NBA DFS Primer: Friday (12/17)

Well, it’s been an absolutely brutal week for season-long fantasy basketball leagues, to say the least. With more than 47 players entering into COVID protocols so far in December, it’s been tough to stay afloat. Fortunately for us DFS folk, we have the opportunity to adjust by building a new lineup each and every night. Sure, watching your favorite team trot out a G-league roster isn’t always the most entertaining, but there is still money to be made. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do on Friday.

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Schedule and Odds

ORL vs. MIA (-4) O/U: 209
DEN @ ATL (-4) O/U: 222
BOS vs. GS (-2.5) O/U: 213.5
NOP vs. MIL (-3) O/U: 220
SAS @ UTA (-11.5) O/U: 224
SAC vs. MEM (-3) O/U: 225
CHA @ POR (-1.5) O/U: 223.5
LAL @ MIN (-1) O/U: 223.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (health protocols) is OUT
• Jimmy Butler (tailbone) is OUT
• LeBron James (abdomen) is QUESTIONABLE
• Anthony Davis (knee) is QUESTIONABLE
• Russell Westbrook (health protocols) is OUT
• LaMelo Ball (health protocols) is QUESTIONABLE
• Khris Middleton (knee) is QUESTIONABLE
• Cole Anthony (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE
• Richaun Holmes (eye) is QUESTIONABLE
• Mo Bamba (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE
• Bobby Portis (health protocols) is OUT

Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $12,000 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Is there really an explanation needed here? Jokic is the MVP front-runner for a reason and has been one of the most consistent producers night in and night out. He’s averaging 60 DK points and 57 FD points per game this season and with all of the value opened up due to health and safety protocols, spending up for Jokic here is a no-brainer. For what it’s worth, the Hawks have given up the fifth-most DK points, and the sixth-most FD points to opposing centers this season.

Jrue Holiday (PG – MIL): $7,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
I always love attacking revenge games in DFS! While there is no correlation to a player’s production when facing their former team, it’s fun. Holiday returns to New Orleans on Friday but what gets me excited is that he’ll have another game without Giannis Antetokoumnpo and possibly Khris Middleton. In Wednesday’s win over the Pacers, he went for 26/4/14 and racked up over 50 fantasy points on both sites. Add in the fact that Bobby Portis is now stuck in health and safety protocols, and Holiday has a rock-solid floor and a high ceiling.

LeBron James (PF – LAL): $10,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
James is questionable to play, so we’ll have to pay close attention to his status during the day, but the sky is the limit if he can suit up. Russell Westbrook is now in the health and safety protocols, so the Lakers can’t afford for James to play passively to conserve energy in this one. While this will be Westbrook’s first missed game this season, LeBron is seeing a 32.5% usage rate in 190 minutes without Russ on the floor in 17 games. The Timberwolves have also been putrid against opposing forwards, surrendering the second-most FD and fourth-most DK points this season.

Cash Game Considerations

Tyrese Haliburton (PG/SG – SAC): $5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Haliburton is also questionable to suit up with some back soreness, but if he gets the green light, he’s an auto-play on DraftKings, where he is $1,400 cheaper. Without De’Aaron Fox, the Kings will have no choice but to rely on him for playmaking purposes against a fast-paced Grizzlies’ squad. If he suits up, Haliburton is locked into 30+ minutes and has an extremely safe floor on DraftKings, though his $7,200 on FanDuel looks a bit inflated at the moment.

Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $7,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Lowry has been asked to carry the load with all of the injuries plaguing the Miami Heat, and it’s essentially turned him into a matchup-proof fantasy play. With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo out and Tyler Herro questionable, we could be looking at another high-usage game for Lowry. He’s scored at least 35 FD points in four of his last five games, and the Magic have surrendered the fifth-most FD points to opposing point guards this season.

Wendell Carter Jr. (PF/C – ORL): $6,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Carter has seen at least 30 minutes in 11 straight games and gets the Heat, who will be missing Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler once again. There’s also a possibility that Mo Bamba and Cole Anthony are forced to sit, which would swing more usage over to Carter. Dewayne Dedmon is a formidable replacement for Adebayo, but WCJ should have his way in this one. The last time he scored less than 28 DK points was back on November 22nd in a blowout loss to the Bucks.

GPP Targets

Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Young has hit a groove recently, putting up more than 55 DK points over his last seven games. He hasn’t scored less than 25 points since November 20th and gets a matchup against a Nuggets squad surrendering the fourth-most DK points to opposing point guards this season. He’s averaged the same amount of DK points (48) as Stephen Curry this season but is priced nearly $1,000 less. Take advantage!

Miles Bridges (SF/PF – CHA): $7,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Bridges is a better play on DraftKings Friday, but I’d play him with confidence on both sites. While the masses may pivot away with Charlotte nearing full strength, this could be a sneaky low-ownership kind of night for him. Now that Charlotte has more playmakers on the floor, defenses can’t spend as much effort slowing Bridges down, which should open up this game. This season, Portland has given up the second-most DK and the eighth-most FD points per game to opposing forwards.

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $9,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Tatum has been incredible as of late, scoring 50 or more DraftKings’ points in six of his last seven games. He’s fresh off of a 42-point outing in Monday’s win over the Timberwolves and gets a big matchup against the Warriors. With Jaylen Brown now back in the mix, defenses will have to worry about two guys now instead of just focusing on Tatum, so it might open things up a bit for him. The Warriors have been a tough matchup for most people, mostly due to them blowing opponents out of the water, but Tatum will have to go off if the Celtics have any shot at winning this game.

Value Plays

Davion Mitchell (PG/SG – SAC): $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Mitchell has been productive despite seeing around 25 minutes per game but is now set to see a larger role with De’Aaron Fox stuck in the COVID protocols. The Grizzlies are a fast-paced team, and Mitchell should have no problem seeing 30+ minutes and posting at least 6/7X value on Friday. He’s an even better play on DraftKings as he’s priced more than $1,000 cheaper.

Terrence Ross (SG/SF – ORL): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Ross won a lot of people some money on Wednesday night with his near triple-double against the Hawks. He’ll have another opportunity against the injury-depleted Heat on Friday. While he’s averaged a modest 11.6 points against Miami throughout his career, he’s turned into quite the Heat-killer as of late, scoring 27.7 points against them over their last four meetings. If Cole Anthony is forced to sit, Ross becomes even more enticing.

Larry Nance Jr. (PF/SF – POR): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Nance has been starting for the Trail Blazers as of late, and he’s been productive, especially on FanDuel, where he has averaged 26 FD points over his last three games. The Hornets give up the third-most FD points to his position, and this game has an O/U of 223.5, meaning it should be fast-paced and high scoring. I’m willing to play Nance on FanDuel, even priced $500 more than the other site.

Advantageous Pricing

• Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
• Jaylen Brown (SG/SF – BOS): $8,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
• Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $8,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
• Tyrese Haliburton (SG – SAC): $5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
• Davion Mitchell (PG/SG – SAC): $3,600 Draftkings, $4,700 FanDuel