I must say I feel pretty good about last week’s picks for undervalued and overvalued players, even though it didn’t always translate to the players’ actual fantasy production.

Last Sunday’s results backed up my belief that Kyle Rudolph is droppable and that Aaron Rodgers is no longer a matchup-proof every-week QB1 (and no, Rodgers dicing up the Eagles’ atrocious secondary last night didn’t change my mind). Aaron Jones ended up outproducing Kerryon Johnson in Week 3 by scoring two short touchdowns, but Jones’ usage declined and Kerryon’s increased — just as I predicted. Of course, whether that continues may now depend on Jamaal Williams‘ health.

T.J. Hockenson flopped again, but he nearly scored two touchdowns, hinting at his week-winning upside. So really, my biggest swing-and-miss was at wide receiver, where Curtis definitively beat down Deebo in the “Battle of the Samuels.” It looks safe to trust Curtis as a borderline WR2/3 going forward after Kyle Allen‘s performance last week, while Kyle Shanahan’s commitment to a true WR rotation means Deebo is not a must-hold over the 49ers’ bye week.

But enough about last week! As always, my undervalued and overvalued picks for Week 4 are based on FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. If I don’t address your most pressing start/sit question here, hit me up on Twitter @andrew_seifter.

Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup advice

Quarterback

Undervalued: Andy Dalton (CIN)
ECR: QB19
My Rank: QB15

Dalton is an every-week starter in two-QB/superflex formats, but at this point, he’s only an enticing streaming option in single-QB formats when the matchup is appealing. I think this Monday night’s matchup against the Steelers qualifies if you’re scrambling at the position. Dalton wasn’t incredible last week, but 250 yards and two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing) is hardly awful, and it came against arguably the best pass defense in the NFL (Buffalo). In the two previous games, Dalton looked like a player who was thriving under Sean McVay disciple Zac Taylor’s offensive scheme, throwing for 300+ yards and multiple TDs in both contests. The Steelers have given up the second-most passing yards and fifth-most passing TDs through the first three weeks, and while the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick should help some, it’s safe to say this isn’t your parents’/grandparents’ Iron Curtain defense.

Overvalued: Matthew Stafford (DET)
ECR: QB13
My Rank: QB16

I certainly get the appeal of streaming Stafford this week, but a few words of caution are in order. The case for Stafford is pretty simple: Chiefs-Lions has the highest projected scoreline of the week, and as 6.5 point underdogs, it’s easy to imagine Stafford having to throw a ton of passes to try to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. But you could make the same case for any QB facing the Chiefs, and yet Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson have both underwhelmed against Kansas City over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Stafford looked flat-out bad for most of last week’s contest, throwing for just 201 yards and a single touchdown in what should have been a layup against a very leaky Eagles secondary. I’d rather trust Dalton or Josh Allen, even though Allen has a tough matchup with the Patriots.

Running Back

Undervalued: Josh Jacobs (OAK)
ECR: RB17
My Rank: RB11

Jacobs is coming off his least productive game of his young career, but the matchup with Minnesota was awful and he may not have been 100 percent. This week he should be healthier and has a much more favorable matchup against Indianapolis’ undersized defensive front, which is allowing 5.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs and has surrendered at least 94 scrimmage yards to Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Devonta Freeman so far. At the same time, the Raiders’ coaching staff is making noise about getting Jacobs more involved as a pass-catcher. The jury is still out on whether Jacobs will emerge as the bell-cow back fantasy owners were hoping for, but he should at least lose fewer snaps to Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington than he did at less than full health. And with this matchup, he may not need 25 touches to return RB1 value anyway.

Overvalued: Derrick Henry (TEN)
ECR: RB9
My Rank: RB15

I may die on this hill, but I just don’t see how Henry can be viewed as an every-week, matchup-proof RB1 given his current usage. Outside of the Browns inexcusably allowing him to scamper 75 yards into the end zone on a screen pass in Week 1, Henry has a total of three catches for 14 yards through three weeks. He played fewer snaps than Dion Lewis last week, and split the snaps right down the middle with Lewis in Week 2. Henry has certainly proven since the end of last season that he is capable of huge games, and that upside alone is enough to lock him in as a weekly RB2. But I still only consider him an RB1 in plus matchups, and that doesn’t apply this week. The Titans are four-point road underdogs against Atlanta, which could portend more Lewis and less Henry if Tennessee falls behind. And even if Henry does get a lot of carries, there is no guarantee of success against a Falcons front that is giving up just 3.6 yards per carry.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Tyrell Williams (OAK)
ECR: WR29
My Rank: WR22

I guess I like Raiders this week. Williams (three targets) took a major back seat to Darren Waller (14 targets) last week against the Vikings, but that was likely game plan-specific. With very limited competition for Derek Carr‘s affection, there should be plenty of targets for both Waller and Williams most weeks. And even in that relatively quiet game, Williams managed to find the end zone for the third straight game. This week’s matchup with the Colts looks tough on paper, but that is largely because Indianapolis got to face Tennessee’s anemic pass offense in Week 2. The Colts surrendered 120+ yards and a TD to Keenan Allen in Week 1 and Julio Jones in Week 3, and while Williams obviously isn’t in their class, he should be capable of returning WR2 value this week.

Overvalued: Josh Gordon (NE)
ECR: WR26
My Rank: WR34

I like Gordon as a WR2 most weeks now that Antonio Brown is out of the picture, but not at Buffalo. The Bills had the number one pass defense last season, and they’ve been just as tough to throw against so far this year. As New England’s primary perimeter receiver, Gordon will likely face shadow coverage from Bills corner Tre’Davious White, who held him to 42 scoreless yards in their sole matchup last season. Julian Edelman (ribs) is on track to play, and James White will also be back this week, so Gordon owners can’t count on pure volume to make up for the tough opponent. You may have a better option for your WR3/flex spot this week.

Tight End

Undervalued: Tyler Eifert (CIN)
ECR: TE17
My Rank: TE14

The tight end position gets real ugly in a hurry when you get outside the top-11. As someone who owns George Kittle in multiple spots, Vernon Davis is my first choice for a bye week fill-in, with Eifert as my fallback. I made the case for Eifert in this space in Week 1, but the gist of it is that you’re betting on a touchdown reception. Eifert is tied with Tyler Boyd for the Bengals’ team lead in red-zone targets, and while we’re only talking about two targets apiece, Eifert is a player with a 13-touchdown season on his resume. I’ve already outlined why I think Andy Dalton could have a nice week, and it’s reasonable to anticipate/hope that Eifert can get in on the action against a Steelers defense that surrendered two touchdowns to Will Dissly in Week 2.

Overvalued: Delanie Walker (TEN)
ECR: TE7
My Rank: TE11

Walker made my overvalued list in Week 2, and he could probably fit in this space most weeks. It’s true that the Titans may throw a bit more than usual against Atlanta, as I explained in my rationale for fading Derrick Henry, but that doesn’t mean Marcus Mariota is going to be terribly effective doing it. I get the appeal of Walker as a low-end TE1 due to his high floor, but I just don’t see the value in banking on Tennessee pass-catchers, regardless of matchup. I’d rather gamble on guys with more upside like Austin Hooper, O.J. Howard, Will Dissly and, you guessed it, T.J. Hockenson. #ShamelessHockensonApologist

View your league’s top available players with My Playbook

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.