I looked at players on the most playoff rosters yesterday, so let’s look at guys on the most playoff-missing rosters today. Before I begin, I’ll note that this stat can be somewhat misleading. The players who kept the most teams out of the playoffs probably got dropped before the end of the year (looking at you, Antonio Brown), so these numbers don’t tell the whole story. However, they do show us the big-name guys people were too scared to move on from, which may have cost their owners a chance at their fantasy championship. And like I did yesterday, I’ll try to identify what each player’s appearance on this list can teach us for next season.
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Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
99% ownership rate, 51% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Rodgers disappointed his owners in a big way this season. Although he had a handful of good performances, he finished as just the overall QB10. Sure, that’s a QB1 performance, but it wasn’t a good return on his QB3 ADP and his 50th overall ADP. If you sunk a fifth-round pick into Rodgers, it’s not a big surprise that you missed the playoffs, especially if you kept him in your starting lineup. Rodgers’ disappointing season is yet another reminder not to draft pocket quarterbacks that early in fantasy drafts. They don’t have the extra floor from rushing, and you can almost always get better value in later rounds or off the waiver wire. For example, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were stellar late-round picks who could run, while Ryan Tannehill strung together weeks of QB1 performances off waivers.
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady (NE): 92% ownership rate, 51% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (LAR)
100% ownership rate, 55% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Before the season, Les Snead said to expect limited snaps for Gurley. Until late in the season, that held true — Gurley was averaging just 13.37 touches per game until his Week 8 bye. Although he managed to score seven times in that span, he topped 100 all-purpose yards just once. While Gurley’s RB14 finish in half PPR wasn’t horrible, that’s not a good return on his RB9 ADP and 14th overall ADP. First-round picks define your fantasy season, and if you spent one on Gurley, you were likelier to miss the fantasy playoffs than to make them. The lesson? Going into next season, if a coach or general manager tells you that they’re planning to limit a player’s usage, don’t bank on them to carry your fantasy lineup.
Joe Mixon (CIN)
100% ownership rate, 54% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Mixon actually finished his season on a high note. Unfortunately, it was too little too late for most of his fantasy owners, as over half of them missed the playoffs. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Mixon was the overall RB32, and he was averaging just 8.8 points per game (PPG). His disappointing value stemmed from limited opportunities. New head coach Zac Taylor gave Mixon 15 or fewer carries in all but two of his first eight games, and he only pivoted to the running game after benching Andy Dalton. That’s not what you want from the RB11 with a 19th overall ADP. Although he wasn’t a first-round pick, there’s still a good chance he sunk your fantasy season. The lesson from Mixon is to pay attention to new coaches — we knew Taylor relied heavily on the passing game going into the year, and while he eventually adapted his offense to his best playmaker (Mixon), it took him a long time to do so.
Honorable Mentions: Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 100% ownership rate, 53% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams; Sony Michel (NE): 92% ownership rate, 53% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)
99% ownership rate, 56% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
According to year-end ownership numbers, Beckham was the guy most likely to ruin your playoff chances. He went 13th overall in most drafts, slotting in as the WR5 going into the year as everyone expected the Browns to compete for a playoff spot. That never came to fruition, however, and the Browns finished with a losing record and fired head coach Freddie Kitchens. Baker Mayfield’s sophomore slump, an injury, and attitude issues yielded a WR26 finish for Beckham, and he ended up 13 positions below teammate and WR13 Jarvis Landry. If you owned Beckham, chances are that you held out hope that he would turn things around until it was far too late to sell him. You might’ve kept starting him, too, because of your lack of alternatives. Beckham’s case reminds us to be more careful with players on new teams, not to trust inexperienced head coaches or sophomore quarterbacks, and, of course, never to trust the factory of sadness known as the Cleveland Browns.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
88% ownership rate, 55% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Smith-Schuster wasn’t much better than Beckham, although he had some excuses. He went down with an injury late in the year and lost his starting quarterback in Week 2, and neither Mason Rudolph nor Devlin Hodges could help Smith-Schuster put up a solid fantasy season. The Steeler turned his WR6 and 16th overall ADP into a WR66 finish, catching just 42 passes for 552 yards and three scores. I suspect that Smith-Schuster may have ruined more seasons than Beckham, but because he got dropped by some of his owners before they missed the playoffs, his ownership rate among playoff-missing teams appears lower. There’s not much to learn from Smith-Schuster’s 2019 because of Pittsburgh’s bad luck this year. We had every reason to expect big things from him even without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, but Roethlisberger’s freak early-season injury got in the way. He’s a reminder that fantasy football is a game of chance.
Honorable Mentions: Emmanuel Sanders (SF): 98% ownership rate, 52% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams; Adam Thielen (MIN): 99% ownership rate, 51% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Tight End
Jared Cook (NO)
97% ownership rate, 47% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
The numbers at tight end are much less clear than those at the other positions. While it’s evident that big names like Beckham and Rodgers hurt their fantasy owners, no tight end had an ownership rate among playoff-missing teams above 50%. That’s likely because of how thin and streamable the position is, as only 10 tight ends finished with ADPs in the top 100. Mid-round busts at tight end like O.J. Howard (54% ownership rate, 28% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams) and Evan Engram (77% ownership rate, 37% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams) were more easily dropped than guys like Beckham and Rodgers, so we end up with Cook as our representative for the position.
That said, Cook was still a disappointment this year, as his TE7 finish depended upon some late-season heroics. He got hurt mid-season, but upon his return in Week 10, he managed to catch seven touchdowns. Although that’s technically still a return on his TE7 ADP, his best weeks came during the fantasy playoffs, which wouldn’t have been much help for his owners struggling without their tight end. Cook’s mediocre 2019, along with Engram’s and Howard’s, suggests that it’s best to either invest in a tight end early or to plan on streaming one — and not to take one in the middle rounds.
Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz (PHI): 100% ownership rate, 46% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
Flex
Devonta Freeman (ATL)
99% ownership rate, 54% ownership rate among playoff-missing teams.
It was a tough year to be an Atlanta Falcon. Dan Quinn’s team started the year at 1-7, and the negative game scripts certainly hurt Freeman’s production. Through that stretch, he was putting up just 11.5 PPG, which ranked 22nd among running backs. That’s not a good return on the second or third-round pick you would’ve spent on Freeman. The running back also missed a pair of games in the middle of the season, and while he finished as the RB16 after his Week 13 return, that wouldn’t have been much help to his fantasy owners still competing for playoff positioning. Had the Falcons gotten out to a better start, maybe Freeman would’ve finished higher among running backs. After all, Atlanta had just lost Tevin Coleman to free agency. Given how unpredictably bad the Falcons’ start to the season was, the lesson with Freeman might be to trade players on struggling teams while you have the chance.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
