Wednesday is my busiest day of the week because I’m spending hours doing research and discovering value for this very article. However, besides Sunday (for obvious reasons), Wednesday is also my favorite day of the week. This is how I know that fantasy football is more than just a hobby for me. I look forward to writing this article, even if sometimes it can get a little tedious. I genuinely enjoy making my own predictions and giving all of you advice each and every week.
Think about how rare it is for somebody’s busiest day of the week to also be their favorite one. Students dread going to school on their busiest day of classes. Restaurant employees hate working on Saturday nights. That’s the beauty of writing about fantasy sports. It really doesn’t feel like work. I’ve been religiously following sports for as long as I could walk, so I couldn’t imagine myself doing anything else. Every week is a chance to do what I love to do, and share the information that I have way too much of in my head. I can’t wait to see what the rest of this season has in store.
Last week’s results (point values are for full-point PPR):
QB: Derek Carr – 7.3
RB: Dion Lewis – 22.2
RB: Aaron Jones – 8.6
WR: Michael Crabtree – 6.2
WR: Danny Amendola – 9.7
TE: Chris Herndon – 10.2
Rule number one: never recommend Derek Carr again. Rule number two: obey rule number one at all costs. That is all. Time for Week 10.
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Quarterback
Andy Dalton (CIN): $5,800 vs. NO
It is a little concerning that Andy Dalton won’t have A.J. Green, but this matchup still has the highest over/under on the Week 10 slate. The Bengals don’t have anyone capable of slowing down Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara, so Dalton should have plenty of catching up to do. The Saints have given up an average of 23.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last three weeks, so the matchup is really nothing to be scared of.
Although Green will miss this game (and reportedly more), John Ross is returning this week from a groin injury, so that should at least make up for some of the loss. Dalton has been throwing the ball well, has a good matchup, and is playing in a game with shootout potential. Don’t overthink it.
Running Backs
Jalen Richard (OAK): $4,800 vs. LAC
This one seemed like a no-brainer when I dug into the research, because the Chargers have been giving up all sorts of production through the air to running backs this year. Check out these lines over the last four weeks: Mike Davis 7-42, Dion Lewis 6-64, Duke Johnson 4-73, Jalen Richard 6-53. That last name sounds familiar doesn’t it? Keep in mind that these stats only represent receptions and receiving yards, meaning Richard doesn’t even need to carry the ball this week to be useful.
Oakland exploited LA’s weakness in their first matchup, and it’s clear that the Chargers haven’t done anything to rectify the issue since. The DraftKings PPR format rewards players with skill sets exactly like the one Richard boasts. He’s a solid, cheap play at running back this week.
Isaiah Crowell (NYJ): $4,200 vs. BUF
I used Crowell in a re-draft league of mine last week against Miami’s bottom-of-the-barrel run defense, and was very surprised to see him only accrue 60 yards on 14 touches. You’d think that would deter me from recommending him this week, but I actually really like his situation again. Buffalo has been giving up some pretty huge running back performances over the past few weeks. This is mostly due to the fact that their offense cannot put any points on the board, meaning opposing running backs are benefiting from a positive game script. Buffalo currently has no idea who’s going to start for them at quarterback this week, so I’d say Crowell should benefit as well. The Bills have given up an average of 25.6 PPR points per game over the past three weeks to backfield touch leaders. Although Elijah McGuire looked good last week in a change of pace role, the expected game script in this one should favor Crowell. If he doesn’t perform this week, you can probably give up on him altogether.
Wide Receivers
DeVante Parker (MIA): $4,200 at GB
Last week was rough for the Miami passing attack, but I’m expecting a bit of a bounce back. After averaging 286.7 passing yards per game in his first three starts, Brock Osweiler only threw for 139 yards last week, which obviously hurt the production of his surrounding weapons. Somebody from this Miami receiver group is bound to have a good week, and it looks like it has to be Parker by default. The Packers have given up an average of 21.7 PPR points per game over the last three weeks to primary perimeter receivers. That pretty much leaves us to decide between Parker and Kenny Stills. Stills has been bothered by a groin injury recently and has still only practiced in a limited fashion so far this week. His 49 percent snap share last week was his lowest of the season, so Parker is definitely the safer of the two. I’m not saying Parker is a surefire lock, but there’s definitely some production to be had against this Green Bay secondary. With all the injuries Miami has faced this year, Parker has a chance to produce simply because he’s the last man standing.
Antonio Callaway (CLE): $4,000 vs. ATL
Atlanta’s defense has been wide receiver heaven this year, and Callaway is the cheapest way to take advantage of that this week. The Falcons have given up an average of 19.1 PPR points per game to primary perimeter receivers over the past seven weeks. Although it’s definitely not a clear situation, Callaway is probably the best bet to see the most perimeter targets this week for Cleveland. Callaway has at least been serviceable recently, finding the end zone in Week 8, and then eclipsing 50 receiving yards last week. He’s likely to see five or more targets this week, which should be enough to return value against the Falcons. It’s only a matter of time before Baker Mayfield starts finding his groove, as he’s too talented not to. The struggling Browns offense needs a get-right game, and the Atlanta defense provides that opportunity.
Tight End
Ben Watson (NO): $3,400 at CIN
I remember thinking earlier in the season how it was surprising that Watson hadn’t scored yet. It was only a matter of time. He’s now scored in two of his last three games,and provided at least 15.2 PPR points in each of those two. A matchup with Cincinnati this week gives him a good chance to keep the momentum rolling. The Bengals have given up at least 13.8 PPR points to each of the past three tight ends they’ve faced. The Saints have struggled to find success at the wide receiver position this season outside of Michael Thomas, which is why Watson is third on the team in targets. They went out and signed Dez Bryant on Wednesday morning, but he’s not likely to be very involved in his first game, if he even plays at all. Chances are, Watson will have a sizable role in the offense for at least one more week, and he has the matchup to take advantage.
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
