DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 6
I love Todd Gurley ($10,000) and Julio Jones ($7,900) this week. They’re my favorite big-ticket players, but there are some others I like as well. They’re going to be popular options, though, and budgeting for them requires some bargains elsewhere. You don’t need me to analyze the fact Gurley and Jones are studs, though. If you want to read about why I like them specifically, you should check out the FanDuel lineup I constructed with analysis for both players.
Instead of highlighting them among my favorite GPP plays at DraftKings this week, I’ve turned my attention to a handful of affordable options to surround them with. It starts with a bargain three-man stack. They’re joined by four one-off suggestions ranging in salary from $3,900 to $6,400 — the next priciest option in the quartet is only $5,100. I’ll be mixing and matching the following players with the aforementioned duo of Gurley and Jones.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): $5,500 vs. Chargers
Antonio Callaway (WR – CLE): $4,000 vs. Chargers
David Njoku (TE – CLE): $3,800 vs. Chargers
Mayfield’s priced outside the top-10 signal callers this week, but he has immense upside in a far softer matchup this week than he encountered in just his second NFL start last week. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Chargers 16th in pass defense and last week’s opponent, the Ravens, fourth. The Chargers simply aren’t as fearsome without Joey Bosa disrupting plays.
The rookie quarterback hasn’t been flawless in his two starts, but he’s averaged over 300 yards passing per game with three touchdowns and 33 yards rushing. Yes, he’s turned it over four times, but his body of work as a starter has been worth a pinch over 19 DraftKings fantasy points per game. That’s not too shabby, and it puts him at around 3.5 times value for his $5,500 salary if he merely duplicates his average, yet, there’s upside for more. The Chargers have surrendered 21.4 DraftKings per game to quarterbacks, the 12th most, according to Pro-Football-Reference. I like Mayfield’s odds of surpassing 20 DraftKings points against a potentially jetlagged Chargers team making the cross-country trip for a 1:00 PM ET game.
Jarvis Landry ($6,600) is a great stack partner with Mayfield, and I’ll undoubtedly use the combo on some rosters. However, using the highlighted duo of Callaway and Njoku makes for an intriguing swerve from the masses. Callaway is a field stretcher who could give the Chargers trouble. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Callaway’s 15.3 Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY) is tied for the eighth-highest mark. To put that number in perspective, it’s tied with Tedd Ginn’s mark and just a bit behind Julio Jones‘ 15.5 TAY. NFL.com credits the Chargers with yielding the second-most 20-plus yard passes (26), and they’re also tied for the fourth-most 40-plus yard passes allowed (five). A few long strikes — namely one or more resulting in touchdowns — would allow Callaway to entirely obliterate value.
Njoku is a volume-based play. Graham Barfield, who’s the Managing Editor for fantasy football at NFL.com, recently tweeted about Njoku’s increased target share with Mayfield. The second-year tight end’s target share has jumped from 11% with non-Mayfield quarterbacks last year and this year to 19% with Mayfield. Last week’s usage is also tantalizing and worth noting. Justin Bailey tweeted about Njoku and pointed out that he ran a pass route on 46 of Mayfield’s 50 dropbacks while setting numerous season-highs last week. Things are trending in the right direction for the young tight end with dreamy measurables that earned a best comparable player at Player Profiler of Travis Kelce.
T.J. Yeldon (RB – JAC): $6,400 at Cowboys
Yeldon has been an every-down back for the Jaguars with Leonard Fournette banged up. He’s totaled at least 69 yards from scrimmage in every game this year, reached or exceeded 90 yards from scrimmage in three straight, and reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage in back-to-back contests. He’s also touched the ball a dozen or more times every game this year, caught multiple passes in every game while catching at least three in four of five games.
The 25-year-old back’s pass-catching exploits are what I’m most drawn to this week. The Cowboys are tied for the fourth-most receptions (37) allowed to running backs this year. A Cowboys defense that was sans Sean Lee last week and will be without him again this week allowed 46 yards rushing on 20 carries and 73 yards on eight receptions to Alfred Blue. Alfred freaking Blue torched them. Yeldon’s a better back, and a third-straight week of 24 DraftKings fantasy points or more is within reach.
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): $5,100 at Raiders
Lockett hasn’t needed much in the way of volume to be productive this season. He’s been targeted between four and seven times in every game, and he’s caught three or more passes and bested 50 yards in all five games. He’s reached 60 yards or more three times this year, and he’s caught a touchdown in four games. He’s been reliable and efficient, and his big-play ability should play well against the Raiders. Oakland’s 23 pass plays of 20-plus yards allowed is tied for the third most, and the six passes 40-plus yards allowed is tied with two others for the most allowed. The Raiders have allowed the 13th-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts.
More interestingly, however, is that Oakland’s allowed a whopping 15.77 yards per reception to receivers. Lockett’s a home-run hitter who ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His blistering speed could prove to be a significant problem for Oakland’s secondary. Pro Football Focus (PFF) shows him drawing Daryl Worley in coverage, and he ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. If the Raiders fill the box to stop Seattle’s “Beast Mode” renaissance offense, Lockett’s fully capable of barbecuing them.
Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI): $4,600 at Dolphins
Is it possible Matt Nagy has figured out to unleash his electric second-year weapon? Maybe! Before Chicago’s Week 5 bye, Cohen smacked the Buccaneers around for 174 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown reception on 13 carries and seven receptions. Perhaps the signs were there the week before with Cohen rushing for 53 yards on five carries and adding three receptions for 15 yards.
Now, the Bears have had the bye week to further figure out how to unleash him. He’ll square off against a Dolphins defense that’s coughed up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game and is especially vulnerable to backs beating them in the passing game. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most receptions (36) and seventh-most receiving yards (294) to running backs while tying for the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed (three) to them this season. FO ranks the Dolphins ninth defending the run, but just 23rd defending backs as receivers. Cohen looks like the optimal back in Chicago’s backfield to attack the Dolphins with, and I’d be surprised if Nagy’s not aware of that. Look for the first-year, offensive-minded head coach to exploit that matchup.
Taywan Taylor (WR – TEN): $3,900 vs. Ravens
The Titans delivered a clunker in a losing effort to the Bills in Buffalo last week, and Taylor deserves some blame after losing a fumble early in the game. His 3-30-0 line on five targets was an underwhelming follow up to posting a 7-77-0 line on nine targets against the Eagles the week before. The Titans need help behind Corey Davis in the passing attack, and Taylor is probably the best equipped to emerge as the No. 2. Barfield highlighted him as a waiver-wire add in season-long leagues, but it’s something he noted in Taylor’s blurb that caught my eye. He mentioned that, per PFF, Taylor’s 2.17 yards gained per pass route run ranks 19th out of 83 receivers. The efficiency is intriguing and in need of a volume bump.
Could this be the week he gets it after Tennessee’s offense was stuck in neutral last week? It’s possible, if not probable. In three-receiver sets, Taylor projects to get the best cornerback matchup from the slot, according to PFF’s matchups and player grades. PlayerProfiler credits Tavon Young with a 60.1% slot rate on a 68.7% snap share. PFF ranks him 62nd among corners this year. Elsewhere, I noted Taylor’s red zone usage in naming him my value/sleeper play to reach the end zone at receiver this week. I’ll take the plunge using Taylor as a value play this week at a likely low ownership rate.