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9 Players to Buy Low/Sell High (Fantasy Football)

Sep 24, 2020

Stefon Diggs is a prime sell-high candidate

A plethora of notable injuries last week wrecked fantasy squads and altered the football landscape at large. What was once a bright future for many fantasy managers now looks bleak, but doing your due diligence, making deals, and crushing the waiver wire can increase your roster’s ceiling more than one might think. Pouncing on undervalued players and capitalizing on your players’ peak value are the fastest ways to upgrade weak areas of your roster. Knowing this, our featured analysts have come to your aid ahead of Week 3 and have shared their top buy-low and sell-high recommendations below.

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Expert Buy Low Sell High
Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders) A.J. Green (WR – CIN) Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros) Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) John Brown (WR – BUF)
Justin Dodds (Locked In Football) Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI) Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros) A.J. Green (WR – CIN) Devonta Freeman (RB – NYG)
Kyle Yates (FantasyPros) Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – GB)

Q1. Who is your favorite buy-low trade candidate at this point in the season and who are you willing to give up for him?

A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
“I think it’s a good time to target Green in trades. By my estimates, he’s scored 2.4 fewer touchdowns than one would expect based on where he’s seen his targets, more than double the shortfall of any other wide receiver. He’s seen six targets in the end zone, but four were poorly thrown and the other two were defended. Meanwhile, Green is enjoying a 23.4% target share that is 20th among all wide receivers and is nearly 10% more than his next closest teammate, Tyler Boyd (13.8%). See if you can trade a hot timeshare running back like Darrell Henderson or Devin Singletary for him.”
– Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders)

“If you want an under-the-radar option who can give you every-week WR2 production going forward, A.J. Green is your man. The Bengals’ alpha receiver is currently tied for fourth in the league with 22 targets and his 322 air yards is the most among all wideouts by a large margin. He’s got just eight catches for 80 yards to show for it so far, but an explosion is imminent with that kind of usage, especially as Joe Burrow continues to develop as a passer. Green was only a sixth-round pick in 12-team leagues to begin with, so see if you can snag him for a recent waiver wire pickup like Devonta Freeman or Mike Davis.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) 
“Thielen is the clear-cut No. 1 option in the Vikings’ pass attack, and judging how their defense has looked in their first two matchups, we’re going to see plenty of pass-happy games out of Kirk Cousins. Sure, he looked horrendous in Week 2, but that’s a blip on the radar and one that’ll allow you to buy Thielen for a low-end WR2 price. The Vikings have only run 47.5 plays per game over the first two weeks, something that won’t continue. If you’re able to get Thielen for someone like his former teammate Stefon Diggs, I’d do that deal.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI) 
“Drake is the best buy-low option for me. He has five relatively soft matchups in a row before his bye in Week 7, so now is the time to pull the trigger on Drake before his cost skyrockets. The Cardinals’ offense has been more efficient than expected and their team overall is better than expected so far. What does this mean for Drake’s fantasy outlook? More volume from closing out games, more red zone looks, and the potential for more touchdowns than expected. Drake is the RB16 in half PPR currently, and that might be the worst he’ll be all year. I’d be buying him for guys like Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Chris Carson, Miles Sanders, Raheem Mostert, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, etc.”
– Justin Dodds (Locked In Football)

Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) 
“Gallup is someone that I’m looking to acquire for cheap if I can. He’s part of one of the league’s most dynamic offenses and he’s still seeing significant opportunity deep downfield. While the box score might not suggest that he’s been great, he’s just missed on a couple of big plays that would completely change his fantasy outlook. It all depends on your league, but see if you can get someone to bite on an offer for Corey Davis or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Q2. Who is your favorite sell-high candidate at this point in the season and what would you try to get in return?

Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
“Diggs has to be the sell-high candidate of the year. He was drafted as a low-end WR2 and is currently the WR4 in half-PPR scoring. Diggs has been crazy efficient this year, catching 16 balls on 22 targets (73% catch rate, 5% greater than his career average) for 14.9 yards per reception (nearly a 15% increase) and a touchdown. Unfortunately for Diggs, and the Bills offense as a whole, you don’t get to play the Dolphins and Jets every week, so these numbers are sure to regress. With that in mind, why not try to capitalize on his current value? I’d be swapping Diggs for guys like D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, and D.J. Moore for example.”
– Justin Dodds (Locked In Football)

Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) 
“I think Ridley is a bit overvalued after his hot start to the season. The obvious reason is his league-leading four touchdown receptions, a 1.4-touchdown surplus that is third highest at the position. Also consider the Falcons have played both of their games so far in a dome and against teams in the Seahawks and Cowboys that are likely middle-of-the-pack in pass defense (16th and 17th in pass defense DVOA last year). Things will likely get tougher for Ridley when facing the Bears this week and then traveling to Green Bay next week. Don’t give away a possible top-10 receiver for nothing, but see if you can flip Ridley for a slow-starting bell-cow back like Derrick Henry or Miles Sanders.”
– Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders)

John Brown (WR – BUF) 
“Do you think the Bills are going to have two top-10 wide receivers at the end of the year? Yeah, neither do I. This is your opportunity to sell high on Brown, who has managed to rack up 10/152/2 over the first two weeks while Josh Allen leads the NFL in passing yards. Unfortunately, they’re not going to play the Jets or Dolphins every week. Brown is going to pop off from time to time, but he’s not going to be a reliable every-week starter. If you’re able to get top-30 value out of him in a trade, you should. If you can get A.J. Green or DeVante Parker for him in a trade, you should be willing to pull the trigger.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Devonta Freeman (RB – NYG)
“The last time we saw Freeman on a football field, he averaged a putrid 3.6 yards per carry, the worst 2019 rushing efficiency of any running back not named Peyton Barber or Le’Veon Bell. Now the 28-year-old will team up with a Giants offensive line that even Saquon Barkley was struggling to run behind. With a defense that is also highly questionable, the Giants are going to have trouble staying committed to the run, which could mean we see more Dion Lewis and less Freeman. The fantasy community seems evenly divided on Freeman’s prospects, but he just went for a whopping 75% of the FAB budget in one of my leagues. That suggests there are some leagues where you could use Freeman to pry away a player like Antonio Gibson, whose best days are ahead of him, not behind him.”
– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – GB)
“Right now, Valdes-Scantling is the WR20 in half-PPR scoring. He’s gone up against two easy matchups to start the year and he’s the third wide receiver on this roster in terms of snaps. He goes up against an incredibly stingy secondary this week in New Orleans and we could see him come back down to earth. I’m looking to sell high if I can. If you can get someone like Keenan Allen for him, I’d do that in a heartbeat. Each league is different so that trade is unlikely to happen, but it doesn’t hurt to offer it.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.

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