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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Friday (3/19)

Mar 19, 2021

Happy Friday, everyone! We have a massive ten-game slate to dive into today, so let’s not spend too much time on the intro and dive right in.

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

The slate tonight has a plethora of studs to choose from but is also uncharacteristically loaded with value. As news breaks throughout the day, even more, value is likely to present itself, so on a slate like this, stacking becomes a key strategy if your playing in tournaments. While I don’t explicitly address it in the writeups below, it’s advantageous to take a few of the best options from opposing teams and load them into your lineup, especially if it’s projected to be a close, high-scoring game. You can keep track of point spreads and expected point totals over at BettingPros. Also, with the trade deadline less than a week away, you never know what kind of slate-breaking news might come out, so make sure to keep up with NBA news of the day leading up to tipoff.

Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $7,900: After consecutive sub-par outings against the Clippers, we’ve now seen Porzingis’ salary plummet beneath $8,000 for the first time since early February. Prior to that back-to-back set with the Clippers, however, he averaged nearly 47 DK points/game in the previous two games. I expect him to return to those kinds of numbers tonight in what should be a high-scoring showdown with Portland.

Draymond Green (GS) $6,700: Green has topped 50 DK points in two of his last three games, but for some reason, his salary has barely budged. The veteran will get plenty of minutes with James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall sidelined in the frontcourt and plenty of usage with Stephen Curry and Kelly Oubre unlikely to play. Don’t be surprised if Green logs his second straight triple-double tonight.  

Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,500: Walker has been underwhelming lately, but it’s nothing that a visit from the Kings can’t fix. Sacramento has given up the fourth-most DK points to point guards on the season and the most over the past seven games. After getting the night off to rest on Wednesday, he should be fresh and ready to take advantage of this juicy matchup.

Delon Wright (DET) $6,000: He recently missed seven games with a groin injury, but since returning, Wright has increased his fantasy output in four consecutive games. He’s also seen his usage constantly increase over that span. Tonight he takes on a Houston team that’s allowed the fourth-most DK points to point guards on average over the past seven games. His role on the Pistons gives him a safe floor while his triple-double upside raises his ceiling.

Robert Williams (BOS) $5,800: Over his last three games, Williams has averaged 14.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks, good enough for an average of 40 DK points/game over that span. He should continue to see plenty of opportunities while Tristan Thompson remains sidelined, and he’ll get them against the team with the worst defensive rating in the association in Sacramento.

Larry Nance Jr (CLE). $5,200: Nance and Kevin Love both returned from lengthy absences four games ago and didn’t exactly impress. Since then, Love reaggravated his calf injury, and Nance has started to thrive. He’s coming off a strong 44 DK point outing Wednesday against Boston and will look to replicate the performance tonight against the Spurs. At his $5,200 salary, he can hit 7x value with just 36 DK points, which isn’t asking too much considering his recent play. 

Saddiq Bey (DET) $5,000: Bey exploded for 54.5 DK points Wednesday night against Toronto. It may be a bit much to ask for a repeat performance, but he should still put up a strong fantasy performance tonight against Houston. The Rockets have been a team to target lately, and that doesn’t change tonight. His inconsistency on the season still presents some risk, but I like his chances to hit at least 5x value tonight, with the potential to go much higher.

Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $4,300: Earlier this week, Whiteside returned to the floor for the first time since February 21. It wasn’t exactly an impressive return; he only put up 16.5 DK points. However, he was on a minutes limit after the extended absence. Marvin Bagley is out for a few weeks, so Whiteside could see additional time on the floor. With his rebounding and shot-blocking ability, Whiteside offers plenty of upside if the minutes are there.  

Nico Mannion (GS) $3,200: With Stephen Curry listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, Mannion stands to benefit the most. The last time Curry sat, Mannion put up 24 DK points. That’s not a huge total, but it’s 7.5x value on his near-minimum salary. 

Kevon Looney (GS) $3,200: Much like Mannion, Looney is a bargain value tonight. He played a season-high 23 minutes on Wednesday due to Golden State’s thin frontcourt, and the Warriors will be in the same situation tonight. Rostering both Mannion and Looney can free up an enormous amount of salary to spend up for some studs.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,700: Doncic has averaged over 71 DK points over his last two outings headed into tonight’s matchup with Portland. The Trail Blazers have given up the most DK points on the season to point guards, making this the perfect scenario for another huge outing from Doncic.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,600: Over the last seven games, the Bulls have given up the third-most DK points to centers. Jokic is typically worth his high-end salary regardless of matchup, but it’s an even easier choice to roster him when the matchup is this good. 
  • Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,900: As is often the case, if you can’t quite find the salary for Jokic, Vucevic is a perfectly fine stud option. The Nets are typically a team to target in DFS, and that doesn’t change tonight. 
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,500: Butler is coming off a down performance his last time out, but I’m willing to go right back to him tonight. I’m considering his last game against the Grizzlies, in which there were only 174 combined points scored, to be an outlier. Prior to that, he had logged at least 50 DK points in seven consecutive games.  
  • Zach LaVine (CHI): $8,700: LaVine almost found his way into this article’s value section. Despite topping 50 DK points in three of his last four games, his salary has dropped for four consecutive games. I’m not sure why that is, but I’m perfectly willing to take advantage of the mis-price.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Damian Lillard (POR) $10,900: Putting Dame here feels blasphemous the way he’s been performing lately, but hear me out. He’s the second most expensive player on the slate, and he’s taking on the team that’s given up the fewest DK points to point guards over the last seven games. Combine that with his likely popularity tonight, and I’m fine with fading him for one game.
  • Donovan Mitchell (UTA) $8,700: Mitchell is coming off a huge game last night, but don’t expect a repeat performance tonight. He’s one of the more inconsistent studs in fantasy basketball, and with Mike Conley returning to the lineup, I’m expecting a letdown from Mitchell.
  • Joe Ingles (UTA) $5,500: Sticking with Jazz players coming off huge games, please don’t chase the points tonight with Joe Ingles. He went off last night but is likely headed back to his bench role with Conley returning. 

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Aaron Larson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @aalarson.

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