Fantasy rankings don’t change much from the beginning of the preseason to the end, but it’s recognizing those changes that can mean the difference in drafting a championship team. Not only picking up on who the new lead back is on a team but also which receiver is seeing more targets than others can be incredibly handy. Below are a few names that have seen their Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) change the most in the past few days so that you can take advantage.
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ECR Risers
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL)
Gus Edwards was always going to be a value this season. He led all Ravens running backs last year in carries totaling over 700 yards on just 144 rush attempts to go along with six scores. The rise of second-year back JK Dobbins was offset by the departure of veteran Mark Ingram, making the gain and loss in number carries in both scenarios a wash for Edwards.
Of course, that was before the season-ending injury Dobbins suffered this past Saturday. And while no one assumes Baltimore will magically give Edwards passing down duties in addition to pounding the ball, there is no doubt who the starter there will be and why Edwards is now a low-end RB2 in ECR. Don’t draft Edwards thinking he’ll be your bell cow. But if you prefer to wait on running back in your draft, Edwards is a great fallback option.
James Robinson (RB – JAC)
It’s been quite the roller coaster when it comes to James Robinson’s ranking this off-season. At the beginning of the year, Robinson was coming off one of the most unlikely rookie seasons in fantasy history. Despite being an undrafted free agent in 2020, he topped 1,000 yards on a team that ended the season with the worst record in football. It may have taken the entire season for people to finally believe in Robinson’s fantasy value, but there was no doubt by the end of it.
Fast forward to the NFL Draft when Jacksonville used a first-round pick on highly touted running back Travis Etienne, and it looked like the James Robinson fantasy balloon had finally popped. Fast forward again to pre-season when that highly touted rookie suffered a season-ending injury and put Robinson squarely back in the starting lineup.
It shouldn’t be a surprise to see Robinson climb the ECR again. He currently ranks as RB18 – a screaming value considering Robinson finished as a top-10 fantasy back last year despite missing two games and not having Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.
Marquez Callaway (WR – NO)
With no Michael Thomas and no Tre’Quan Smith for large portions of camp, someone needed to step up to be the top receiver in New Orleans. All indications are it was Marquez Callaway who not only saw his ECR go up throughout the pre-season but has room for it to go even higher after the Saints named the strong-armed Jameis Winston their starting quarterback. Callaway’s ECR is currently at WR69, which is an amazing value for a top target on any football team. Factor in the Saints offense and how well Callaway has shown in pre-season action, and he’s a strong buy.
Corey Davis (WR – NYJ)
While Corey Davis has yet to fulfill the sky-high expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick, he did have his best season in his last season with the Titans. He was 16 yards short of his first 1,000-yard season and totaled the most 100-yard games (five) and touchdowns (five) of his brief career. He then parlayed that into a free-agent contract with the Jets, who brought him in to help the development of their quarterback of the future, Zach Wilson.
It’s an extremely small sample size, but if the pre-season is any indication, Corey Davis could be in for a huge year. He’s seen a target on a whopping 77% of the routes he’s run and is lapping other Jets receivers when it comes to Wilson’s attention. Those numbers have factored into Davis jumping up five spots in ECR in just the last week. Right now, he’s a bargain as the WR40 as he’s slated to be the top target in a much-improved Jets offense.
ECR Fallers
Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR)
Whoever the Rams decided to roll with after the season-ending injury to Cam Akers was going to be the big winner. Los Angeles ran it the seventh-most times last season, and not even the addition of Matthew Stafford should change that. Darrell Henderson is first up and, accordingly, was ranked high on pre-season rankings when it happened. Training camp solidified that as Henderson is being treated as the starter even after the Rams traded for now-former Patriots running back Sony Michel.
The trade was a curious move for a team that cut one running back with a degenerative knee issue (Todd Gurley) one year, only to trade for another (Michel) the next. Between that and the Rams giving up just a fifth and sixth-round picks for Michael, Henderson’s dip represents a small value, and he should be drafted higher than his current ECR of RB22.
Adam Trautman (TE – NO)
After a redshirt rookie season in 2020, Adam Trautman was ready to break out in his sophomore season. The incumbent tight end in New Orleans – Jared Cook – wasn’t re-signed, which seemed the indicate the Saints were ready to roll with Trautman as the starter. The former third-round pick saw his stock rise even more after the news of a fairly serious Michael Thomas injury left a huge void in the passing game. But after seeing no targets in the first preseason game and being injured in the second, his stock has taken a hit. He’s now barely hanging on as a low-end TE2 in our ECR. Trautman could still rebound in time to be fantasy-relevant, but a good start seems to be out the window. We’ll have to wait a little longer to see him produce.
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Michael Moore is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @DLF_Moore.
