When fantasy crosses over into real-life football thoughts, there’s a crossroads that we reach. When a player is as talented as Cooper, we expect them to shine in fantasy football, but as you all know, that wasn’t the case with Cooper in 2017. You may be telling yourself that Cooper isn’t as talented as some believe, but that’s simply not true.

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HISTORIC START TO CAREER

When you accumulate back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to start your career, it’s pretty remarkable, as there’s been just nine players in the history of the NFL to accomplish that feat. Did you know he was one of just three wide receivers in history to record 70-plus receptions and 1,000 yards in his first two seasons? The other two were Odell Beckham Jr. and Marques Colston. You don’t do that if you’re not extremely talented, especially when you consider he wasn’t playing with an elite quarterback (sorry, Derek Carr supporters).

But let’s look at everything on a larger scale, as there have been 25 wide receivers who’ve finished with at least 2,000 yards over their first two seasons since 1965. How did they look in their third year and were Cooper’s struggles predictable?

First things first, this is a very impressive list of players. When you’re surrounded by Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers, it’s a good list to be on, even if Cooper is dead-last among them. So why the regression? What happened to the guy who was on a historic pace to start his career? What we will say after looking at this list, is that there was no reason you should have predicted Cooper’s lackluster season.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2017?

Anyone who owned Cooper in 2017 will tell you that even though he finished as the No. 31 wide receiver, he might as well have finished as the No. 50 wide receiver, as 29.9 percent of his standard points came in one game against the Chiefs in Week 7 where he went bananas for 210 yards and two touchdowns. To give you an idea as to just how inconsistent he was, here’s a chart of his Boom, Bust, and Everything In-Between scores (a series that I started last year, and one that will return early August) over his first three seasons.

As you can see, the consistency was simply not there. But truth be told, he’s been somewhat lacking consistency throughout his entire career, posing WR3 or better numbers just 50 percent of the time prior to 2017. His comparison to this point in his career is Jordy Nelson, who had some lackluster production earlier in his career.

Knowing that Cooper plays with Carr, you should expect a bit more inconsistency than Nelson had with Aaron Rodgers. For instance, did you know that Carr has posted QB1 numbers in just 32 percent of his career starts? What about the fact that he’s scored 13.9 or less fantasy points in 53 percent of his starts? I understand that this is not helping Cooper’s cause for production, but rather letting you know why there’s been some inconsistencies to his game.

Based on where he was on the field when targeted last year (did a study on this for wide receivers, you can find it right here), Cooper actually scored 7.5 more fantasy points than he was expected to on his 96 targets. In 2016, that number was 12.8 over expected, which ranked among the top-20 in the league (that’s even with his horrid red-zone score). The issue with his production in 2017 came down to his target share dipping, as he saw five or less targets in 6-of-14 games, including three games with one or two targets. Going back to his first two seasons, Cooper saw at least six targets in 24-of-32 games.

How many people have told you to expect regression for Tyreek Hill due to his 105 targets last year? Well, he saw at least six targets in 14-of-15 games in 2017, which goes to show just how much of an uphill battle that Cooper had in 2017. His 6.9 targets per game ranked 32nd among wide receivers. Did you know that there were just three wide receivers who finished top-24 last year with less than 100 targets? Now that you know Cooper saw just 97 targets, you should have a better understanding as to why he was facing an uphill battle in 2017.

Did Cooper get in his own way of production at times with his drops? He absolutely did, but the fact that he still scored more than he was expected to tells me that we still haven’t seen his true ceiling once he eliminates the drops, which are an extremely overrated stat. Did you know that Keenan Allen, Demaryius Thomas, and Evan Engram all had more drops than Cooper last year? In 2016, Michael Crabtree and Julian Edelman recorded the most dropped passes in the league, but nobody talks about that. Lack of consistent targets and quarterback-play were to blame for Cooper’s struggles in 2017, not necessarily his play.

WHAT CHANGES IN 2018

Well, there’s a lot that’s changed with Cooper’s outlook in 2018, as Michael Crabtree is out, while Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant are in. But more importantly, Cooper has a new head coach and offensive coordinator. As soon as the Raiders hired Jon Gruden, he told reporters, “Cooper is going to be a great player. He’ll be the focal point of our offense… the headliner in our offense.” Keep in mind that this was when Crabtree was still on the roster, who is far more talented than Nelson at this point in his career. The love from Gruden didn’t stop there, as a few months later, he compared Cooper to Hall of Fame receiver Tim Brown. But this statement meant the most: “If he (Cooper) can’t, nobody can. There’s no doubt about it. For Amari, this is going to be an incredible opportunity for him to have 120, 125 catches a year without any problem.”

While coachspeak is what it is, Gruden’s play-calling has supported at least one 1,000-yard wide receiver in each of his 11 years as a head coach. In fact, there were two 1,000-yard receivers on the Raiders team he coached in 2001. So, when you hear about Gruden wanting to “run the ball like it’s 1999,” remember that his last eight teams haven’t finished top-10 in rushing attempts. When searching for a wide receiver who has that capability in the Raiders receiver corps, Cooper is the natural selection, as Bryant has yet to top 765 yards in his career, and Nelson is now 33 years old while starting in a new offense with a new quarterback.

Going back through the last eight years that Gruden was a head coach, his top wide receiver totaled at least 122 targets in 7-of-8 seasons and averaged 134.3 targets. Even if you look into Greg Olson, who he hired to be the offensive coordinator, his offenses have ranked top-12 in pass attempts in four of the last five seasons. Olson has been a coordinator for 10 seasons and has finished outside of the top-20 in rushing attempts in all but two of them (highest finishes were 13th and 16th). No matter what the Raiders coaching staff tells you, history says they’ll be throwing more than they’re letting on.

2018 OUTLOOK

While it’s hard to look past what was a nightmarish 2017 season, you really should when it comes to Cooper. The issue is that it’s not reflected in his cost right now, as he’s being drafted as 17th wide receiver off the board in early ADP. But if you’re looking for the positives here, it’s that there were just 13 wide receivers who finished with at least 1,000 receiving yards last year, and none of them finished outside the top-20 wide receivers. If you believe that Gruden’s trend of producing 1,000-yard receivers continues, Cooper’s price isn’t bad at all. In the end, I’ll own Cooper in some places, but I won’t reach for him. If you’re looking for upside, he’s got it, but he’s not for the feint of heart. If you want safety, draft Demaryius Thomas or Golden Tate instead. My 2018 projection: 130 targets, 77 receptions, 1,070 yards, 6 touchdowns

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.