For the first time in two years, NBA basketball will be played on March 13th. Seven games are counting towards Saturday’s main slate, so there should be a fair amount of value on the docket. With that said, let’s dive right into my favorite values, studs, and fades for the evening’s DFS action.
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Most Value Per Dollar
At first glance, Saturday’s slate appears set to feature tons of offense, as the average over-under is 231, and more than half of the 14 teams in action rank in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency. The ATL/SAC matchup is currently boasting an over-under of 239, making it the highest on the slate and the best matchup to attack for DFS purposes.
Remember, it’s always wise to hone in on games with high projected point totals when constructing your lineup. These kinds of games will always raise the fantasy ceilings of the players involved.
For a full list of odds and spreads, make sure to check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary.
Chris Boucher (PF – TOR) $6,700
The power forward position is a bit top-heavy in Saturday’s slate, so I don’t mind spending up a bit here to take a chance on Boucher’s upside. The 27-year old has been seeing increased run over the last few games with Toronto dealing with several players in the league’s COVID-19 protocols, and that should continue in this one. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby have all been ruled out of Saturday’s game, so Boucher should once again see 30+ minutes. He’s averaged 40.8 FanDuel points across his last three contests.
Robert Covington (PF – POR) $6,200
After a slow start to the season, Covington has really picked up the pace from a fantasy perspective. He’s seeing heavy minutes and averaging 2.2 blocks, and 2.2 steals over his last four games en route to 37.8 FanDuel points over that span. As mentioned above, the power forward position is weak, and rolling out a safe option feels like the right move here.
Mason Plumlee (C – DET) $6,100
Plumlee dropped 51.9 FanDuel points in his previous matchup against the Nets back in February and finds himself in a good spot once again on Saturday. While the Nets have improved as a team defensively, they still surrender the third-most FanDuel points to opposing big men this season.
Jrue Holiday (PG – MIL) $6,100
It feels weird calling Holiday a value play as he’s one of the more reliable fantasy options in the league, but his salary has fallen over $1,000 below his season average as the Bucks slowly reintegrate him after a long layoff. The good news is that he rejoined the starting lineup for Thursday’s win over the Knicks but was limited due to the blowout. Saturday’s matchup against the Wizards is currently the second-highest over-under on the slate, so Holiday should have no problem producing if Washington can keep the game close. On top of that, the Wizards will be on the second leg of a back-to-back set and already give up the eight-most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season.
Josh Richardson (SF – DAL) $4,900
The Mavericks leaned heavily on Richardson in Thursday’s loss to the Thunder with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis each sitting out for various reasons, and he responded by dropping a season-high 27 points. While his usage won’t be as high with Doncic and Porzingis set to return, he should see heavy minutes in a plus matchup against the Nuggets, who are surrendering the seventh-most FanDuel points to his position this season. Richardson is a good bet to exceed the value in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Danilo Gallinari (SF – ATL) $4,700
Despite being moved to the bench Thursday, Gallinari still produced 32.5 FanDuel points in 29 minutes of playing time. He finds himself in a perfect spot to produce once again on Saturday as this game currently has the highest over-under on the slate at 240, while both teams rank inside the bottom-six in defensive efficiency. On top of that, the Kings are giving up the second-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season, making Gallinari tough to pass up here.
Brook Lopez (C – MIL) $4,700
Lopez is a boring play, but he’s seen his price tag drop almost $300 from his season average on the season. Over his last two outings, the big man is averaging 3.5 blocks and 35.1 FanDuel points per game and has been gifted a matchup against the Wizards, who rank dead last in FanDuel points allowed to opposing centers. The stars are aligning for a monster game from Lopez.
Devonte’ Graham (SG – CHA) $4,700
This one comes with some risk, but Graham is now priced more than $1,000 less than his season average on the season. He was limited to 18 minutes in his return Thursday, but that should begin to increase as we move forward. While Toronto is a tough matchup on paper, they will be without a handful of key players due to COVID-19 protocols, making Graham an interesting option in a game with an over-under of 229.5.
Saben Lee (PG – DET) $4,100
Lee’s value has certainly been trending down over the last week, but he gets a boost with Dennis Smith Jr. being ruled out of Saturday’s game due to COVID-19 protocols. Delon Wright did return from his injury on Thursday, but he should remain on somewhat of a minute restriction for the next couple of games. Lee has proven this season that he can produce in limited amounts of playing time, so all he needs is 20 minutes to smash his $4,100 price tag.
DeAndre Bembry (SG – TOR) $4,100
Bembry has been gifted some extra playing time with a handful of Raptors stuck inside the league’s COVID-19 protocols, and that will be the case once again on Saturday. With Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby already ruled out along with a few more rotational pieces, Bembry should once again see a hefty workload. In his first start on Thursday, he put up 25 FanDuel points in 36 minutes of action and now gets a Hornets team allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to shooting guards this season.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day
Studs Worth Their Salary
- James Harden (SG – BKN) $11,800: Harden has been unreal from a fantasy perspective with Kevin Durant out of the lineup, and that will be the case once again on Saturday. The Pistons rank inside the bottom-12 in defensive efficiency this season, and Harden should have zero problems producing a monster triple-double in this one. The only worry associated with Harden is that Detroit can keep the game close enough, so he doesn’t rest for much of the second half.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL) $11,300: The Greek Freak has scored less than 50 FanDuel points only once in his last 14 games and gets a plus matchup against the Wizards, who rank fourth-worst in defensive efficiency this season. This game has the second-highest over-under on the slate, so there should be no hesitation to center your lineup around Giannis.
- Damian Lillard (PG – POR) $9,900: The fact that Lillard has slipped below $10,000 is ridiculous as he’s been one of the most consistent producers in fantasy all season long. He gets a golden matchup against the Timberwolves, who are tied for the sixth-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league this season and has scored at least 51.4 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. He could go bonkers in this one.
- De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC) $8,700: There is a chance Fox could be the best value on the slate. He’s averaged 58.2 FanDuel points across his last two games and gets a terrific matchup against the Hawks porous defense, who also surrender the second-most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season. As previously mentioned, this game also has the highest over-under at 240, so the sky is the limit for Fox in this one.
Notable Players to Fade
- Russell Westbrook (PG – WAS) $10,100: Westbrook has been impressive lately, and his price tag has shot up as a result. He finds himself on the second leg of a back-to-back set and facing off against one of the best defenses in the league on Saturday. While he could still produce decent numbers, his $10,100 price tag is a bit too steep for my liking. I’d much rather take a look at guys like Damian Lillard or De’Aaron Fox.
- LaMelo Ball (PG – CHA) $8,800: While the matchup is good, Devonte’ Graham’s presence back in the lineup is not. Ball could still be productive, but I want no part of his $8,800 price tag. I’d much rather spend down for guys like De’Aaron Fox and Jrue Holiday or spend up for Damian Lillard.
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Alex Burns a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @aburnshoops.
