When preparing for fantasy football drafts, most analysts will tell you to “follow the targets” with wide receivers, and while I don’t disagree with that, there’s some targets that are worth more than others, and no, I’m not just talking about which quarterback they’re coming from.

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Each target to a wide receiver is worth roughly 1.06 standard fantasy points. But let’s break that number down a bit more. A target inside the red-zone isn’t worth the same as a target outside the red-zone, right? In 2017, the average red-zone target was worth 1.81 fantasy points, while targets in-between the 20’s averaged just 0.94 fantasy points. I’ve even taken my research to another level this season, increasing the expected outcome for targets inside the 10-yard line to 2.38 fantasy points, which was the average in 2017.

By doing this, we will see who was better than they were supposed to be in 2017, as well as who left fantasy points on the table based on where they were targeted on the field. While their target location in 2017 doesn’t automatically translate to 2018, we have a good idea about how the team wanted to use them.

Outside the Red-Zone

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that this is an exact science, as the game of football can change drastically based on just a couple inches. There isn’t one statistic that will tell you the whole story, nor is there one metric. What I will say, however, is that the cream of the crop typically rise-up with the bigger the sample size you have. I mean, how many times have you heard someone say yards per carry is useless? When Jamaal Charles, Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and Gale Sayers are the all-time leaders, it’s fair to say that it means something. But every now and then, you’ll see someone like Austin Ekeler average 5.5 yards per carry and be near the league-leader in that category, making you scratch your head. Does that mean he’s as good as the all-time greats? No, but often, a good yard per carry average will gravitate towards the more talented backs.

Just like the players near the top of every list, most bad players end up towards the bottom of lists. If you’re an elite or semi-decent player, you shouldn’t be popping up at the bottom of any list, including the one below. On the chart below, you’ll see a player’s non-red-zone points they scored, as well as how many they would’ve scored if they’d simply been average, and the difference between the two numbers. I’ve narrowed it down to those who saw at least 20 or more targets, which was a total of 127 wide receivers.

The Top-36 (Above Expected)

Reading the chart above, you should now know that Tyreek Hill scored 64.7 more fantasy points than the average wide receiver would have on targets outside the red-zone. Marvin Jones wasn’t too far behind at 50.5 points above what was expected, but after those two, nobody else hit a mark higher than 33.6 points. Think about that for a second – Hill almost doubled the amount of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was No. 3 on this list. It’s large in-part to do with the fact that Hill scored all seven of his touchdowns outside the red-zone, the most in the NFL. Of the 431 wide receiver touchdowns last year, just 167 touchdowns were scored outside the red-zone, or 38.7 percent. You should now understand why a lot of analysts are expecting regression, and that was before Sammy Watkins was signed. Another player that stood out for a high non-red-zone touchdown mark was Robby Anderson, who scored six of his seven touchdowns outside the red-zone.

This is the area where you’d expect to see the high yards per reception guys shine, even if their catch-rate isn’t quite as high, but when you see high-target guys like Julio Jones and Antonio Brown in the conversation despite them seeing top-tier cornerbacks every week, you should understand just how special they are. There were 22 wide receivers who saw at least 100 targets last year, but only 10 of them made it onto this list inside the top-36.

The Bottom-36 (Below Expected)

There’s some big names that you likely didn’t expect on this bottom list, but these are the players where if they finished towards the top of fantasy points at the end of the season, it was due to volume or what they did inside the red-zone (you’ll find out below). You can also attest some of their struggles to bad quarterback-play, but some have teammates who made it into the top-36, so that’s hard to use as the sole excuse. For instance, Alshon Jeffery scored 84.1 fantasy points on 103 targets outside the red-zone, while Nelson Agholor scored 94.5 fantasy points on 77 targets outside the red-zone.

This is obviously a list you don’t want to be a part of, so seeing the names Jarvis Landry, Demaryius Thomas, and Larry Fitzgerald here isn’t a good thing. Again, this is just one piece of a giant puzzle, so you shouldn’t necessarily write them off, but if nothing has changed for the better in their situation, it’s a warning sign at the very least. If you’re curious, the bottom-eight in this category in 2016 included: Allen Robinson, Jeremy Kerley, Tavon Austin, Brandon Marshall, Jordan Matthews, Dorial Green-Beckham, Terrelle Pryor, and Julian Edelman.

Inside the Red-Zone

This is the research that is volatile year-over-year because it’s heavily weighted by touchdowns, and it’s the reason the average target was worth 1.81 fantasy points instead of the 0.94 outside the red-zone. Again, I’ve broken this part down into targets that were inside the 10-yard line as well, which were worth even more. So instead of using this statistic as one to lean on for projecting future success, use it to see who may regress in 2017, because after all, touchdowns are the most volatile thing in fantasy football. Similar to the above charts, I’ve broken it down by those who scored much more than expected in the red-zone, as well as those who scored much less than expected.

The Top-36 (Above Expected)

Similar to the non-red-zone chart, there are two players atop this list who are head and shoulders above the rest. Both Stefon Diggs and Sammy Watkins scored a lot more than they were rightfully supposed to in 2017, as they both more than doubled their expected output. Fun fact: Diggs was actually in the bottom-36 in 2016, scoring 10.2 points less than expected, highlighting the volatility of red-zone prowess. You can also see why both Alshon Jeffery and Jarvis Landry were able to finish with solid numbers despite struggling outside the red-zone, as they both exceeded their expectations inside the red zone.

So, when looking at the list above, you should expect some of the top options to regress to the mean, simply because that’s what happens (again, unless you’re Dez Bryant in the red-zone). It helps if they’re playing with an elite quarterback, but again, red-zone numbers can correct themselves the very next year. In 2015, Michael Crabtree scored just 13.8 fantasy points on 13 targets in the red-zone, but then scored 55.7 points on 23 targets in 2016. That’s just one example of how you can use this chart to your advantage. If there’s one thing that’s clear, it’s that both Diggs and Watkins are extremely likely to regress inside the red-zone, especially when you consider they aren’t Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant-type wide receivers.

There were some names who showed up in the top-36 of both lists, which is a good thing for their projected role in 2018 (provided no significant changes in their situation): JuJu Smith-Schuster, Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, Deandre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Rishard Matthews, Will Fuller, Paul Richardson, Devin Funchess, Davante Adams, Golden Tate, and Cooper Kupp.

Bottom-36 (Below Expected)

Wait, Julio Jones wasn’t great in the red-zone last year?! Insert sarcasm font. Everyone knows that Jones scored just three touchdowns last year, but did you know that if he’d been simply average inside the red-zone, then he would’ve finished as the No. 3 fantasy receiver instead of the No. 6 receiver that he did? Go ahead and say that he’s not an elite red-zone option, but don’t tell me he’s consistently below average. He’s going to score more touchdowns in 2018 and you should be buying at his current cost, because 2017 was his floor.

Some other names who most wouldn’t expect on here include Keenan Allen, who scored just 31.9 fantasy points on 24 red-zone targets. By comparison, Jordy Nelson scored 34.3 points… on just 12 red-zone targets… without Aaron Rodgers a majority of the season. Am I saying that Nelson is/was better than Allen? No, I’m saying that there’s actually room for Allen to grow in 2018. DeVante Parker and Mike Evans are two other wide receivers who you should expect plenty more scoring from in 2018, as they’re both big-bodied wide receivers who were on the wrong side of regression last year.

As I did with those above expectations, here are the only players who showed up in the bottom-36 of both lists: Kendall Wright, Emmanuel Sanders, Pierre Garcon, Zay Jones, Tavon Austin, Kamar Aiken, Eric Decker, Terrance Williams, DeVante Parker, and Ricardo Louis. While it’s not the end-all-be-all, this is not a good list to be on.

Overall (All Targets Combined)

Here’s the combined list of all targets they received and what their total differences were in comparison to the average player with the same exact targets.

Top-36 (Above Expected)

Bottom-36 (Below Expected)

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.