Players to Fade on FanDuel: Week 6
Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. We need to not only narrow it down to the best plays; we also need to be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis whether overpriced or in a bad spot. Every week, I’ll do my best to identify some of the players that could be lineup landmines for us on FanDuel. Let’s get to it!
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $8,500 @ CIN
The sample is huge now over his career, and “Road Ben” is very real. More specifically, he’s playing at 1:00 pm EST and that’s when we get to see the worst of Big Ben. Take into consideration that he has only thrown for two or more touchdowns in five of his last 22 games. Out of those five games, he’s only finished as a top-10 QB on the week twice. No thanks!
There’s no way anyone should play him in cash games, and I will be avoiding him in tournaments as well. He’s the most expensive QB on the FanDuel slate and therefore, he’ll most likely be the most costly mistake. Get your Steelers exposure elsewhere.
Devonta Freeman $6,600 & Tevin Coleman (ATL) $6,300 vs. TB
Sometimes coach speak can be ignored. In this week’s example, it’s hard not to pay attention when we hear that this Falcons backfield could become a “three-back committee.” In a game with the highest projected point total of the week, it’s hard not to get exposure to the Atlanta backs as either could provide a serviceable day. This makes them playable in tournaments, but serviceable doesn’t win tournaments.
Both guys possess a lower floor because of each other’s presence in the offensive game plan. If Freeman sits, Coleman becomes a very solid play. Most people will be heavily targeting the passing options in this game, leaving the RBs at lower ownership levels. That said, I can’t pay this much for either of these committee backs when rookie Ito Smith also sees significant touches.
LeSean McCoy (BUF): $6,200 @ HOU
The expected slow pace of this game and the extremely low 15.5 Vegas team total will likely squash any chance of McCoy and the Bills, in general, to putting up any kind of meaningful fantasy performances. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m staying away from the Bills offense as a whole, probably all season. It’s safe to fade them in DFS going forward. To throw more gas on the Buffalo fire, they’re traveling to Houston to face the Texans’ second-ranked DVOA run defense, allowing a fourth-best yards per carry average. The days of “Shady” on the field are over.
A.J. Green (CIN): $8,800 vs. PIT
At first glance, the Pittsburgh passing defense looks vulnerable. However, Joe Haden’s return has improved this unit drastically. This is also one of the best WR-CB matchups on the week. Say what you want about Haden, but he’s done an exceptional job limiting Green over his entire career with the Browns and now the Steelers. Road Ben and a heavy run game on the Pittsburgh side makes me think they will not have a lot of passing attempts in this game.
The leaks in the Steelers D are up the middle against the run and also against the tight end position because even guys like Austin Hooper can have career days against this unit. That said, getting the tight ends more involved along with a big dose of Joe Mixon are both terrible for Green. This game smells like we need to hammer the under on the 52.5 projected point total.
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $6,700 vs. TB
It’s a really tasty matchup this week, and Ridley has put up a lot of fantasy points this season. He also has six more receiving touchdowns than Julio Jones. I think that paradigm shifts towards a heavy Jones game this week. He has not only smashed the Bucs in his career with 10 career scores, but this is the last team he’s scored against. Again, the matchup is ridiculously good…but if I’m going with a secondary WR for the Falcons, I’m going to spend down for Mohammed Sanu instead at $900 less. If Sanu doesn’t play with his hip injury, then you can void most of these thoughts.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): $6,200 @ MIN
There will still be people who play Fitz based on name recognition. Some will see how poor the Vikings pass defense has been (26th DVOA and 31st in yards per pass) and may think it’s “sneaky” getting exposure to the Cardinals pass catchers. Sneaky = foolish. The Vikings defense is very likely to progress closer to their 2018 campaign, and it starts against this atrocious Arizona offense. They’ve looked a little better since Josh Rosen was named the starting QB, but I’m still staying away. Old man Fitzgerald is also battling hamstring and back injuries, and that’s not something I’m interested in on the road in Minnesota. Even if he is ruled out, stay away from Christian Kirk ($5,400) as well.
Jordan Reed (WAS): $6,200 vs. CAR
When playing a TE, you have to think about who has the best chance of getting into the end zone as those who do consistently finish as a top-10 player at the position. That said, we’re starved of viable plays at the position this week and have to either eat the chalk or dive deeper. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a main slate where the tight end position is such a wasteland. The two highest-priced options are OK, but likely not worth their salaries. After that, it gets gross in a hurry. Reed is probably the worst based on his price. In a game where Washington was blown out and had to throw a lot, he saw just two targets last week. He’s averaged 5.5 targets per game this season, and that’s not nearly enough to pay over $6,000. I wish we could fade the entire position this week.
Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.