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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Tuesday (9/15)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Sep 15, 2020

It’s time for another Tuesday edition of DraftKings DFS NBA strategy advice, and tonight’s slate features the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, which tips off at 6:40PM. The festivities conclude with the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers in a decisive Game 7 at 9:00PM. On the brink of elimination and down 3-1, the Nuggets have forced a Game 7 for the second time this postseason, and it all comes down to this one, with a trip to the Western Conference Finals and a meeting with LeBron James and the Lakers on the line.

As always, I’ll highlight value plays to help you save some coin, studs to pay up for, and notable players to fade. We’ve got an exciting night of basketball ahead, so let’s get to it!

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Value Plays

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Lou Williams (LAC) DEN $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Monte Morris (DEN) LAC $3,600 ⭐⭐ High

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  • Williams has averaged 25.7 minutes in this series, and though he can find himself under-utilized, his ability to score gives him plenty of upside at a $5.5K price tag.
  • Over his last two games, Morris has seen just 16.5 minutes of action, but he’s averaged 0ver 18 DK points per contest in that span. He’s averaging better than 1 DK point per minute, and he only needs 18 to hit 5x value. With so few cheap options available on the slate, Morris is worth a dart throw in tournaments.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Gary Harris (DEN) LAC $4,600 ⭐⭐ Medium
Tyler Herr0 (MIA) BOS $5,400 ⭐⭐ Medium

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  • Harris offers big-time value on tonight’s slate at only $4.6K. After a 31.5 DK-point performance Sunday, his price has remained the same, and as a new fixture in the starting lineup, he should continue to see plenty of minutes and usage in Game 7. Harris has topped 28 DK points in two of his last four and has a solid chance to return value here.
  • Herro has averaged just north of 29 DK points over his last four contests while logging over 30 minutes off the bench in that span. He should play a similar role in the Conference Finals against Boston, and at only $5.4K, there’s a great chance he delivers 5-6x value in Game 1.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Duncan Robinson (MIA) BOS $4,500 ⭐⭐ High
Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) LAC $5,300 ⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Robinson 10.25, 21.25, 16.0, 31.25 and 2.75 DK points. Those numbers highlight Robinson’s boom-or-bust nature, but at this price, he’s definitely worth a roster spot in tournaments. The starter is always a threat to get hot from deep, and when he does, he can easily return value.
  • He’s averaged just 20.5 DK points over his last two games, but MPJ has shown 40-point upside this series. In the pivotal Game 7, it will be all hands on deck for Denver, and Porter Jr. has the best upside of he, Jerami Grant, and Paul Millsap. I’ll roll with MPJ here at just $5.3K.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Daniel Theis (BOS) MIA $5,700 ⭐⭐ Medium
Jae Crowder (MIA) BOS $5,800 ⭐⭐ Low

__________

  • Theis has scored at least 30 DK points in two of his last three contests and continues to put up solid numbers as Boston’s starting center. He’ll have a tough go against the Miami Heat defense, but Theis should see enough minutes and usage to be worth his $5.7K salary.
  • Crowder has scored at least 31 DK points in four straight games, while his salary hasn’t increased significantly in that span. As a starter for the Heat, he’s averaged 33.3 minutes per contest in that span and will look to keep the strong fantasy performances coming in Game 1 tonight. At a sub-$6K price tag, he’s someone to target.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kelly Olynyk (MIA) BOS $3,500 ⭐⭐ High
Ivica Zubac (LAC) DEN $4,800 ⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • Zubac has seen 30 mins in each of his last three games, and he should see a significant workload in this one. As the bigger defender in the paint than Montrezl Harrell, he should draw more playing time to matchup with Nikola Jokic. Zubac’s affordable salary makes him a quality option that won’t break the bank.
  • Olynyk has scored at least 20 DK points in three of his last five matchups, but he scored just 12 DK points in the other two. Priced at just $3.5K, he’s worth the risk due to the upside to allow you a little more money to spend elsewhere.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,400: Prior to Sunday’s 49-point performance, Leonard averaged 65.8 DK points over his prior two contests, and he has that kind of upside nightly. Leonard seems to play his best when the lights are brightest, so he’s someone to get into your lineups tonight.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,000: Aside from a Game 1 dud, Jokic has been huge in the Nuggets’ series against the Clippers, averaging 58.6 DK points over his last five games. Even with a five-figure salary, Jokic is a good value on tonight’s slate.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $8,400: Adebayo has scored at least 46 DK points in six of nine games this postseason, and he’s more than capable of hitting value at this price.
  • Paul George (LAC) $8,600: Coming off two straight performances of at least 50 DK points, “Playoff P” is worth a look tonight as the Clippers look to advance to the first conference finals in team history.
  • Jaylen Brown (BOS) $8,000: Over his last three games, Brown has gone for 41.5, 60.0, and 41.5 DK points and will look to keep his productive streak going in Game 1 of the ECF.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,700: Tatum closed out the series with Toronto with two 60-point performances, though with so many quality options available in Boston, the inflated price makes Tatum a tough sell, particularly with more reliable options in this range, including Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic.
  • Jamal Murray (DEN) $8,700: Murray has topped 40 DK points just twice in six games this series, and it’s tough to predict him hitting value here.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,500: Butler certainly has the ability to hit value, but he averaged just 37.3 DK points over his last four games. Due to Miami’s team style of ball, Butler’s performances can be a mixed bag from night-to-night.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $7,700: Walker hasn’t topped 40 DK points in five games, and I’m not spending up for him here on the off-chance that he breaks that streak tonight.
  • Marcus Smart (BOS) $6,900: A 60-point performance in Game 6 of the East semis has greatly inflated Smart’s price, but in six other games in the series, he topped out at 36.5 DK points. He’s not worth $6.9K on this slate.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

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Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.

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