

EFFICIENCY

Once he was asked to open up the offense, Smith actually led the NFL in deep-ball passer rating (131.4, next closest was 111.6), deep-ball passing yards (1,344, next closest was 1,136), and deep-ball touchdowns (12). Again, Hill was definitely an aid in him throwing for all those numbers, but if Smith was an incapable quarterback, he wouldn’t have been a league-leader. The players who were closest to him in these categories include Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Kirk Cousins.

Going through the data on what Smith’s average depth of target has been over the years, he’s stuck in the 7.0-7.9-yard range throughout all but one of his seasons, which really does show how little he chucked the ball down the field. But even in 2017, that number was just 7.4 yards, one of the lowest marks in the league. Is that a product of the offense he’s in? It’s absolutely a factor. What did Jay Gruden have Cousins at over the last three years? Anywhere from 7.8-8.7-yard range, which is much higher than Smith has been asked to do in his career. Does it mean he can’t do it? As he proved on his deep-passes last year, he’s capable.

Here’s an eye-opening stat that most people will likely look up to make sure it’s correct, but I can assure you that it’s accurate: Since 2011, there are just two quarterbacks who sport a higher touchdown to interception ratio than Smith. Those two quarterbacks are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Want another stat? There were just five quarterbacks who performed as a top-12 option more than 50 percent of the time last year: Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, and Smith. He’s the only one not being drafted as a top-eight option.

RUSHING UPSIDE

While Andy Reid has been known for churning out RB1s every single year, Jay Gruden’s offense has been really kind to quarterbacks around the goal line. Despite rushing for just 323 yards over the last three seasons, Cousins was able to rush for 13 touchdowns, which ranks third behind only Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor, who each rushed for more than 1,500 yards. Meanwhile, Smith has rushed for 987 yards in that same span yet rushed for just eight touchdowns. If the play-calling allows the quarterback to take the play where he sees fit, Smith could rush for five-plus touchdowns this year, especially now that Derrius Guice is out for the season. Don’t think it’s possible? Smith actually rushed for five touchdowns in 2016.

WEAPONS

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Smith has a new Tyreek Hill out in Washington, but he does have a few weapons that are more than competent. Jordan Reed is a similar receiver to Travis Kelce, though Kelce is a much better blocker. Jamison Crowder can get separation similar to the way Hill does underneath the defense, while they brought in Paul Richardson to be the field-stretcher of the offense. He’s also got Chris Thompson out of the backfield and Josh Doctson in the red zone, so there’s not a shortage of options. While his options may be a slight downgrade from the 2017 Chiefs (Hill, Kelce, Kareem Hunt), they’re much better than what he’s had for the majority of his career.

2018 OUTLOOK

Here’s the bottom line with Smith in 2018 – he’s going to hit a career-high in pass attempts. Even if he were to return to his game manager ways, him getting 550 pass attempts would net you a lot better fantasy finish than you’d expect. If you were to keep the same exact efficiency that Smith has had in his career and extend it over 550 pass attempts in each season, he would’ve scored more than 300 fantasy points three separate times in his career. There was exactly one quarterback who scored 300 fantasy points in 2017. No, he doesn’t have Tyreek Hill, but he didn’t have him as a starter before 2017. He also doesn’t have a top-seven defense like he’s had for the majority of his career. His coach has produced a top-eight quarterback in each of the last three years, so you can say he’s quarterback-friendly. Don’t give up on Smith because of who he was while playing alongside elite defenses, because if you sat down and watched every Chiefs game in 2017, you’d walk away with a different impression. It legitimately would not shock me, and should not shock you if Smith finishes as a top-10 quarterback in 2018. My 2018 projection: 361-of-548 passing for 4,067 yards, 26 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 279 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.