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As the countdown to draft day drops to single digits, it is important to take notice of the hype, or lack thereof, surrounding prospects as it can directly correlate to where they are selected. Timing is a huge part of the draft process. Being the hot name this time of year usually results in that player being taken early; maybe even earlier than people have been projecting. On the opposite end, being a name on the decline could result in a draft-night/weekend slide that catches many people off guard.
Throughout the rest of this article, we will look at five players who have been rising up rankings and mock drafts due to reports coming from teams and five players who sound like they may experience a longer wait time on draft night than many would have predicted just a few weeks ago.
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Risers
Henry Ruggs III (WR – Alabama)
Not often does a player who has consistently been in the top three see a rise as the draft comes down the home stretch, but due to the top end talent being WR3 in my rankings doesn’t keep you from building momentum as being the first receiver off the board. That is exactly what has happened with Ruggs.
When you look back on drafts you can see a lot of teams value traits that can’t be coached. Size and speed resulting in impressive separation on a consistent basis at the receiver position is hard to pass and that seems to be the word coming from teams this year. Of the top three receivers, Ruggs has the most uncoachable traits. He has huge hands that measure over 10″. He has sufficient size, and he has world-class speed. It is because of these traits that Ruggs has built a lot of momentum and could end up being the first receiver off the board.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – USC)
In a class as deep as this receiver class, it is hard to believe that a player who seemed to be in the middle of the pack could all of a sudden jump into the top group of players. That is exactly what Pittman Jr. has seemed to do.
I don’t see him reaching the range the top three receivers go, but Pittman has NFL bloodlines, very impressive size and catch radius, and he is tough to bring down after the catch. It seems the major reason he is rising is that teams love his reliability and level of “safety” surrounding him. Pittman may not be a consistent pro bowler, but I don’t, and it sounds like many teams don’t, see a way that he will be a bust. Once the second round rolls around that is what teams covet. The players that are closer to sure things than high risk, high reward.
Isaiah Wilson (OT – Georgia)
Wilson’s rise has come out of nowhere. He went this whole process with little to none in terms of coverage and conversation. However, recent reports have come out that a couple of teams believe Wilson will go in the first round. The way this class is, it is set up for a lineman outside of the top four to make a surprise rise.
The reason that I believe Wilson is the lineman building momentum now is because of his size and length combination, as well as his tenacity at the right tackle position. Hopefully, a theme is showing up here as both of these traits are traits you just have. You can’t really coach them. If you look at the tackles outside the top four, Wilson’s size, length, and play style are the best combination available.
Noah Igbinoghene (CB – Auburn)
Noah has been a steady riser and deserves this shoutout. Coming into the draft process starting in January, Igbinoghene was not a popular name. Since then he has shown the tools that teams want in their man to man corners.
He has really good reactive athleticism, will step right up and jam the receiver, and he has no fear making a tackle in the run game. Igbinoghene has made his way all the way up to my CB4. I fully expect to hear his name called round one thanks to those top-flight traits and instant impact ability.
Darrynton Evans (RB – Appalachian State)
Evans has been a late riser on my personal rankings and has really picked up steam as we come down to the last week before the draft. I firmly believe if he played at a bigger school, even though Appalachian State gave bigger schools plenty of trouble, he would be widely considered a top 5 back.
Even while at the small school, Evans showed the makings of a complete RB. He has speed, a second gear in the open field, he can run between and outside the tackles, and he can both catch the ball and pass block. I believe that of my top RBs Evans is the best pass protector of them all. In my RB rankings, I have Evans currently at RB7, but I would not be shocked if he goes higher than that or has a better career than guys ahead of him. His rise might be just beginning. Look for his name to be called Day Two.
Fallers
Jacob Eason (QB – Washington)
Eason has been all over rankings throughout this entire draft process. As the draft nears it seems that the buzz surrounding him being a first-rounder has all but dried up. The way things have fallen it sounds like three QBs should go top 10. Then, Jordan Love should also make it into the first round. After that Eason is one of the next couple of QBs available.
Jacob Eason has a few reasons why his odds of going first round or even being the fifth QB drafted are falling. It’s a combination of a lack of experience and he also clearly struggled vs. the best competition he faced. Sometimes he looks like the best QB in the draft and other times his accuracy drops way off. That inconsistency and lack of experience partnered with a lack of athleticism to add another dimension to cover the inconsistency of his arm may limit his ceiling because accuracy doesn’t usually get better in the pros. In the end, I don’t see him getting past the early second round, but earlier in the process he looked like he was a top 15 lock.
Tee Higgins (WR – Clemson)
Higgins had a bit of a rough draft process. He came in being hyped as a top-five receiver prospect. Unfortunately, once the draft process kicked off Higgins wasn’t a part of it much and when he did it wasn’t overly impressive.
Higgins decided to hold out from performing at the Combine and cited his reasoning as not enough time to prepare after the season even though other Clemson teammates and LSU players (his opponent in his last game) did workout. This put a lot of pressure on his pro day. When that day came, Higgins didn’t blow away the test results. He ran in the 4.5s which was expected, but only jumped 31″ in the vertical jump. That was alarming since he was supposed to be a deep-ball/jump-ball threat.
In other years these decent results wouldn’t hurt someone too much. This year, however, with such a deep class you need to stand out to be noticed and targeted early. Especially when receivers who fill the same type of role, like Denzel Mims, have been dominating the pre-draft process and stealing the spotlight. The slide has shown up in mock drafts as Higgins has gone from late first to a second-round pick consistently.
Austin Jackson (OT – USC)
Austin Jackson hasn’t necessarily done something to drop. It is more about how other players in his position group have picked up steam. Matt Peart and Ezra Cleveland had nice Combine performances and Isaiah Wilson has picked up a lot of attention the last few days.
Jackson also had another event take place in his personal life that may result in the dropping of his stock. The drop isn’t because of his decision to do what he did, but because of the results. During the 2019 offseason, Jackson donated his bone marrow to his sister who was battling a disease. The result of the surgery left Jackson much weaker than his previous season and it showed up in his film this season. He is still working on getting back to where he was before the surgery. It is the pairing of the rise of other prospects and his recovery process that I believe he will fall outside of the first round after spending much of the draft cycle getting mocked in the late first round. Early to mid-second round sounds like the much more likely result at this time.
Players with Injury Concerns
This is the biggest effect of the Coronavirus quarantine. It is because of it that teams can’t bring in players for private workouts and to allow their doctors to look over players either for the first time or to recheck what they saw at the Combine.
The league also hasn’t been able to hold the typical medical rechecks post-Combine. Health clearance is the most important checkmark to get for a draft prospect and players don’t have a way to get it from teams.
This will result in any player with injury concerns likely to fall come draft weekend. Some players who could feel the effects of this are Tua Tagovailoa, Laviska Shenault, and Jordyn Brooks, who all are recovering from injuries and surgeries and can’t be checked by interested teams.
Virtual Pro Day Participants
This is a very unfortunate occurrence. For a lot of small school and far under the radar prospects the only way they could get results out to teams is through these virtual pro days. Over the last few days, though, several pro day testing results have come out that do not match even close to what the results were for them at the Combine.
This has led the media, and I’m sure teams, to lose all trust in the results that are being posted from these virtual pro days. This will most likely result in a lot of these under the radar and small school prospects to fall even farther than usual because they have no reliable numbers to go off of. Teams are very particular about the numbers they gather. If their scouts didn’t gather the data it’s rare that they will accept it. Add in the recent mishaps and it’s a huge problem. So look for the under the radar guys to fall even farther.
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Mark Johnson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mark, check out his archive and follow him @MJ_NFLDraft.
