FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 10
In this week’s DraftKings GPP Lineup Advice piece I note that the three-man stack in that particular article plays well here, so I advise checking that piece out and noting such. The team below, however, features a three-man stack I like a pinch better at FanDuel. It, too, plays well at DraftKings, though. The quarterback/wide receiver/wide receiver stack has big upside that’s fairly affordable with neither of the receivers checking in as a top-10 salary option at the position and the quarterback checking in as the fifth-most expensive option at his position. The affordability of the stack allows for some big spending on this team’s top running back and tight end. The team is rounded out by a pair of electric backs with plus pass-catching skills and cheap price tags, a rookie wideout with huge upside, and a D/ST playing at home as a double-digit point favorite.
Tom Brady (NE): $8,300 at Titans
Brady and Co. are 6.5-point favorites with a team over/under total of 26.5 points, according to Pinnacle. Sony Michel is expected to play this week, but the Patriots may still opt to lean on the passing attack against the Titans for a couple of reasons. First, they might not want to overwork their banged-up rookie back. Second, passing against the Titans is the path of least resistance.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Titans 16th defending the run but just 24th defending the pass. Case in point, in last year’s playoff game against the Titans, Brady attempted 53 passes and their backs carried the ball 23 times. Tennessee’s changed their coaching staff, defensive personnel has changed, and the gap in rush defense (seventh at FO in 2017) and pass defense (24th at FO in 2017) has shrunk a bit this year, but we’ve at least seen offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ willingness to adjust his play calling to exploit the weaknesses of the opposition.
Brady isn’t having one of his best seasons by any stretch, but he’s playing well, and he’s been especially good over his last five games. During that five-game stretch, he’s completed 68.7% of his passes, averaged 315.2 passing yards per game, and threw eight touchdowns against three interceptions. Brady’s hot stretch coincides with the return of a forthcoming stack partner.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,800 at Bengals
Kamara was instrumental last week in helping the Saints beat the previously unbeaten Rams. The second-year back rushed for 82 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, and he added four receptions for 34 yards and a score. All three of his touchdowns came in the red zone, and according to Lineups, Kamara’s 48 redzone touches this year is second only to Todd Gurley’s 57, and it’s a full 20 clear of a two-man tie for third place between James Conner and Kareem Hunt.
This week, Kamara has a finger-licking good matchup with the Bengals. FO ranks Cincinnati 27th defending the run and 28th defending running backs in the passing game. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bengals have allowed six rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns to running backs this year. The four receiving scores are the fourth-most allowed to running backs this year, and I fully expect the Saints to use Kamara as a receiving weapon in the red zone against the Bengals this week. Kamara’s a bit underpriced, checking in at under $9,000, so there’s no reason to get sticker shock with him this week.
Dion Lewis (TEN): $5,800 vs. Patriots
Lewis actually correlates nicely to the three-man Patriots stack since he’s the receiving back for the opposition. The former Patriot has been much better than backfield mate Derrick Henry, and Lewis should benefit from the Titans serving as 6.5-point underdogs and likely needing to play catch up. Furthermore, he matches up better against a Patriots defense that ranks eighth at FO defending the run, 18th defending the pass, and 25th defending running backs in the passing game. New England has allowed the fifth-most targets (74), is tied for the seventh-most receptions (53) allowed, sits alone having allowed the seventh-most receiving yards (463), and is tied for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns allowed (three) to running backs this year. Lewis should be leaned on early and often against his former club, and he’s in good form after totaling 155 yards from scrimmage on 13 carries and six receptions in Week 7 before the Titans’ Week 8 bye and piling up 122 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown reception on 19 carries and four receptions in Week 9.
Julian Edelman (NE): $7,300 at Titans
Edelman is the stack partner I teased in Brady’s write-up. Tom Terrific’s recent heater coincides with the return of Edelman. The veteran receiver has been targeted seven or more times in all five games, and he’s caught four or more passes in each game. Edelman’s surpassed 50 yards receiving in four of five games, and he’s scored a touchdown in two games. Furthermore, he’s also carried the ball five times for 48 yards and completed a pass for 37 yards for good measure. He’s been an especially integral part of the offense the last two weeks reaching double-digit targets in back-to-back games and posting lines of 9-104-0 with two carries for 13 yards in Week 8 and 6-71-0 with two carries for 28 yards and a 37-yard completion in Week 9.
The 32-year-old receiver’s ceiling is enhanced by heavy redzone usage. He’s been targeted in the redzone in all five games he’s played, received multiple redzone targets in three of five games, and his average of 2.0 redzone targets per game, according to Lineups, is the third highest among receivers. The Titans are tied for the sixth-most receiving touchdowns (11) allowed to receivers this year entering Week 10, so I like Edelman’s odds of reaching pay dirt this week a lot.
Josh Gordon (NE): $6,700 at Titans
Don’t look now, but Gordon is coming on strong. He’s reached or surpassed 100 yards receiving in two of his last three games, and last week was a true blowup effort with a 5-130-1 line on 10 targets. He played 80% of New England’s offensive snaps last week, and he’s emerged as the No. 2 receiver to Edelman in the offense. Gordon’s also the best bet for some deep shots. Gordon ranks tied for 10th in Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY) with the Patriots at 14.8 TAY, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB): $5,400 vs. Dolphins
Gordon’s not the only deep threat on this roster. Valdes-Scantling’s 12.4 TAY is tied for 27th among qualified receivers and tight ends. His matchup with the Dolphins is quite favorable, as NFL.com Fantasy Managing Editor Graham Barfield points out in this tweet.
MVS has scored a touchdown or surpassed 100 yards receiving in four straight contests. During that four-game stretch, he has per-game averages of 6.75 targets, 3.75 receptions, and 79.25 receiving yards with a couple of touchdowns. As a cherry on top, he should have the best matchup among Green Bay’s receivers. Davante Adams projects to draw shadow coverage from Xavien Howard, leaving MVS drawing some combination of Bobby McCain and Torry McTyer. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks McCain 86th and McTyer 101st out of 111 qualified corners.
Travis Kelce (KC): $8,000 vs. Cardinals
Among tight ends this year, Kelce ranks second in targets (79), receptions (51), and touchdowns (six), and he leads the way in receiving yards per game (82.3). There are only three tight ends besting 75 yards receiving per game and only five averaging more than 60 receiving yards per game. Kelce’s a stud at a position lacking top-flight talent, so I’ll gladly find the cap space to squeeze him onto this roster.
Duke Johnson (CLE): $5,600 vs. Falcons
Johnson’s coming off of a huge game in Cleveland’s first since firing Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens wisely used his talented pass-catching back in a plus matchup last week against the Chiefs, and he draws an even better matchup this week against the Falcons. Atlanta’s allowed the most targets (94), receptions (76), and receiving yards (658) to running backs this year while also coughing up three receiving touchdowns to them. FO ranks the Falcons 20th defending running backs in the passing game. Toss in that the Browns are five-point underdogs and likely to be playing catch up, and I’d expect Johnson to be busy right out of the chute until the game’s final whistle.
Los Angeles Rams D/ST (LAR): $3,900 vs. Seahawks
The Rams are 8-1 primarily because of their offense, and not their leaky defense that FO ranks 16th. They’ve also already served up 31 points and 190 yards rushing to the Seahawks in Week 5. That game was in Seattle, though, and the Seahawks opened the scoring in that one and kept it close for the entirety of the contest. The way the game unfolded allowed the Seahawks to deploy their run-heavy offensive attack. The Rams were sizable favorites in that contest, but they’re big favorites (10 points) this time as well. If their high-powered offense is able to stake them to a lead early, there is massive scoring potential, and that’s what it’s all about in GPPs.
Seattle’s offensive line is receiving a ton of praise for their play this year, but it remains a major liability in pass protection. FO ranks Seattle’s offensive line 27th in pass protection, and they credit them with the sixth-highest Adjusted Sack Rate (9.6%). The Rams’ defense ranks middle of the pack in sacks and sack percentage, but they bolstered their pass rush at the NFL’s trade deadline by trading for edge rusher Dante Fowler. If Seattle’s forced to air it out early and often in catch-up mode, the Rams have the defensive pieces to pile up fantasy points.