Once upon a time, there was a quirky man named Erwin Schrödinger. He also happened to be a Nobel Prize-winning physicist. He posited a hypothetical test, known as Schrödinger’s Cat, demonstrating that two disparate realities can exist simultaneously. The test goes like this: if you put a cat and some poison into a box and then close the box, two realities exist together — the cat is both dead and alive. However, as long as the box remains unopened, you can’t confirm either reality. The only possible conclusion is that the cat is both dead and alive at the same time — at least until you open the box. Anyway, go hug a cat.
I believe that a dual-reality phenomenon exists in fantasy football. It happens when a player’s projected stats are both consistent with past performance yet seem utterly ridiculous. Let’s examine one such player in that situation.
J.K. Dobbins is both the next great fantasy football superstar, and he’s also definitely not. He is living in two contrasting fantasy realities at the same time. Let’s open the box.
Currently, J.K. Dobbins is the RB13. He has an ECR of 24 and an ADP of 25. Fantasy managers are drafting him between Justin Jefferson and Austin Ekeler. Positionally, he’s ranked higher than the following running backs: Miles Sanders, Najee Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, D’Andre Swift. All of those players could easily have more value than Dobbins, and some of them even have higher projected point totals. Yet Dobbins is ranked higher. Freaky.
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First Reality: The Super Six
J.K. Dobbins had a nice end to his 2020 season. Really nice. Perhaps even nicer than air-conditioning-in-an-Arizona-summer nice. Bullish Dobbins analysts are pointing to this stretch of six games as proof that he’s the second coming of Eric Dickerson.
Over his final six games of the season (he didn’t play Week 12), Dobbins scored at least one touchdown (he hit paydirt twice in Week 17) per game and ran for 495 yards on 77 carries. That’s an average of 6.4 yards per carry.
Let’s compare Dobbins’ 2020 stats to his current projections:
His consensus projections demonstrate a few things:
- His 210 carries would've put him in an elite category last year. Only 10 running backs finished with 200 or more.
- His projected yards per carry (YPC) indicates regression from his full-season average of 6.0 YPC to 5.2 YPC. But that number is still fantastic. In 2020, only seven running backs had a YPC higher than 5.2.
- These projections assume he maintains a solid touchdown rate, with 10-plus of them expected. Only 10 running backs scored double-digit touchdowns in 2020.
If correct, Dobbins could be in line for a top-10 finish at running back. But that's one reality. Let's look at the other.
Second Reality: The Sad Six
Here are the top six reasons why rankers are overvaluing Dobbins:
- Gus Edwards keeps Dobbins from ascending to stardom. These are the carry totals for Gus Edwards since he's been in the league (and on the Ravens): 137, 133, 144. You shouldn't expect his 2021 total to be much different. He has been efficient, too, as he is yet to average under 5.0 YPC in a season. The Ravens also placed a second-round tender on Gus, so he'll remain involved in 2021. To add further insult, Gus Edwards ranked fifth-best among running backs in Pro Football Focus's 2020 rankings, while Dobbins ranked 33rd. This means that, on a per-play basis, Dobbins wasn't even the best running back on Baltimore's roster.
- Lamar Jackson is the RB1. I know, I know, he's a quarterback, now stop yelling. Here are Jackson's carry totals since entering the league: 147, 176, 159. That's a lot of carries not going to Dobbins.
- Mark Ingram is now a member of the Houston Texans, but that doesn't mean much for Dobbins. Ingram had a total of 72 carries in 2020, but virtually none of those carries came during Dobbins's Super Six games. Ingram had three games over that span where he logged a carry, and most of his touches came when the Ravens blew out the Bengals in Week 17. Essentially, Dobbins was already taking Ingram's carries through the Super Six.
- Efficiency microcosm. Dobbins did two things really well over his Super Six: he scored consistently and ran efficiently. Why didn't he do that sooner? Well, the opponents he faced during the Super Six were bad. He faced the Titans (19th-ranked rushing defense), Cowboys (31st), Browns (9th), Jaguars (30th), Giants (10th), and Bengals (29th). Oh, yeah, and more than one-third of his total yards over that stretch came against Cincinnati. He ran well against bad defenses -- but doesn't everyone?
- Receiving work? Yeah, no. Lamar Jackson doesn't often target his running backs. For example, look at Mark Ingram in 2019. He was the lead back in Baltimore, yet he finished with 29 targets and 26 receptions over 15 games played. Over that span, Gus Edwards had seven targets and seven receptions. The receiving opportunities just aren't there.
- There are better values. Earlier, I noted that there were a few running backs getting drafted before Dobbins who you could consider better picks. Just look at Austin Ekeler, the RB14. He is projected to finish with more yards and receptions than Dobbins while maintaining a similar number of touchdowns. That puts Ekeler's projected point total higher than Dobbins' by about 25 points!
Conclusion
Dobbins is living in the box right now. He could be the guy we saw over his Super Six stretch. He could have 6.0 YPC and find the endzone once every 13 carries. We've already seen him be that guy, so it's not impossible to imagine.
But he could also get stuck in a role with only 200 carries and limited receptions, and you could be grabbing him ahead of players with much higher ceilings.
So which is the real reality? Too bad Schrödinger isn't around to figure it out.
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Timothy Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Timothy, check out his archive or follow him @timmy_the_metz.