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Below are my picks for Week 6 of the FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM. Read more about the contest here.
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Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) @ TB – Over 19.5
Coming off a Week 5 bye and with the return of WR1 Davante Adams, Rodgers should have no problem at all with achieving the over in this one. The quarterback who has spent much of the past decade being mentioned as one of The Most Talented Quarterbacks Ever (before Patrick Mahomes essentially rendered him as old news) has played himself into the 2020 NFL MVP discussion with his Packers a perfect 4-0 and averaging 38 points a game. Rodgers has surpassed 24 fantasy points in three of his four starts to begin the year. This one has all the makings of a potential shootout between Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT) vs CLE – Over 19.3
Speaking of 4-0 quarterbacks of high-octane offenses. Big Ben has bounced back in a big way after missing pretty much all of 2019. Despite already having a bye in Week 4 due to Covid-19, Roethlisberger ranks fifth in the NFL with 10 passing touchdowns. With the Steelers averaging 29.5 points per game to start the year, I’m expecting plenty of fireworks between Roethlisberger and his rookie rock star receiver, Chase Claypool. There isn’t a more exciting game during Week 6’s early afternoon slate than 4-0 Pittsburgh vs 4-1 Cleveland.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) @ TB – Over 14.8
It pains me to say this, as Ndamukong Suh and Lavonte David are some of my favorite Nebraska Cornhusker pals. But the Tampa Bay defense, led by these former Bo Pelini Blackshirts (Go Big Red), have no shot whatsoever at slowing down either of Green Bay’s Aaron’s on Sunday afternoon. No team in the NFL has scored more points than the Packers (even though the Cheese Heads have only played four games), and only the Dallas Cowboys (thank you garbage time!) have put up more yards. You won’t find a better offense in the National Football League right now than Matt LaFleur’s bunch. Jones has surpassed 15.6 fantasy points in every game this season and he will do it again, with relative ease, in Week 6 against the Buccaneers.
Raheem Mostert (RB – SF) vs LAR – Over 13.6
Raheem “The Dream” Mostert was my Must-Have Player for 2020. Despite suffering a Week 2 MCL sprain late in the first half against the Jets, Mostert has eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in all three of his games in 2020. Even though the fantasy industry wanted to pretend that San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was incapable of giving his top running back meaningful touches, despite a career track record of doing exactly that, Mostert is “surprising” folks by averaging roughly 15 touches per game, even after missing the entire second half of Week 2. Even with the increased work load this season, Mostert is averaging a blistering 8.8 yards per touch. Is there anything left to be said about this guy’s star power? I think not. Surfs up, bruh.
Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE) @ PIT – Under 16.0
Chalk this Week 6 AFC North slugfest up to the quintessential “Something’s Gotta Give” adage. With Pittsburgh’s elite run defense (64 rushing yards allowed per game) and Cleveland’s league-leading rushing offense (188.4 rushing yards per game), both teams will have their hands full dealing with the opposition’s strength. I’d be remiss if I failed to mention that Cleveland has greatly benefited from playing two of the league’s worst run defenses in Cincinnati and Dallas. It’s important to note that during Week 1’s loss at Baltimore, the Browns could only muster 138 yards on the ground. Hunt will have plenty of chances, but I expect him to score around 12-14 points on Sunday against Pittsburgh’s vaunted defensive front.
Allen Robinson (WR – CHI) @ CAR – Under 13.4
Don’t look now but Matt Rhule and the Carolina Panthers currently reside in first place throughout the NFC South. After losing All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey to injury, the Panthers have ripped off three straight victories in rather impressive fashion. Despite having opposing offenses continue to try and attack the Carolina defense through the air, the Panthers rank in the top five in passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed. With Nick Foles embarking on his first start with Chicago outside of the Windy City, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Allen Robinson and the rest of this Bears offense.
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL) @ PHI – Under 12.0
Time for ol’ Bob to eat some crow. After practically dismissing “Hollywood” Brown from the fantasy landscape in my Week 4 edition, the second-year Baltimore receiver has since totaled 18 targets, 10 receptions, 163 yards, and a touchdown. While I’m happy to see Brown turn it up a notch over the past two weeks, you can still consider me a staunch skeptic on this Ravens passing attack for anyone outside of Mark Andrews. I’m doubling down on my glass half-empty approach with Brown in this offense. Give me the under.
Darius Slayton (WR – NYG) vs WAS – Under 11.9
Through five games, Slayton has provided a fairly predictable read on his weekly fantasy value. When the New York Football Giants find themselves going up against a less than stellar secondary with an opposing offense that loves to put up points in bunches (Hello, Steelers and Cowboys), Slayton is an absolute smash. When the Giants are facing an opponent with a below average offense? Not so much. I’m avoiding this snoozefest of an NFC East tilt at all costs.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) vs ATL – Over 10.9
It’s the worst kept secret this side of the Mississippi that I’m all aboard the Justin Jefferson hype train. Despite playing in a run-dominant scheme where passing volume is few and far between (Why did Rick Spielman extend Kirk Cousins before he had to?), Jefferson has already established himself as a true difference maker alongside Adam Thielen. Now, how do we get the Vikings to clean house and build an offense around their new receiver? Anyone mind giving Lincoln Riley a call? Just to see what he’s up to. Mike Zimmer has to go. Oh wait, Rick Spielman extended Zimmer this summer too! Can we at least can Rick Spielman? Crap! Spielman signed an extension this past August! Currently at 1-4 with Cousins, Zimmer, and Spielman tied together for the next handful of years, this Minnesota Vikings franchise is going nowhere fast.
Zach Ertz (TE – PHI) vs BAL – Under 8.8
I’ll be honest. I’m someone who covets elite tight ends for my respective fantasy rosters year in, year out. And Zach Ertz has earned every ounce of my trust over the past few years serving as a consistent target monster for Doug Pederson and this Philadelphia Eagles offense. But over the past two weeks, Ertz has combined for 15 receiving yards on only five catches. Yikes. Going up against a dominant Baltimore defense (as long as they’re not playing the Chiefs), Ertz’s struggles continue in Week 6.
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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, follow him @RobBob17.