Fantasy leagues that use PPR scoring usually have much deeper drafts. The additional point given for receptions allows owners to find quality fill-ins, flexes, and potential starters later in drafts — if they know where to look. Owners in PPR leagues should be able to identify their best options in the later rounds of drafts to get good value and production, so we’re going to identify some of those options today. I’ve outlined five players with high floors in PPR scoring leagues.
Players like Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara, and Antonio Brown were not included, because they are obvious PPR studs. The players here are ones who you may undervalue or might not have on your radar at all. Their offensive output and pass-catching prowess make these players safe bets in 2018 PPR drafts.
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Pierre Garcon (WR – SF) – ADP: WR33, Overall 79
Garçon was on pace for an 80-catch, 1,000-yard season before a neck injury forced him to miss the final eight games of 2017. Marquise Goodwin filled in nicely in Garçon’s absence, and he is a popular sleeper pick this season. In the games that Goodwin and Garçon played together, Garçon went 40-500-0 to Goodwin’s 20-349-0. The former will be the preferred option for Jimmy Garoppolo this season.
Garcon has a history of quality production. Excluding his rookie season, Garcon has averaged 67 catches per year in his last nine seasons. From 2013 – 2016, Garçon averaged a steady 83 receptions on 128 targets, leading the league in receptions in 2013. His 2017 pace was 134 targets and 80 receptions. Matching those numbers in 2018 is completely viable and very likely considering the momentum this team and its new quarterback bring with it heading into the season.
Garçon, the sure-handed veteran, will surely see the bulk of Jimmy G’s targets. Goodwin has averaged fewer than two receptions per game in five NFL seasons, and there is little reason to believe he will have a breakout season in 2018. The majority of his 2017 production came after Garçon went out. He is quick, but undersized and may have some big plays, but he is not steady and reliable like Garçon. The other pass catchers that Garçon has to compete with are the TE tandem of George Kittle and Garrett Celek (who I don’t believe offer much upside, as outlined here) and the 5’8 Trent Taylor. Garçon’s place as the target-leader in an emerging offense and his proven production throughout his career make him a high-floor PPR player in 2018.
Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) – ADP: WR43, Overall 104
Yes, Odell Beckham is back and poised to take the top off of defenses once again. But Shepard offers a very safe floor for PPR players, even if his ceiling is capped by his All-Pro teammate. Shepard’s 2016 rookie season saw him finish with 105 targets. He played in only 11 games last year, but his full-season pace was 123 targets for 2017. It’s true that the Giants lost Odell Beckham in Week 4 of last season, so Shepard’s 123-target pace may not be realistic in 2018.
However, let’s look at the four games Shepard played with OBJ last season. From Weeks 1-4, Shepard had 27 targets and 21 receptions. He has one season of over 100 targets in the books playing with OBJ, and I think he has another coming in 2018.
Shepard is a highly-talented player, but opportunity and volume within this offense give him an even safer floor. The New York Giants have averaged 609 passing attempts per season over the last four years, ranking first, eighth, sixth, and ninth, respectively, in that category dating back to 2014. Excluding his rookie season, Eli Manning has averaged 554 passing attempts per season. The opportunities will be there for Shepard this season because from 2014 – 2016, Odell Beckham averaged 152 targets while the team’s second-most targeted receiver (Reuben Randle 2014-2015, Shepard 2016) averaged 107 targets.
Shepard is more experienced and healthy heading into 2018, so I expect him to receive more than 107 targets, but let’s be conservative. He has a career 65.6% catch rate, so if Shepard finishes with just 107 targets, he still catches 70 balls. Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley will undoubtedly get their share of Manning’s looks, but with so many attempts, there’s room to support a plethora of productive pass-catchers.
Adding to a successful narrative, Shepard has had an impressive camp so far. In fact, Manning has recently praised him, saying he’s “primed for a big year.” Shepard is a receiver coming into his third season, on a pass-first team, fully healthy, with good teammates, and an improved offensive line. A 115-target/70-reception season will be in the books by the end of 2018, and Shepard offers a very safe floor with a lot of upside in PPR leagues.
Jack Doyle (TE – IND) – ADP: TE11, Overall 114
Doyle put his name on the fantasy map last season, making his debut among the position’s top 12 for the first time in his career. When Coby Fleener took his flowing locks to greener pastures in 2016, his backup, Doyle, was given his shot. The latter cashed in, finishing second on the Colts in targets, receptions, and reception yards in 2016. In 2017, Doyle led the team in receptions and receiving TDs, and he finished one target behind “Eugene” T.Y. Hilton for the team lead.
The Colts have a history of TE production in the Andrew Luck era. Counting the last six seasons (one with Brissett and five with Luck), TEs have averaged 134 targets, 87 receptions, and nearly 10 TDs per season. In the two most productive years for Colts’ tight ends (2014, 2016), that position averaged 157-104-15. These are cumulative numbers for team TEs, meaning Doyle won’t see a line quite that lofty, but recent history shows that tight end production is valued and sustained in Indy. Doyle has averaged just shy of 70 receptions per season over the last two years, and the addition of Eric Ebron to this team won’t hamper that production by much.
The wide receivers outside of Hilton on this team are Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers and a supporting cast of unfamiliar names. Luck will likely lean on his TEs, and both Doyle and Ebron can be productive. Of the two, Doyle is the most likely to see the majority of targets and receptions, although the red-zone favorite is still unclear. Add in the fact that twice under Luck have two TEs caught at least five TDs in the same season, and Doyle becomes an even more attractive option.
The biggest question mark associated with drafting Colts’ pass catchers for 2018 is the health of Andrew Luck, but that shouldn’t make owners shy away from Doyle. While Hilton’s success is tied fairly closely to good QB play, Doyle’s is not. Doyle finished 2016 as the TE13 with Luck under center. He had a better finish in 2017 as the TE7 with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
I’m certainly not saying that Doyle’s production will be better without Luck. I’m simply saying that no matter who is under center, Doyle will be a safe bet for 60 receptions making him a high-floor option with TD upside. I’m not going to recoil when drafting Doyle.
Giovani Bernard (RB – CIN) – ADP: RB47, Overall 134
Despite the turnover at the starting RB position in recent years, Bernard has been a constant force in the Bengals offense. Coming into his sixth season, the primarily-passing downs back has racked up nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards per season. He comes into 2018 boasting career totals of 2,900 yards rushing, 2,060 yards receiving, and 24 total TDs. What makes his numbers even more impressive is the fact that he has only started in 14 games out of 71 played. Amazingly, he has only fumbled four times on 918 career touches, meaning he will get touches and has earned the trust of the coaching staff.
In his starts, he has caught 41 balls for 325 yards — nearly three receptions per game. He can also carry a full rushing load, evidenced by his 170 carries for 640 yards in starts. That’s encouraging if Joe Mixon misses any time this season. If not, the numbers are still great if Bernard plays his usual change-of-pace role.
Overall, Bernard has averaged 46 receptions per season, finishing with under 40 receptions just once, which was in 2016 when he recorded 39 receptions after appearing in only 10 games. Bernard’s per game reception average is just north of three receptions per game – a pace of 51 receptions per 16 games. He has averaged 61 targets per season, but his per-game, full-season pace is 69 targets per season.
Bernard is a lock for at least 60 targets, 40 receptions, and nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards per season with the bonus of being a solid between-the-tackles runner. His production in the passing game makes him a high-floor PPR player every season. With all of the hype around Mixon this year, Bernard has gotten overlooked and seen his ADP fall into the 12th round. He’s not only a high-floor option this year, but at his current price, he’s a great value as well.
Theo Riddick (RB – DET) – ADP: RB49, Overall 146
Detroit’s diminutive dynamo has quietly put together three consecutive quality PPR seasons dating back to 2015. Over the last three seasons, Riddick’s finishes in PPR leagues were RB26, RB25, and RB18. Often overshadowed by Matthew Stafford and the receiving corps, Riddick is a vital part of the passing attack for the Lions. In fact, in 2015, he tied for the most receptions among RBs with 80, amassing nearly 700 yards receiving in the process. In 2016, he tied for sixth with 53 receptions on 67 targets, and in 2017, he tied for ninth in receptions with 53 on 71 targets. Riddick has had success in limited action in the run game as well. His 2015-2017 total offensive production equals 776 rush yards and five rush TDs, 237 targets, 186 receptions, 1,512 receiving yards, and 10 receiving TDs.
The additions of LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson to the Lions’ roster only further cement Riddick’s place in the offense. Blount, a career bruiser and plodder, has 54 career receptions in eight NFL seasons — less than Riddick’s most recent three-year average. Kerryon Johnson’s 55-478-2 receiving line in three years at Auburn leaves a lot to be desired in the passing game.
Riddick won’t lose passing-down work to these guys, and the Lions are sure to be playing in high-scoring games with four divisional matches against Green Bay and Minnesota and games against the Rams, Cowboys, and Patriots. The Lions will be passing, and Riddick will get work.
Here is a guy who will get you 700 yards of total offense, five TDs, and 62 receptions per season. At his current price in the 13th round of drafts, he is criminally undervalued. Riddick indeed won’t wow you every week or put up huge yardage totals, but he is a quality bye-week replacement and spot-start based on the matchup. His 62 receptions per year give him a very high floor. I’d love to have him on my fantasy team this year, and he could very well be the steal of drafts.
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Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.
