Last week in this space, I committed the cardinal sin of fantasy football: believing in Andy Dalton. Or maybe the mistake was believing in the Bengals’ putrid offensive line, which had a historically bad performance against the Steelers. In any case: Whoops! Thankfully my picks for undervalued RB, WR, and TE each outperformed the more highly-ranked players I named as overvalued, so it wasn’t all bad.
As always, my Week 5 picks for over and undervalued players are based on FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for Half PPR formats. If you like what you see, reach out to me on Twitter @andrew_seifter, and I’ll try to help you out with any start-sit questions you might have. Or we can just vent together about streaming Andy freakin’ Dalton.
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Quarterback
Undervalued: Kyler Murray (ARI)
ECR: QB9
My Rank: QB7
With a subpar 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio through his first four games, it feels like Murray is having a rough rookie year, but he’s still producing borderline QB1 numbers. That’s what happens when you’re dropping back to pass 42 times each week — not to mention rushing for 28 yards per game — in Kliff Kingsbury’s high-tempo offense. We still haven’t seen anything close to Murray’s best, but his schedule is about to get a lot easier, beginning with this week’s trip to Cincinnati. The lowly Bengals made Mason Rudolph look good last week, and let Josh Allen run all over them in Week 3. Kyler may still have a lot to learn about playing quarterback in the NFL, but he can afford to make some rookie mistakes and still produce high-end fantasy numbers against Cincinnati.
Overvalued: Dak Prescott (DAL)
ECR: QB8
My Rank: QB12
After getting off to a blistering start to the season, Prescott’s yardage and touchdown production has steadily declined each week, culminating in just 223 scoreless yards last week in New Orleans. At the same time, Dak’s year-to-date numbers are inflated by the fact that he’s faced four of the bottom-six defenses in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs (NYG, WAS, MIA, and NO). This week, he gets his toughest challenge of the young season, facing off with a Packers defense that is allowing just 208 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game. Getting Michael Gallup back this week should help in theory, but it remains to be seen if he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. Prescott still possesses plenty of upside when he gets plus matchups, but he should be viewed as a fringe QB1 this week against Green Bay.
Running Back
Undervalued: Devin Singletary (BUF)
ECR: RB48
My Rank: RB36
With 155 yards and a score on his first 15 touches, Singletary’s NFL career was off to a heck of a start before he exited Week 2 with a hamstring injury that cost him the next two games. The rookie is tentatively expected to suit up this week in Tennessee, and if he does, you could do worse in your RB3/flex spot if you’re scrambling for options. There’s certainly some risk involved in relying on Singletary, given his uncertain workload vis a vis Frank Gore, but the upside that Singletary presents is also quite clear. And while the Titans are a formidable matchup, the Falcons got their running backs going against Tennessee last week via the passing game, which would seem to favor Singletary’s skill set over Gore’s. Unlike most of the other backs in his ECR neighborhood, Singletary has a real shot at leading his backfield in touches on Sunday.
Overvalued: Wayne Gallman (NYG)
ECR: RB21
My Rank: RB26
Last week Gallman rewarded fantasy managers who burned through their FAAB to acquire his services, piling up 118 yards and two touchdowns against Washington. Gallman’s usage in the passing game was certainly promising, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that it was a favorable matchup, and he still averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Concerns about Gallman’s talent (or lack thereof) shouldn’t be completely thrown out the window after one good fantasy game, particularly with a far tougher matchup against the Vikings on tap. Aaron Jones had a nice game against the Vikings in Week 2, but Minnesota shut down Devonta Freeman, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery the other three weeks. Barring a miraculously quick return this week by Saquon Barkley, Gallman’s volume alone makes him an appealing RB3/flex option, but he hasn’t yet earned RB2 treatment for such a difficult matchup.
Wide Receiver
Undervalued: Julian Edelman (NE)
ECR: WR15
My Rank: WR10
Edelman didn’t do much at all last week, but that was to be expected while facing a lockdown Bills D at less than 100 percent. He should be healthier this week, and he’s still clearly the first option in the Patriots’ passing game. This week he gets a Washington defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers through four weeks. Washington has allowed at least one wideout to top 70 yards in all four games, and they join Miami and Arizona as the only three teams to have already allowed 10+ passing scores. Edelman’s floor this week is incredibly high, and his ceiling isn’t bad, either. He’s a bonafide WR1 in leagues that award 0.5 points or more per reception.
Overvalued: Sterling Shepard (NYG)
ECR: WR24
My Rank: WR30
The Vikings haven’t been quite as tough against the pass as they have against the run, but Davante Adams is the only receiver who has topped 80 yards against them, so this is still far from an ideal matchup for Shepard. Meanwhile, Golden Tate returns to the fold for New York this week, meaning Shepard will have greater competition for targets and could be forced to move out of the slot, meaning he’ll need to run an entirely different route tree than he typically has in the past. And if Shepard does indeed move outside, it’ll also likely mean he’ll be blanketed by the Vikings’ best corner, Xavier Rhodes. Shepard has shown a good rapport with Daniel Jones, so his arrow is pointing up in the long run. But I have trouble trusting him as a WR2 for a difficult matchup when his role in the offensive could be in flux.
Tight End
Undervalued: Eric Ebron (IND)
ECR: TE11
My Rank: TE10
As usual, there are few slam-dunk plays at the tight end position once you get outside the top eight or nine every-week starters. The only one I have ranked significantly higher than the consensus this week is Gerald Everett, so I was happy to see him break out for 136 yards last night. As for Ebron, his stock has taken a hit with Andrew Luck’s retirement and Jack Doyle’s return, and last week was the latest example of him hurting his own cause with drops. Still, he has managed to top 45 receiving yards in back-to-back games, and his red-zone prowess is well-documented. With the Colts 11-point underdogs against Kansas City, it’s reasonable to assume that Jacoby Brissett will be dropping back to pass a lot in the second half, boosting Ebron’s chances of hauling in a touchdown for the third time this season.
Overvalued: Ricky Seals-Jones (CLE)
ECR: TE25
My Rank: TE27
Seals-Jones popped in the box score last week with 82 yards and a touchdown, but the fantasy industry isn’t buying it — and neither am I. Demetrius Harris played more snaps and ran more routes than Seals-Jones last week, so it is far from clear that Seals-Jones is emerging as the TE1 in Cleveland, let alone a TE1 for your fantasy squad. The most likely scenario is that he and Harris will continue to share the job while David Njoku is sidelined, rendering neither one a reliable fantasy asset.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
