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The NFL Draft is right around the corner, and it’s shaping up to be a real humdinger of a doozy.
With a completely different look and feel for (cough, cough) obvious reasons, one of the NFL’s grandest stages will be reduced to, well, we’re not exactly sure.
Logistical uncertainties aside, let’s try to get a better idea who will be drafted, where, and why.
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To create this list of NFL Draft risers and fallers, I mixed and matched input from two critical sources:
1. The gambling community at BettingPros, FanDuel Sportsbook, and elsewhere
How can we tell who’s rising and who’s falling? Show me the moneyline. I looked at some popular prop bets to see how the action’s been moving. If a player’s odds of being drafted improved, he went up the list.
2. NFL Consensus Mock Draft at FantasyPros
What are the experts saying? Again, the idea was simple but the work was tedious: First, measure current mock drafts against older ones. Then identify how player projections have evolved over time.
Now that you know where I’m coming from, let’s see what we’re working with.
Risers
Henry Ruggs III (WR – Alabama)
Which wide receiver will be the first off the board in April? That’s what Las Vegas oddsmakers and back-alley bookies are asking.
For the past month or so, the moneyline on Ruggs has been volatile. At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook has Ruggs at +270, which is much lower than previous lines of +600 and +900 back in March. Keep in mind that lower lines indicate likelier scenarios.
Ruggs is up against Jerry Jeudy (-125) and CeeDee Lamb (+180) as the first wide receiver to be taken, but if his line continues to drop, Ruggs’ draft stock will continue to rise.
Trevon Diggs (CB – Alabama)
According to NFL Draft prop bets, odds, and picks from experts at CBS Sports, cornerbacks figure to be a hot commodity in this year’s draft; the over-under on total cornerbacks being drafted in Round 1 is at 4.5.
What does this mean for Diggs?
Despite being in a crowded field of talented corners, Diggs could be one of the first three selected in Round 1. Our consensus rankings have Diggs going to the Saints with the 24th overall pick, which is up considerably from earlier projections that put Diggs at the very end of Round 1 and early Round 2.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – Wisconsin)
Are running backs worthy of first-round picks? The popular perception seems to say no, at least in this year’s draft (which is somewhat surprising when you look at how talented the crop of rookie rushers is).
At the time of this writing, the over-under on total running backs being drafted in Round 1 is 0.5, which means oddsmakers think that, at most, one running back will be taken on the first day of drafting.
So, who’s it going to be?
It’s not a lock by any means, but some signs point to Jonathan Taylor.
While D’Andre Swift could be a consideration of the Miami Dolphins with the 26th overall pick, our experts like Tennessee to snap up Taylor at the back end of the first round, a move that would add some much-needed depth behind Derrick Henry.
As the one-and-only running back projected to go in the first round, Jonathan Taylor is on the rise.
Fallers
Jordan Love (QB – Utah State)
Look, we all know Joe Burrow is going first overall to Cincinnati.
When it comes to Jordan Love, though, we’re seeing him fall behind other big-name quarterbacks such as and , both of whom you can add to the “draft risers” column.
While New England could take a hard look at the small-school standout from Utah State, which would be a very on-brand move for Bill Belichick & Co., taking a chance on Love in the first round sounds like a risky proposition at best.
Look for Jordan Love to slide into Round 2 of the NFL Draft where teams like Jacksonville or Tampa Bay could be suitable suitors for his gun-slinging services.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR – Colorado)
When the Buffalo Bills traded for Stefon Diggs in mid-March, the team forfeited its 22nd overall pick (among others). Why does this matter? Well, Shenault had been a heavily talked-about target for the Bills. Not anymore, though.
Not only have the Bills solidified their receiving corps, they got bounced out of the first round to do so. Even with a second-round selection in-hand, the Bills are less likely to spend it on a wide receiver than they were before.
When you take Shenault out of the running in Buffalo, his first-round hopes suddenly lie in the hands of the Green Bay Packers with the 30th overall pick. This is a bit of a long shot, though, as our consensus rankings have the Packers’ prioritizing defensive tackle and wide receiver in this position.
If you look at Mike Tagliere’s most recent mock draft, you’ll find the former Colorado Buffalo buffaloed; Mike’s got him headed to Baltimore at the end of the second round.
Isaiah Simmons (LB – Clemson)
According to our consensus mock draft, Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons is an 83% lock to punch his ticket to Carolina as the 7th overall selection in the NFL Draft.
However, speculation suggests that the New York Giants could also be targeting the six-foot-four, 238-pound prospect as high as 4th overall. Seems pretty high, right? So what makes him a draft faller?
Back in March, Mike Tagliere’s Mock Draft 2.0 projected Isaiah Simmons as a top-3 pick. While his “slide” down mock draft boards isn’t exactly precipitous, it does indicate a drop, and that qualifies him as a draft faller.
Sure, NFL experts consider Simmons to be a potential Pro Bowl-caliber player, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be drafted as high as some pundits initially thought.
Did your favorite prospect make the list? If not, which teams or players do you want to read more about? Let us know on Twitter. Remember, at FantasyPros, we do the research so you don’t have to.
Oh, and if you’re gambling on the NFL Draft, good luck!
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Jim Colombo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jim, check out his archive and follow him @WideRightNBlue.
