Almost every year, dynasty owners overvalue rookie picks. However, everyone agrees that the 2022 draft class is dramatically weaker than the 2021 and 2020 draft classes. Yet, as we get closer to the NFL Draft, the hype will pick up around these prospects. While talent is the most important factor when evaluating a player, landing spot plays a critical role too. As talented as a player may be, he can’t score fantasy points if he isn’t on the field. Furthermore, he can’t score fantasy points if the quarterback struggles to complete a pass or the offensive line fails to block.

Until the draft happens, we won’t know where these players will end up. That’s the biggest reason you shouldn’t do a rookie draft until the NFL Draft has occurred. Two years ago, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) was a borderline late-first-round rookie pick before the draft. However, many fantasy owners made him the 1.01 pick after the Kansas City Chiefs selected him. Another thing to remember is that just because you like a prospect, it doesn’t mean his NFL team agrees. You may love what Demetric Felton (WR,RB – CLE) did at UCLA. However, he’s the fourth-string running back for the Cleveland Browns behind two Pro Bowl players. He will never turn into a consistent fantasy asset.

The most important piece of advice I have for dynasty owners is to hold onto your rookie picks. They have more value now than right before or during the rookie draft. Whether your league mates overvalue a certain player or bought into the last-minute hype, there isn’t a better time to trade away rookie picks than during your draft. For this article, I used 1QB league ADP data from Faceoff Sports Network. Let’s take a look at the upcoming rookie class.

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FIRST ROUND

1) Treylon Burks (WR – Arkansas)
2) Breece Hall (RB – Iowa State)
3) Isaiah Spiller (RB – Texas A&M)
4) Garrett Wilson (WR – Ohio State)
5) Drake London (WR – USC)
6) Kenneth Walker III (RB – Michigan State)
7) Jameson Williams (WR – Alabama)
8) Chris Olave (WR – Ohio State)
9) George Pickens (WR – Georgia)
10) Kyren Williams (RB – Notre Dame)
11) David Bell (WR – Purdue)
12 Jahan Dotson (WR – Penn State)

What stands out first is Walker at pick 1.06 as the third running back off the board. He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 211 pounds in Indianapolis. More importantly, Walker is coming off an impressive 2021 season at Michigan State, totaling 1,636 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns to go along with an average of 6.2 yards per carry. While some will point to his 13 catches last season, Michigan State rarely targeted running backs in the passing game. Walker showed off natural hands during the drills at the combine and has three-down potential in the NFL. After his combine performance, he is the clear RB2 behind Hall for me.

While the ADP is based on 1QB league mock drafts, it is still surprising not to see a quarterback in the first round. However, without a clear QB1 this year, it’s understandable. Unlike 2021 with Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC), 2020 with Joe Burrow (QB – CIN), and 2019 with Kyler Murray (QB – ARI), there isn’t a slam dunk QB1 this year. Regardless of where the quarterbacks land in the NFL draft, fantasy owners in 1QB leagues likely won’t see one go off the board in the first round of their rookie drafts.

SECOND ROUND

13) Rachaad White (RB – Arizona State)
14) Malik Willis (QB – Liberty)
15) Trey McBride (TE – Colorado State)
16) Wan’dale Robinson (WR – Kentucky)
17) Christian Watson (WR – North Dakota State)
18) Matt Corral (QB – Ole Miss)
19) James Cook (RB – Georgia)
20) Justyn Ross (WR – Clemson)
21) Tyler Allgeier (RB – BYU)
22) Kenny Pickett (QB – Pittsburgh)
23) Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – Alabama)
24) Skyy Moore (WR – Western Michigan)

The ADP will change between now and the NFL draft. It will also change a lot once the NFL draft is over. However, you likely won’t see a quarterback end up with a first-round ADP in 1QB leagues. That said, don’t be surprised if Willis, Pickett, or Corral turns into an early-second-round pick. Depending on the landing spot, any of them could have an easy path to starting as a rookie. If one of them does, expect that quarterback to be the first one drafted in most, if not all, rookie drafts. Outside of the quarterback position, the second round has some interesting names.

After posting a 4.41 40-yard dash time and a 34.5-inch vertical jump at the combine, Moore could turn into a top-50 pick in the NFL draft. If he lands with a receiver-needy team like the New England Patriots, Moore could sneak into the bottom part of the first round in rookie drafts. Another interesting prospect is Cook. Don’t discount the Georgia product, best known as Dalvin Cook’s (RB – MIN) younger brother. Not only did he run a 4.42 40-yard dash at the combine (0.07 seconds faster than his brother), Cook also projects as a weapon in the passing game. With only 297 career touches in college, Cook has plenty of tread left on his tires for the NFL.

THIRD ROUND

25) Zamir White (RB – Georgia)
26) John Metchie (WR – Alabama)
27) Jerome Ford (RB – Cincinnati)
28) Sam Howell (QB – North Carolina)
29) Jalen Wydermyer (TE – Texas A&M)
30) Dameon Pierce (RB – Florida)
31) Jalen Tolbert (WR – South Alabama)
32) Bailey Zappe (QB – Western Kentucky)
33) Hassan Haskins (RB – Michigan)
34) Desmond Ridder (QB – Cincinnati)
35) Khalil Shakir (WR – Boise State)
36) Romeo Doubs (WR – Nevada)

Some view the third round as only good for dart-throw players. However, there are a couple of really intriguing players in this round. Pierce will likely be a fourth- or fifth-round pick in the NFL draft. However, he could turn into a favorite draft target for me, depending on where he lands. For example, if the Miami Dolphins were to take Pierce in the fourth round, that would be a terrific landing spot for him.

Pierce had a terrific senior season, totaling 16 touchdowns on only 119 touches. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in college and had back-to-back seasons with at least 17 receptions to close out his college career. With only 374 career touches, Pierce has plenty of tread left on his tires. Another player in this round who could turn into a steal is Metchie. He will slide during the NFL draft since he is recovering from a torn ACL. However, he had a career year as a starter in 2021 with Bryce Young (QB – Alabama) under center. Metchie had a team-high 96 receptions for 1,142 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. If he lands with a veteran quarterback, don’t be surprised if Metchie turns becomes a consistent fantasy contributor by midseason.

Notable Players Outside the Top Three Rounds

Isaiah Likely (TE – Coastal Carolina)
Alec Pierce (WR – Cincinnati)
Carson Strong (QB – Nevada)

The three players outside the top 36 ADP who intrigue me the most are Likely, Pierce, and Strong. I’m shocked that Likely is outside the top 36 in ADP. Some believe he is the best or second-best tight end in the draft class and a likely top-64 NFL draft pick. He’s a solid blocker and a mismatch weapon in the passing game. If Likely lands with a TE-needy team like the Tennessee Titans or New York Jets, he could skyrocket into the middle part of the second round in most rookie drafts.

While Ridder gets most of the media’s attention, Pierce might have been the best player on Cincinnati’s offense last season. Despite being labeled a physical receiver, Pierce has speed in his game. The 6-foot-3 wide receiver ran a surprising 4.41 40-yard dash at the combine while also having a 40.5-inch vertical jump. Pierce averaged at least 17 yards per reception in each of his final three years at Cincinnati. More importantly, he had a career-high eight touchdowns in 2021. Pierce will likely be a third- or fourth-round selection in the NFL draft. If he lands with a WR-needy team like the Detroit Lions, he will be a steal at his current ADP.

It’s no secret that the quarterback class lacks a superstar talent or a must-have prospect. However, Strong is someone you should keep an eye on. While he has a semi-extensive injury history, Strong has plenty of natural talent. He can make tight-window throws downfield and throws off-platform. Furthermore, Strong has put together back-to-back seasons of high production, averaging 334.9 passing yards and three passing touchdowns per game over the past two years. His injury history will impact where he goes in the NFL draft. However, if you play in a fantasy league with a taxi squad, Strong is a player to target. He might not play as a rookie, but if he can stay healthy, Strong has long-term starter potential.

Sleeper Running Back Targets

Keaontay Ingram (RB – USC)
Ty Chandler (RB – North Carolina)

Last year, anyone who drafted Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) in the fourth or fifth round of their rookie draft ended up feeling pretty good during the season. When David Montgomery (RB – CHI) suffered a knee injury, Herbert stepped up. He was the RB18 in the four games Montgomery missed, averaging 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game. The two players I really like in the final round or two of your rookie draft are Ingram and Chandler. Both had limited production in college. However, they produced when given a chance to play.

While Ingram was at Texas from 2018 to 2020, he was the featured back only in 2019. Ingram averaged 5.9 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns on 173 touches that year. He also had a career-high 29 receptions for 242 receiving yards in 2019. Ingram transferred to USC in 2021 after superstar Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas) was named the full-time starter for Texas. Unfortunately, USC had a down season, which impacted Ingram. Yet, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and had five rushing touchdowns behind a shaky offensive line. Ingram won’t be a starter in the NFL. However, if he lands in a situation where he can earn the backup role, fantasy owners need to target him in their rookie drafts, especially if they own that team’s current starter.

After North Carolina sent Carter and Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) to the NFL last year, many thought the Tar Heels’ running game would suffer. However, Chandler transferred in from Tennessee and took over. He had 182 rushing attempts for 1,092 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns to go along with an average of 6.0 yards per carry, all career-highs. Chandler likely won’t be a top 150 pick. However, fantasy owners need to keep an eye on him wherever he lands. In the final round of your rookie draft, it’s all about the upside. Herbert, Jaret Patterson (RB – WAS), and Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) were fourth- or fifth-round rookie picks last year. Don’t be surprised if Chandler turns into this year’s version of Mitchell.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive follow him @Mike_NFL2.