There are often times during drafts where my rankings may say one thing and I choose to do another. Why is that? Am I being disingenuous to readers? Did I have a change of heart and not adjust my rankings like I should have? No, what I’m doing is drafting off my tier list.
Why does one have a tier list and how is that different from rankings? Well, I’m glad you asked. There was a livestream I hosted on our YouTube channel about a month ago where I navigated my way through a draft, talking about who I targeted and why. There’s skill involved in building a roster and understanding how to construct a well-balanced team. I’d missed out on the top-tier options that had high upside, so I’d wound up with a lot of high-floor players but was lacking the week-winning upside needed to win a championship. Because of that, I went with some players in the middle rounds who offered more upside, but also more volatility.
By showing you this tier list, it should help you understand the importance of adjusting your mindset on the fly. I’ll explain the rounds that each tier should be targeted in, as well as the impact they’d have on your roster construction. These tiers are based on half-PPR settings in a 12-team league, as it gives us the widest range of usability in leagues.
Here are the links to the other positional tier lists:
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tier One (Round 1-2)
Yes, he’s in a tier of his own. Did you know that if Kelce were labeled as a wide receiver last year, he would’ve finished as the No. 9 receiver in front of JuJu Smith-Schuster? Now add in the fact that he plays the most volatile position in fantasy and you have yourself a tight end worth a borderline first-round pick.
Tier Two (Round 3)
We often talk about the effect that backup quarterbacks have on players, but it didn’t affect these two, did it? Both Kittle and Ertz had to play with backups for much of the year, though it didn’t stop Kittle from breaking the all-time yardage record for tight ends or Ertz from breaking the all-time target record for tight ends. Both have had the options around them upgraded this offseason, which could lower their ceilings, but they’re both worth third-round picks at a volatile position.
Tier Three (Rounds 5-6)
O.J. Howard
Evan Engram
Hunter Henry
If you miss out on the elite tiers of tight ends, this is your last chance to get one you’ll want in your lineup every week. Howard has averaged 11.5 yards per target over his two years in the league, which is the best all-time. He’s also scored 11 touchdowns on just 87 career targets. He’s one of the rare tight ends who can take a 10-yard dump-off to the house. Engram should have a massive target floor/ceiling this year with the lack of receivers in the Giants offense, while Henry walks into the offense without Antonio Gates syphoning targets. If you don’t get one of the tight ends in the top three tiers, it’s probably best to wait at the position.
Tier Four (Rounds 8-10)
Eric Ebron
David Njoku
Vance McDonald
Jared Cook
In case you haven’t heard, Ebron is going to regress quite a bit. Not only would he have regressed if the team remained the same, but the Colts added Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell. The mistake most are mistaking is to think he completely falls off the map. This is still a high-scoring offense and he proved worth to the team last year. Njoku is still just 23 years old so it’s tough to predict a breakout, especially now that Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry will account for a lot of targets. McDonald has the starting job for the Steelers and there’s plenty of targets to go around. If he stays healthy, he could finish top-six at the position. Cook is interesting because he plays with Drew Brees now, but he’s not getting anywhere near the 101 targets he got with the Raiders last year.
Tier Five (Rounds 10-12)
Trey Burton
Jimmy Graham
Delanie Walker
Austin Hooper
Jordan Reed
Jack Doyle
This is the “discounted TE1” grouping of tight ends. If Burton can stay on the field, he’s practically a TE1 by default, as he was last year. Graham finished as the TE14 in a season Aaron Rodgers threw just 25 touchdowns (and just two to Graham). That won’t happen again. Walker has been a top-12 staple for years, but have age/injuries finally caught up? The Titans have also beefed-up their group of receivers this offseason. Hooper quietly finished as the TE6 last year but the Falcons also passed a lot more than they would’ve had their defense been healthy. Reed produces like a TE1 when on the field, but can he stay on the field? Doyle out-snapped and out-targeted Eric Ebron when they were both playing last year, but the touchdowns distorted the way fantasy owners view them. Doyle is coming off a hip injury at 29 years old though, so nothing is guaranteed.
Tier Six (Rounds 12-16)
Mark Andrews
T.J. Hockenson
Dallas Goedert
The flier tier of tight ends who you hope to breakout this year. I want to be clear about this tier… I wouldn’t draft any of them hoping they’ll be my starter all year. If you’re waiting this long, you should be streaming the position; playing the best matchup every week. Many think Andrews can breakout this year, though I’m not one of them. In Lamar Jackson‘s seven starts last year, he didn’t have more than 14 completions in any game. Andrews is talented but the volume isn’t there and they have a much more talented group of pass-catchers this year. Hockenson is a rookie and we know better than to trust rookie tight ends on a weekly basis. Goedert has breakout potential if anything happens to Zach Ertz, but he has streaming potential at times, too.
The Remaining Tight Ends
If you miss out on all these tight ends (which is unlikely), don’t worry about it. You’re going to be able to stream the position and find one on the waiver wire who’ll do for each week. Don’t forget, George Kittle went outside the top 10 rounds last year, Eric Ebron wasn’t drafted in most leagues, and Austin Hooper was just a mediocre late-round guy. There’ll be guys like this once again in 2019.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
