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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (5/1)

May 1, 2021

Caris LeVert is the only guy left for the Pacers.

These DFS slates have been bonkers for a while now, and this one’s going to be up there. I say that because we have nearly half of the teams playing the second half of a back-to-back set. Those include Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Memphis, Orlando, Utah, and Washington. That doesn’t even include a handful of teams that play the front end of a B2B here, surely causing mayhem on the injury reports. That means a lot will change between when this is published and tip-off, so keep an eye on the news!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

It’s silly just how valuable the point guards and centers are on DraftKings. They continue to keep these positions way too low in terms of pricing and it doesn’t make sense why. You also need to fill your UTIl slot with these guys too because the wing positions are always much weaker.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Name (TEAM) POSITION OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
PG vs. GSW $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Terry Rozier (CHA) PG/SG vs. DET $7,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Moses Brown (OKC) C vs. IND $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Ja Morant (MEM) PG at ORL $8,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Caris LeVert (IND) SG at OKC $8,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Willy Hernangomez (NOR) C at MIN $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Coby White (CHI) PG at ATL $6,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Joe Ingles (UTH) SG/SF vs. TOR $7,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Khem Birch (TOR) PF/C at UTH $5,300 ⭐⭐ High
Ricky Rubio (MIN) PG vs. NOR $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) $7,400
Porter was our highlight play on Thursday, and if you read that article, you probably had a good night. He provided 50 points, five rebounds, and 11 assists in one of the best performances of the season, dropping 78.3 DraftKings points. That was his second game since taking over for John Wall, and it’s clear that he’s going to be a monster in this expanded role. We love all of that against a Golden State team that ranks second in pace and 21st in points allowed.

Terry Rozier (CHA) $7,900
Rozier is in a similar situation as Porter, taking over primary ball-handling duties for his team. The Hornets are missing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, which has allowed Rozier to generate a 31 percent usage rate with those two off the floor. That’s led to Scary Terry scoring at least 51 DK points in four of his last nine games, providing a 43-point average in that span.

Moses Brown (OKC) $4,900
I’m ready to be hurt again. This guy has mixed gems with duds all year, but the upside is just spectacular. The big man snatched down 18 rebounds on Thursday, marking the fifth time he’s scored at least 32 DK points in his last 12 games. That would be a crazy total from someone this cheap, and we’re going to pray that OKC gives this guy the minutes he deserves. What makes him a little less risky is that Indiana surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Ja Morant (MEM) $8,400
Ja is dropping jaws with his ridiculous play right now. Over his last six games played, Morant is averaging nearly 50 DraftKings points per game. We’ve seen that sort of ability sporadically all year, but we have to ride him when it’s a six-game span like this. Orlando surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, too, if you need any more incentive.

Caris LeVert (IND) $8,300
Indiana was already missing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, but an injury to Malcolm Brogdon on Thursday leaves LeVert as the only guy left. He’s been amazing since those first two went down, averaging 41 DK points per game across his last 11 outings. It’s scary to think what that could look like without Brogdon too.

Willy Hernangomez (NOR) $4,800
Steven Adams sat out Thursday’s win, and Willy has been brilliant whenever given the opportunity. He’s scored at least 33 fantasy points in three of his last five games in total and always produces when given the minutes. So, if Adams is out, Hernangomez is a lock. Not to mention, he faces a 26th-ranked T’Wolves defense that really struggles with opposing centers.

Coby White (CHI) $6,500
White has taken over this offense with Zach LaVine sidelined, posting a 26 percent usage rate with him off the floor. It has led to his best fantasy production, too, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in eight straight games while averaging over 33 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s bad news for an Atlanta team that’s missing half of their roster due to injury.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $7,100
Ingles has been in this section a lot recently, and it’s easy to see why. Utah is missing Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, forcing Ingles into a starting job and ball-handling responsibilities. In his 21 starts this year, Ingles is averaging 31 fantasy points per game and dropped a sseason-high 53 fantasy points in his first game without those two last week.

Khem Birch (TOR) $5,300
It seemed strange when Toronto acquired Birch, but he’s proven to be the starting center they needed all along. An injury to Chris Boucher put even more on his plate, with Khem scoring at least 22 DK points in nine straight games while averaging 30 DK points per game across 29 minutes a night in that span. He’s been even better this week, and he’ll be needed for big minutes against this huge Utah team.

Ricky Rubio (MIN) $4,600
Rubio has been terrible for two weeks now, but he showed just how good he could be on Thursday. Ricky tallied 26 points, six rebounds, six assists, and two steals in one of his best games of the year, and that’s one of the best performances you’ll see from a guy this cheap. He’s done that a few times this year, and it makes him a worthy GPP option against a 28th-ranked Pelicans defense.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,900: The Wizards are the best matchup in fantasy basketball, and that’s scary against a guy like this. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. That should allow Don to roll them, scoring at least 58 fantasy points in five of his last seven games.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,600: Curry is the greatest shooter of all time, and he’s in one of the best stretches of his storied career. In fact, he’s averaging 52 DraftKings points per game since returning from an injury three weeks ago. That’s awful news for Houston, ranked fifth in pace and 27th in points allowed.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,300: KAT is in his best stretch of the season right now, averaging 51 DK points per game across his last 18 outings. That should be easy to duplicate here, with the Pelicans sitting 28th in defensive efficiency.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Pascal Siakam (TOR) $8,200: Toronto looks checked out, and nobody on this team looks more uninterested than Siakam. He’s scored 22 fantasy points in each of his last two games, shooting 7-of-27 from the field in that span. It also marks the second half of a back-to-back, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rest altogether.
  • Kevin Love (CLE) $6,600: Talk about a guy who looks disinterested. Love literally smacked the ball away in a hissy fit on Tuesday and gave the opposing team a basket. That’s no surprise when you see that he’s cracked 34 fantasy points twice in his 15 games since returning, scoring 25 or fewer fantasy points in three of his last four games.
  • Aaron Gordon (DEN) $5,200: It’s unfair to say that the Gordon project hasn’t worked in Denver because they are winning games, but it certainly hasn’t helped his fantasy value. Over his last 14 games played, AG is averaging just 21 DK points per game. That really scares us against a Top-10 Clippers defense.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.